Member Info for Crocqman

We were being told "Few weeks here and there won't make a difference" back when Q4 last year, Jan this year, Q1, April, May, beginning of June were all target dates too.
It is unbelievable how many times the target date has shifted, even in the last 6 months
Yes, a few weeks more is not long to wait, but what are the chances that we will see yet another projected date (by the end of June, for example) before the end of next week.
Quite high I would suggest

I am certainly no gas plant engineer, but we have had posters here who have been involved in similar projects.
They were telling us back in April how they could not understand why Angus did not know to the exact DAY when we would have first gas, even when there were still many jobs outstanding.
And since then, the target date has slipped yet again, and the best they can give is 'middle of June' which still gives a leeway of 10 days or so. And that is after all those previous jobs are virtually complete.
Of course, no CEO would stick their neck out and confirm a date so far ahead, but it is the usual from Angus. delay, go quiet at times when news is expected, etc.
Something fishy definitely going on here. Maybe it is further negotiations in the background with a potential buyer that is stopping them from giving updates on progress (aside from those that need an RNS)

Original realistic target for first gas was way back in Q4 2021, so over 18 months late now, and costs have gone from a couple of £million to what?
No wonder Yanis decided enough was enough after the last RNS, especially with the amount he had in here.
I have been waiting more than 3 years since SFB was first announced, and have patiently held since then after the Brockham fiasco, willing to give GL and the new regime a chance to recover the situation.
Yes, the progress is tangible, and the end is in sight on SFB, but that does not mean investors should be jumping up and down at how well Angus are doing.
I have said before, any Bob ad Dave outfit could get SFB to this stage with the funds and time Angus have taken.
And the result is still no certainty, hence the current SP

Fortunately, due to much averaging down over the last few years, I'm currently only 2.5% down.
My conservative target is still 2p to 2.5p for first gas, but will certainly consider taking some profit if we get close to 1.50 again, depending on how quickly this moves.
Will be looking out for a sudden change in volume, or increase in large sized trades, as this will likely be an indicator of when we can expect imminent news.
gla
Too many false dawns, and the bod just love to torpedo the SP at the exact time we see some momentum and a change in sentiment here. We have seen that plenty of times in the past couple of years, running before they can walk, talk of other pie in the sky projects, etc Geothermal has gone pretty quiet after all the fanfare, for example.

HDT,
You would hope that with the regular income now, there would be no need for any further placings, and UJO would be able to access better options for accessing cash, if needed, and at more favourable terms for the company and shareholders.
I certainly hope that we have seen the last of the placings here.
My preference still remains for a special dividend, as I see any buy-back as pointless with the (relatively) low shares in issue after the consolidation.
This would also be a fairer and tangible reward to shareholders, particularly the PI's who are always trampled on, and last to get the scraps of any rewards from these AIM companies (Capital gains aside, or course).
Maybe we will see a combination of the two.
I feel it is too early for UJO to consider regular dividends, as cash will still be needed for other projects, but a one-off dividend could be supported until we get on with other projects, which have stood inactive for far too long (not all due to UJO, admittedly).
gla

No manipulation, for me, just very low volumes.
And a wait for news
Too many people reading too much into everything, no matter how small to try and explain why not much going on in respect of SP.

Agree that we will only see any real moves on news, and a big increase in volumes which are just too low. They need to be 10x plus greater than of late, imo.
Patience needed.
Speculation ok, but poring over every trade and every intra-day change in the SP, or spread is really not healthy.
gla

Hope this does take off spectacularly at some point.
Some will be 80% plus down currently here., so a big rise needed for many holders
Although averaged down at current levels, a long way to go for me for break-even.
Plenty of reasons behind the drop, not all down to the company, but a decent run of news would not go amiss.
My largest holding (book cost)
gla

Not sure what my post has to do with avoiding tax, SV.
Anyone can paint anyone else as being a hypocrite, no matter what they say or do.
Look through my posting history, I am sure you will find a post from last month, 6 months ago, or a year ago, or more that conflicts with what I may have posted in the last week.
Opinions and views change, as news and information becomes available. I suppose that makes me a hypocrite to many on these boards, as you cannot possibly change your opinion on a share, or be negative on some aspects, but invested for other reasons without being labelled a trader, shorter, etc

For the record, I do not, and never have tried to avoid paying any tax.
I really have no problem with paying tax, and the correct amount too, but I'm that sure you, or someone else will come up with some clever example to try and prove this is not the case,
As always on these boards, the exception is taken as being the rule, and definitive 'proof' that someone is deliberately trying to mislead, or are lying.

I do wish the posters on these small cap O&G boards would stop trying to spin that the company's are in some way answering the call to provide UK oil and gas for UK people.
They are not that altruistic.
They are doing it to make a profitable business for themselves.

