Member Info for Crocqman

When did ANGS say to the market to expect gas today?
The RNS (10/6) stated "Contractors are working toward a target date for first flow of well-head gas through the plant during the week commencing 20 June 2022 with first export (i.e. sales) nominations the week following.".

That means any time this week, not today, unless any interview since this RNS has said otherwise?
I am still sticking with 4th July as the earliest possible confirmation date though, given ANGS and deadlines

Yes. Everyone here was so excited about the gas discovery, and what it could produce for UJO. The test which produced unexpected oil that the equipment could not handle was an example of poor preparation/management, yet many here rejoiced at the oil over the gas. I would have preferred them to press ahead with the original plan, especially with the other assets, I guess DB had little choice though in the decision.
3 years of red tape, inactivity, etc to just go back to the original gas plan should not be cause for celebration, especially with the timescales given for further progress.
It will be coming up for 5 years realistically for WN to be finally producing vs original expectations.

Many will not want to wait that long based on previous promises, which is a real shame as the assets could be really good.
Definitely NOT a soon to be mid-cap company though, especially under current management, and with existing partners.

Reality vs Expectation = 2 totally different things, but the overpromising is what is needed to get those vital placing funds, sadly.
It's the same as SP highs based on hype vs SP based on delivery. Often a big difference, as hype gets people jumping on board, greed taking over, pushing the SP to unrealistic levels, and the reality often cannot match up.
Seen it so many times on AIM over the years. Over enthusiasm leads to an overly emotional attachment to a stock clouding rational thought to what is really happening and realistic views as to what could result. Those hyping all along then sell out and quietly disappear to the next big thing

I guess it is still possible that first flow of well-head gas through the plant could happen this weekend, still technically the week commencing 20/6, but would not be surprised if there is a further delay here, it is the ANGS way, after all.

Sticking to my previous prediction of first-gas (export/sales) no earlier than 4th July, but will be happy to be proved wrong on this.
A big week ahead here.
Other than Wednesday, nothing in the volumes here to suggest big news imminent, I'm sure we will see a change here before anything official, so will be keeping a close eye next week.
gla

Still not convinced this will get close to even 40p with what news can be reasonably expected this year.

The WN news, going back to plan A some 3 years after we were first hopeful of seeing gas, with next to nothing going on there since, was a real kick in the teeth, and I am struggling to see how this could get into the 30's now, tbh.

News re: potential dividend, or buy-back is surely the most likely SP boosting news we can expect any time soon?
Will be looking for something positive to give the SP a spike, hopefully in the next couple of weeks, then I think I will look to finally exit here.

My own fault for getting greedy and not taking profits when it hit mid-30's (old money) prior to the first of the many SP destroying leaked placings.
Circa 50% profit then has become a 30% loss now, and despite the good income currently coming in, any change to income that is not already priced in is likely to be closer to 18 months away, despite what the parties are suggesting, based on historical efforts.

All, imo
Not a de-ramp, just some realism (hopefully) brought about by frustration at past disappointments, continual delays, etc.
Sincerely hope UJO prove me wrong for those hoping for more, but no longer interested in holding and waiting.

UJO has been mostly a trading stock since that first placing leak, however those that bought in post-consolidation, sub-20's should be happy with their gains, and I have learnt from that with some of my other small-cap positions.
At least any sale proceeds here will cover my upcoming 2 week trip, and bring me more enjoyment too
gla

Can't see back to the 'early' late reported trade, but the other 2 look clear Buy trades given the bid/offer at the time execution..
They are reported as 'unknown' so a bit odd to say not to read much into them as they definitely happened!

Can't believe that people on these boards are still so ignorant of the buy/sell indicator on reported trades on sites like LSE, but then it is easier to moan and claim MM games than actually dyor and try to understand how trade reporting works.
Oh well

Disappointing to see the SP at the current levels.
Fortunately, I sold half my stake last year at the 150 high for a decent return, so have banked profit here, but bought again in the 70's thinking it wouldn't drop much further.
Haven't seen anything to change my view on what the company is doing, just a lot of factors out of the company's control which are affecting all markets, especially small caps.
Many investors are looking for short term gains in this period of uncertainty, so stocks like TGR will be out of favour, despite what the fundamentals may suggest, although someone did post an article elsewhere suggesting that HL were looking to invest in these markets again (AIM, etc) having sold a large stake in Shell, so we could see an upturn soon.

