Member Info for CrustyPete

PeakyB, well I am not saying this will happen or is even likely BUT there are far more shares in issue now so that would factor in PLUS if all that was raised for the Galactica project were to have been spent and it were to fail dismally with no return on that investment in the form of "income" that asset value would disappear with it...

My view on possibilities and again these are likely to be trashed by both the rampers and the derampers equally but, hey who cares?!

Purely on Galactica conclusion of development drills and income H1 2025 (June). Add 0.5 - 0.75p

On ML approval 0.75 - 1.0p

On funding of Rukwa without dilution 1.0 - 1.5p

Add all that up 3.15 - 4.15p (offer).

However these numbers are without knowledge of the details of the Feasibility Study and CPR and these are hugely material, hence without these any numbers are pure guess work. Furthermore I do think at some point along this journey there will be some, albeit minimal, dilution in some form or other and that includes options like Farm-Outs and JV's which that will factor in those figures above. Though don't ask me how without details.

The problem being Bob that it might well be sooner; with the Scope trial results due out mid year (5-6 months), the prospect of Genmab developments and the chance that someone might take a strategic interest or full bid in the meantime. It would be a risk that anyone sitting on the sidelines might miss out. I, for one, am happy to be patient and await that "inflection point". I have "dry powder" to pursue other possible opportunities in the meantime. I just would not want to put too many eggs in this one basket.

Or perhaps to speak to alternative partners? Getting multiple partners into a bidding war would be very useful...

I have no intention of selling Punter, I only wish that I could justify buying more at this price but I am top heavy already - and underwater.

Well I thought yesterday's interview and webcast were very positive and reassuring and yet today the selling continues. It beggars belief. What has the company got to do to generate some positive buying interest?

It seems the "inflection point" has yet to arrive.....

Okay, thanks for the clarification. Well maybe then the progress is for them to exercise their option?!

I can't disagree with that gordon - though at least with Cambay we have a partner that has money in their pocket and who are positioned to earn a huge amount from it when eventually it does come on stream. I will wager now that Cambay progresses and reaches a conclusion far sooner than Medway and yet Medway has a considerable head start.

But yes it is unlikely to make a significant difference to the sp any time soon.

I also hope that as well as you suggest below there is also discussion of progress on the Cambay CCS project - that could be transformative. That said, the wheels turn slowly in India so that is probably more than a little optimistic.

Wolfman - it is not "insider dealing" if the financials you refer to are issued to the market or put in the public domain. Quite the contrary - it is more likely to be considered a "breach" of LSE rules NOT to publish them. A company has an obligation to issue all price sensitive information to the market as soon as it becomes available - primarily because not releasing it increases the chances of leaks and "insider dealing"....

Similar but different:

https://www.trinitydelta.org/companies/scancell/

Because if they took it private BP, AEX and therefore ARA, would no longer have access to very cheap capital markets and shareholders who fund 71% of the costs and 71% of the risk on any exploration and dev before then, having largely derisked the assets, selling it on to their "cornerstone investors" for a fraction of its real value....

There have been umpteen times in the past when the sp was a fraction of what it is today and AA could have bought AEX for not much more than the $40m that it paid for their 50% Farm- in to Ruvuma; if they were ever going to do it that would have been the time. But even then in doing so they would have killed the goose that lays the golden eggs - that is you, me and every other shareholder for their continued capital injections de-risking licenses for their paymasters - ARA.

Thank you Chelsea, very useful.

Punter where can we find the Panmure and Trinity Ratings? Do you have a link?

Well everything is relative Juno - and their 100 million of share options is surely worth a damn site more than your £7000 of HEX.

I have a view and that view is that the chances are minimal to vanishingly small....

I agree with the many posters here that were reassured by the Proactive interview and I only hope that this afternoon's proceedings are equally positive and well received; if so we could see something of a bounce in the sp - though with the next material news some 5/6 months away, would it last? Let's hope EE's "prediction" regarding third party interest comes to pass.

£7000 Juno? Last of the big spenders eh?

If that is the measure of your confidence in HEX then I will keep my money where it is thank you....

Or perhaps a Farm-In to the Rukwa license...? It would achieve the same, or similar, result...

Agreed on the equity BB, likely to be equity in an existing or new Tanzanian Vehicle not the "Global" company.....