The reason we import so much, is purely down to the short-termism decisions made in parliament by successive governments, cost-cutting measures, and lack of investment in infrastructure.
Our politicians are only interested in getting re-elected, so will not make unpopular long-term decisions that would benefit this country (see Heathrow expansion, trident, HS2, etc, etc) where things are kicked into the long grass for years for someone else to decide.
Meanwhile, costs spiral, and when decisions are eventually made, friends and fellow politician's interests are always at the front of the queue for those big money contracts.

It's great what these small cap company's can potentially pull off, and I hope that they do, but they will not be selling at a discount to help with the energy crisis, they will be looking to maximise returns for themselves first and foremost, shareholders (maybe) second.
But, if there is a happy coincidence that it results in lower energy prices in the UK (not that likely given the proposed quantities vs demand), I'm sure they will gladly take the plaudits for doing so.
Of course UK production will help, but not in the way being touted here.

A joined-up approach with a realistic and achievable long-term energy plan is needed that encompasses ALL different types of energy is what is needed.
I don't believe fracking will play a big part. The big-guns will push for it, and may get approval, but for the minnows, it will be unlikely, imo

I also firmly believe that any long-term energy plan should 100% be a cross-party decision to ensure a continuation of any agreed steps, rather than the usual stop-start, back-tracking and changes being made whenever a new leader, or party gets elected. (same with projects like air, road and rail infrastructure).

We need a sea-change in politics. More collaboration. Less cheap point-scoring. More modern policies with a cohesive long-term strategy at its core.

Thanks itsawrap.
Have not really been following news here of late, was more answering on the technical side.
Good to see some likely detail though

Henry,
Not sure if I have misunderstood your question, or if you have a suitable reply.
Unbelievably, your post is the only one out of 60 so far today that I can actually see due to my filters(!!), but it is the company themselves (UJO) who would be buying the shares back.

The shares would then most likely be removed from the register, thus reducing the number of shares in issue.
The idea being that if the MCAP was to stay the same, the SP would have to go up to maintain the status quo.
It does not always work like that though.

The company would generally specify a timeframe that any buy-back was intended to be completed over, and how many shares they intend to purchase to complete the exercise.
They would also likely have a max SP in mind to buy back, and would probably restrict any purchases on an adv basis, as good market practice.

As I have stated in the past, my preference would be for a Special Dividend to be paid, as since the consolidation, the number of shares in issue is really not that big currently, for an AIM share, imo.

There has been talk of this subject before, but much of the chat on here is of a personal nature, rather than company related, so easily missed.
good luck

Agree itsawrap.
I am no expert on the O&G industry either, and have no real intention on being one.
I have a realistic view, and a better understanding of markets in general, and can see quite easily why this is not moving, or is not currently undervalued as some keep trying to tell us it is.

Have posted enough times on this. Delivery. And meaningful numbers too.
And no matter what anyone keeps saying, this is not going anywhere near £1. I would say 40p more realistic with actual quantifiable return on additional assets.
That is my target and exit point here, I have been here too long to expect anything more.
How long to wait though?
Too many times this has crept slowly towards a reasonable mcap for the assets held only for the company themselves to torpedo the SP with their own actions.
As is often seen with these small cap shares, hence why high risk, high reward,. Only the risk here heavily outweighs the potential reward, imo
gla

Thanks for the feedback on the open day.
Always good to see the local interest and point of view.

Missed my chance to add more in the teens, but back in profit here now.
I'm sure there will be further opportunities to add at a lower level in the coming months, but no worries if not.
One of my top 5 biggest holdings, and one for the long term.
gla

I agree that Angus is a very different company to when GL took over, and have said this for over 3 years now trying to negate all those who tirelessly referred to the SP when he started to now, which is a very false position given what he was 'lumbered' with by he departing PV.
Sadly, he has still not delivered anything meaningful though in over 3 years, despite the promise of SFB, other assets, and mooted projects. Meaningful as in quantifiable cashflow, not the piddly sums from Lidsey and Brockham.
As ever, it is the above that is dictating the SP.

Regardless of what this 'should' be worth according to the many experts who keep giving us figures based on production, side-track, etc, the market just does not trust Angus, as seen quite clearly by a circa 20% drop on news this week.

It is pointless owning 100% of SFB if you can't get it to produce, and at the figures, or greater than anticipated.
One week from anticipated production and we are told it will be "towards the middle of June", so a near 2 week delay.
It really is shockingly bad, they should be throwing staff at this 24/7 to get this producing.