May add some more here in due course, but only if taking profits elsewhere to do so.
Happy to wait in the meantime unless I see anything to change my opinion here
gla

Volume currently just over 17m (per LSE)
On course for the higher end of standard circa 25m - 50m today range, so still not exactly huge, imo
50m volume = circa 3.5% of shares in issue.
Will not get excited until we see at least 100m volumes here.
A decent start though, as is the rise.
Just need some momentum here, which should not be far off if all is going to plan as the news stream should kick up over the next week or so
gla

Volume currently showing as <5.5m.
This compares to the (rough) recent daily volumes of circa 25m - 50m which is pitifully small in itself.
Not sure how any chart could suggest anything other than 'SP doing nothing' unless volumes increase.
We need 100m plus volume days to really to see any shift in the SP.
Sentiment still not there, regardless of how close this appears to be to first gas.
The market just doesn't trust ANGS, and investors seem happy to wait on the side lines for firm, positive news before jumping onboard
imo

This is the decision they should have made 3 years ago when they did the preliminary drill test and reported that "it is uncertain whether the well may flow oil or gas, or a combination of both" (24/07/2019 RNS and 29/08/2019 RNS).

So, they have effectively wasted almost 3 years to get to a decision to do what they were originally planning to do.
Unbelievable Jeff

Apologies for the long post.
Couldn't fit in all I wanted to say, but you get the gist, I guess.
FM's do not and cannot operate how a PI can, they are less flexible due to needing to protect their investors, and will often make decisions that do not appear rational to an outsider, particularly PI's who will be more emotionally invested in a company that is impacted by their decisions.
Easily done, you see it on most small cap boards, tbf

"No fund would shoot themselves in the foot and exit when a company falls below a threshold."

2 separate matters.

1. Yes, they would most definitely sell if a company falls below a threshold.
I have first hand experience of doing exactly this having worked within a Fund Management team for more than 6 years, responsible for managing portfolios within their required guidelines and taking appropriate action to ensure compliance, and subsequently on the flip side of the coin within internal Compliance for 7 years making sure that Fund Managers operated within their permitted guidelines.

They would not automatically sell if a company fell out of tolerance, but it would definitely flag up automatically with a permitted tolerance to allow for daily movements to ensure that if a company was close you didn't have to keep placing buy/sell trades and incur unnecessary trading costs.

Yes, if a Fund Manager was still keen on the stock, they would be permitted to maintain a position that was not in compliance for a 'short period of time'. The guidelines are often written to allow restrictions that are sufficiently 'woolly' to allow for some leeway in interpretation which a Fund Manager would often use as a case to take no action. This is where the relationship between the FM team and internal Compliance is important to ensure that the portfolio is managed 'within the spirit of the guidelines', and if a tolerance was breached for a certain amount of time (piece of string), the FM would have to put forward a good investment case to either maintain a position out of tolerance (why not add to bring into tolerance, etc?) and any breach would be referred to senior management for mediation on a decision, as ultimately, the FM is accountable to the underlying client.

etc, etc

2. Why would a Fund Manager be shooting themselves in the foot for selling? Maybe they no longer have an investment case for a company that has dropped below a certain MCAP, etc, or they see a better opportunity elsewhere in the short term but will keep the company on a watch list.

I get the points put forward, and yes, a FM will invest based on fundamentals.
There is a big difference between Fund Managers and PI's though.
Many PI's only seem to view a company though a 'PI lens' and think they see something in a company that a FM and their teams must have missed.
FM's are under much stricter rules to invest than a PI is, they have to make decisions based on strict rationale.

It works the other way too, if a company gets too big within a portfolio due to a big SP rise, they will be in the same position if the company weighting is too big, and they would have to sell to keep it from being too large a position in their portfolio.

