RE: question14 Dec 2013 14:39
Hi nomoney,
Tough question….To be honest on a trade by trade basis you can’t account for any moves based on a buy or a sell, there are many other factors going on in the background like buy or sell orders to be filled at a particular price on the order books. Often the price will move the opposite direction to how you would expect to encourage further buying or selling to match buyers with sellers, in theory all transactions should match off each day but clearly that’s not always the case as we see days when buys may be 2 or 3 time the sells, in this case you have to assume a large sell order is in the pipeline to be match. What tends to happen is there’s a period of odd movements over days or weeks then a large order one way or the other appears and the price starts to move in the correct direction again be that up or down.
I hope this helps, it’s in simplistic terms and I’m sure someone else could detail things better but to be honest everyone will just end up with a headache, this is always one of the great mystery’s in share movements.
Specific to this share, we have a situation where over 100M shares need to be sold over the next 3 years that are currently held in trust having previously been held by 2 of the founders of Partygaming (half of the current merged company we see today) these shares had to be sold as the two people in question did not want to be scrutinised by the state of NJ in our licence application (truth is they both have less than clean pasts) and we would not have got a licence if they remained major share holders. So to sum up we need a lot of buys to match these forced sells going forward and I fear this will slow any climb in the price compared to not having them hanging over us.