I have reduced my estimated target SP down to closer a 2p level, the bottom of my original estimate, and I will look to sell at least half if we get to that level on production, maybe the lot.
I have been here too long to afford Angus any time beyond SFB production for my investment

Let's hope for a change in fortunes (again) since for something like the 5th time, Angus themselves have scuppered the SP at exactly the time that sentiment was changing and the SP was getting some momentum.
You couldn't make it up really
gla

While I have all of the naysayers filtered, let's not forget that they have all been accused regularly of moving the goalposts the closer we get to first gas, and changing the narrative from one issue (e.g. gas won't flow), to another (e.g. side-track will not be a success), and yet all those pro-ANGS experts confidently predicting first gas by first of June and shouting down everyone who suggested otherwise are now saying a few weeks does not matter, 100% ownership, GL masterstroke, etc.
It works both ways

The truth is, even the experts on here don't seem to know as much as they like everyone to believe (remember Alan from Balcombe/Brockham days?). Unless you are onsite, and directly involved in the project, no one really knows
Everything is just speculation, until we get confirmation.
Market is reacting as expected given the history here.
Once more, this will only move North on SFB delivery, and at the expected rates. How many times have I said that in the last 6 months?
More than 17 months later than originally expected, considerably more expensive than initially estimated, nothing ANGS says or does should be a surprise to anyone, even at this late stage.

Surely there will not be yet another twist between now and first gas "towards the middle of June" though? Even at this stage, I would not discount it.
gla

Good luck to you CornishKnocker, and thanks for all your posts on here.
Looking forward to seeing you on a company group photo in the mainstream media in the not too distant future when major milestones are hit here

It has not been that long since the consolidation.
As pointed out, shares in issue is not that great, especially when you compare to other AIM companies.
I feel we will be looking at a special dividend.
A share buy-back does not make sense at this time.
Nor does the suggestion that the company will buy back shares and hold them with a view to sell later when the SP is higher. Don't think this is even permitted/possible

That article is more than 5 years old though and relates to events 2 years before that.
What about the MAR regulation that came into effect after this happened (2016)?
What about MiFID II regulation too (2018)?

As I said, the exception is always posted as proof that a factually based point is incorrect.
There will ALWAYS be ways around regulation, law, etc. It does not mean that it is going on all of the time, and does not mean it is going on here.
Yes, you can extend settlement, if needed on any trade, but you would need explicit approval from the fund house where your account is held to do this, and this is not in anyway a prudent way any fund manager would operate any client account to allow them to sell shares tat are not even on the official register.

Does everyone seriously believe that Aleph are immediately selling all the shares they have not even yet received the very second they are publicly announced?
A long standing supporter described by GL in the RNS "who have shown repeated commitment to Angus and have the resources and shared ambitions to grow Angus's production in hydrocarbons and support its plans in relation to alternative and renewable energies", is just after a quick 5% turn?

Whenever I question shorting on AIM, I have never been shown any proof in more than 5 years on here that a PI can short an AIM share, yet many posters regularly call other posters shorters.
An article on AIM short selling from about 10 years ago is always given as evidence that it is rife on AIM. Again, before the MAR and MiFID II regulations were introduced..

I stand by my comments. I do not believe that any of these new shares are being forward sold. I do not believe any fund house would permit Aleph, or any of the other strategic investors to do this when they are not admitted to trading, especially as they would have to buy them back if for some reason this deal does not progress.
It is not in ANGS' interests to hand out shares to investors who are not aligned with their strategy and who will just sell at the first opportunity.

Anyone can feel free to have a different opinion on any of the above

Posters on these boards do not seem interested in facts though.
Guesswork, speculation, taking a small point and extrapolating to the nth degree to get to a required result, and posting plausible possibilities is better received. It's the nature of these boards.
The exception (there will always be exceptions) is taken as proof to dismiss the most likely scenario based on fact.
No one can provide definitive proof for anything to be right, just like no one can provide definitive proof that it is not right. The truth is likely something somewhere in between the extremes promoted, but further away from the conspiracies promoted daily.

DYOR, trust in your own strategy, question what is posted here, make investment decisions based on news you can trust, and take responsibility for your own investment decisions

You would have to check with your provider.
It is an ISA eligible stock, so there shouldn't bean issue.
Perhaps the stock is not set up in their systems, not all securities will be available unless there has been a past request for it to be included in their data base and prices provided.
I had this with an IPO stock last year, I was not able to participate in the IPO and had to wait 20 days or so for my provider to set the security up after listing before I was able to place a trade. You can ask them to do this if not available, whether they do so, or not is another matter as they will be getting charged for the number of securities in their daily pricing feeds from whichever supplier they use, so may also delete securities from their system if there are no holdings and they are not used for a certain amount of time

You cannot forward sell shares that have not yet been issued, and are not included in the share total.
Another BB myth.
Any allocation will be 'hard blocked' separately on any clients account on a dummy identifier to stop any trade being able to be placed until such time as they are confirmed available at the custodian, only then will any 'new' shares be moved over to allow any trade be able to be submitted

Yes, at the end of the day, everyone should dyor, trust their own research/judgement, and be prepared to take appropriate action and take responsibility for their own investment decisions.
good luck