No investors are the same (PI, Institutional, Fund), they will have different time horizons, risk appetite, etc.
PI's have so much more freedom when making their investment decisions. It is easy to lose sight that a PI mentality would not wo

tommy,
I have been on these boards with this name (my only ID) for more than 4 years, despite what the LSE member record states as my joining date.
I have posted on average twice a day in that time, and coincidentally make roughly the same now, despite posting considerably less frequently now than I did back in the heady UKOG/ANGS days of 2018/19 which were the reason for me signing up, and I post across multiple stocks now, not just one or two, as at the outset.

Supposedly working for the MM's for questioning a couple of £6k trade as being 'big', is a first though, although you are not that far off the mark as to my background within the industry (28 years) which allowed me to retire 5 years ago next week at 47.

I have never suggested anyone buy, or sell any stock. I have never changed my post 'opinion' on any stock from the default 'No Opinion', and my approach has always been to advise caution, dyor, and not to get greedy.

Each individual has their own reasons for investing, or not. Different time horizons, risk appetites, portfolio make-up, etc, so no one person will have the same motive for being here (other than to make money if they are invested).

There is a poster on another board with well over 10k posts, and if you read even one of them it would be clear that they are just a copy and paste merchant who does not understand even the basics about how markets work, or the sector they post on multiple times a day. I suppose they must work for the MM's too?

If you look at my posting history, I regularly call out posters who claim that every SP drop, lack of rise on news, etc is down to 'MM games', as well as other BS conspiracy theories regularly touted on these boards (e.g. Code 1 = RNS), despite being in the clear minority when it comes to theories behind what may or may not be going on in the background.

It's odd that you take offence with someone who is arguably more pragmatic, neutral, and realistic than most on these boards (imo), but good luck to you anyway, invested or not.

Now, back to ANGS.....

The PI mentality of some on these boards is hilarious.
"2 big 500k sells"
500k shares - 6k in value. A massive 0.035% of the MCAP.
And lets ignore the "huge" 1m buy and 500k buy just 8 minutes earlier than the first sell which resulted in the Ask moving up followed by the bid a minute later (going by LSE delayed prices/trades, not L2)!

Not sure why people would expect an uplift on today's news?
They are just reporting the status quo, nothing has changed, the income is known and continuing at the same levels.
Yes, it is good news that there is stable flows/income, but what is needed is NEW material news.

Not expecting much to change here unless the half-year results come up with something interesting, although guidance suggests unlikely, other than the actual amount of expected profit.

Positive WN action and any news on dividend will move this.
Good to see steady progress, but the markets want more

Well said Canchat.
It won't make the slightest difference though, sadly.
There are many bad posters and annoying posters on many boards, but the constant ping pong between these two is by far the worst. And it is relentless, both needing to have the last word on everything.

RNST provides some good points here compared to the majority, but his ego is getting of hand trying to best Heid at every opportunity.
Heid filtered for many months now anyway.
RNST now added to my filter list
gla

Imagine what a Director Buy RNS would do to things here

Agree.
I would say that the unknown 11:18 2m trade reported late was a buy too.
£20k size trades and above probably the smallest size trades I would be interested in here. Not huge in the grand scheme of things, but anything smaller not really worth worrying about unless there is a sequence of, say £10k size trades throughout the day

Thought we would see higher volume, tbh, after the decent start.
Looking like it won't be much different to the normal range (sub-3% of shares in issue).
Would hope for some 100m plus days as we get closer, but a nice tick up in any case.
Most here would be happy with small daily rises in the run up to main news.
Just hope that the bod do not find a way to torpedo the momentum like they have done at every step along the way over the last 3 years

oakley,

If you look at the official London Stock Exchange site, the news yesterday was a 'Reach' announcement, and not an RNS release.

Perhaps LSE only show official RNS releases, but not really checked this before, so cannot say for sure

An RNS is a regulatory announcement, a required method for updating the market on material news, whereas a Reach announcement is effectively just a news update of non-regulatory information that a company can send to a wider audience than another method (tweet, etc).
My understanding anyway

Volume looking good so far.
Daily pics of site progress will help to drive this over the next week or so.
We should be in a news rich period in the run up to 1st gas as final tasks get ticked off the list.
After much scepticism, I am almost starting to believe in a target date being met by the bod, but will still go with Mon 4th July as the likeliest that we will see a 1st gas RNS confirmation.
gla