The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
I guess in a roundabout way, what I am getting at is that everyone seems to be jumping on RG because he sees a different (lower) SP level than excited investors would like on funding, and has no figures to back it up.
Many of these posters will no doubt come back on here to gloat if he is proved to be wrong.
But because merc is very pro-KOD and has a basis for his figures, many just seem to accept it as 'reasonable', but none of those same people will come back on funding, or in a year's time and say anything if merc's predicted figures are wrong.
Of course we all want the SP to go North, but the so-called negative posters, who are always looking for a cheap buy-in according to every board, always cop the stick, even if they are proved to be right, which a lot of the time they are, whilst those who give solid predictions based on valuation metrics and then prove to be well out with their SP predictions always get a free pass because they are positive and confident of success and no one wants to challenge their 'respected' view.
I'm_Trying, I agree that valuation metrics can play a part, but they rarely seems to come close to potential with small caps as often a lot of other factors come into play (economic, sector, war, delays, etc). When in production with known values, is a different story. Just imo
I'm here for a return, like everyone, but I won't be getting carried away by large SP predictions as, unless the rest of my portfolio keeps pace when this rises, I will be taking profits along the way to reinvest elsewhere.
Yes, it is good to think big and dream of those big returns and there is plenty of evidence to show that it is possible, just like there is plenty to say otherwise.
KOD looks to be a better bet than many which is why I am here, just not getting carries away.
Note to self. Stop writing such long posts, or just watch from the side lines.
I will await news and see where we go
gla
Not wanting to get dragged into an SP prediction row, but in my years here, the posters making conservative SP targets on shares like this are more often than not the ones who are closest to being correct, and quite often they prove to be over-optimistic too.
No one share is the same though, so each has to be looked at one their own merits, and KOD has more going for it than many others do, so a better chance to buck the trend here, imo.
I have been open about taking some profits already due to personal % targets being met, Not interested in adding more, but will be taking some more off the table if we get a good rise on funding, subject to my holding limits.
Just my personal strategy.
Just because someone else has a different SP prediction to the majority, it does not automatically make them wrong.
It will be interesting to compare the predictions of RB vs those of merc over time, both on receipt of funding and for the various different scenarios in 12 months time.
I am still not convinced that any one of different valuation metrics works for stocks like this, so a differing SP prediction without any source to back it up could be just as good as a hunch as any that does. If it was such a simple process, we would all be making money all of the time.
Just my view. Interested to see how this plays out.
I am always ready for some humble pie for calling something wrong :-)
Hopefully we can all agree that we get the news that all outstanding conditions have been met, and the funding package is confirmed in the next 4 weeks.
gla
Sadly, I have to agree on SFB.
Circa a year and a half late and circa 10x the cost anticipated to get to first flow on original estimates with multiple revised first flow dates missed, and then the side-track similarly missing half a dozen, or more targets, and still awaiting full combined flow.
All the while the experts telling us it was all ok, delays were normal and not a problem (while seemingly trading in the background).
Awaiting an SP rise on combined flows before exiting here for good as none of the other assets, or potential projects are of interest. Currently at break-even but the bod and their projections are no longer to be trusted, for me.
gla
WG, Thanks for the reply.
As expected, a back-handed compliment that SFB 'appears to be successful', but with multiple negatives included on that achievement, and everything else.
And a 'positive' summary that is wholly negative.
Good to see that you have no agenda here and that you do not only focus on the negatives.
Tks again
It is a lot less than many would have hoped for though.
I want to see the figures in the results before passing any further comment.
Agree that there are many plants in progress, but that has been the case for too long. We need closures on deals/financing. Delivery, not potential.
Cash to help with financing and to reduce the reliance on fund-raising through placings should be the target.
As I have also said before, Europe and Nortfork are what I am interested in seeing news and tangible progress on. I have written off all UK projects as there does not seem to be the will in the UK to support and get projects like this these done unlike what we seem to be seeing in Europe.
Northfork could open doors to a big U.S. market, even just in California alone.
Let's see what tomorrow brings
WG,
You are perhaps the only 'negative' poster that I have not filtered on this board, along with some of the disingenuous pro-ANGS posters and others with clear agendas.
I have been around ANGS and similar shares long enough to know that those that have a more cautious, or negative stance as some will inevitably see it, particularly with certain aspects of a company, are generally more rational and better 'predictors' when it comes to SP targets than those who are clearly 'in love' with 'their' share, and who seem to view every set-back as a positive, or manage to find that elusive secret positive in a dire RNS that everyone else, analysts included have missed.
I made what I thought was a very cautious SP prediction in the 'guess the SP competition' of 1.95 for May 1st, and look how far that was out. Those predicting the average (circa 3p) and above started calling it a bit of fun and nothing to be taken seriously when they realised they were wildly inaccurate with their predictions.
Whenever I have taken part in these predictions on other boards in the past (rarely), I am always in the bottom quartile of SP targets, and have always proved to be over-optimistic.
I feel that I am a rational poster, albeit cynical much of the time here, but capable of seeing the positive and the negative in a share that I am invested in.
Your reply to Howey seems to be a case in point with your posting, you may be passing on your knowledge, but it is always with a negative slant. You say you do not focus on the negative stuff, but go on to mention only negative stuff.
Have you ever acknowledged anything that has been done well, or is going well here? I'm not sure that you have.
Seeing as you claim to have no agenda, perhaps you would like to comment on what ANGS is doing well, and what us "mug punters" should be excited about here?
And perhaps you could do this without putting any negative slant on it?
If you have no agenda, this should be straightforward for you with you knowing your stuff and wanting to pass on knowledge, which is why you are here?
I am sure many here will appreciate reading WG's ANGS positives and seeing if they fit in with their own view.
Thanks in advance
Agree chilting.
At these prices I would have loved to be adding but, but at circa 75% down and EQT being my third largest holding, I am not too sure on a short term bounce, personally and cannot justify any addition on current fundamentals, especially as my second largest holding has just been suspended at a 98% loss which I am unlikely to recover.
Perhaps there will be something in the results to change my view, but it would only be to add a trading position (in and out only) rather than for the long term, something that I have never really looked at here or elsewhere in the past, but am seeing more as the way to go with small caps - take some short term gain and move to safer dividend stocks, rather than build to a target and just hold. It has worked for me so far this year since changing my strategy.
As I have said many times here, EQT need to start closing deals/financing, and adding cash before the SP will move. Regain some credibility.
My expectation was that this would start in 2022, but it never materialised. It is imperative that 2023 does not become yet another year of promise, but with little tangible progress.
If it wasn't for these 2 stocks with big losses (and Ocado), my portfolio would be looking have been looking pretty rosy these last 2 years.
Come on EQT, give us something in the operational update to get behind, and provide some certainty regarding current and future cash requirements.
gla
Good post JamestII,
You get the impression that ANGS are looking to run before they can walk and will look to rush straight into another expensive (and lengthy) project, rather than look to optimise what they already have at what could be a relatively inexpensive cost, and monetise fairly quickly (for them).
You would hope that they have learnt lessons from SFB, and hopefully the new guy will take a more pragmatic approach to growth, rather than try and cut corners to save money and end up taking twice the time and many multiples of the cost to achieve the result.
Leave GL to interviews, PR and renegotiating funding with his finance chums
Although there was a sharp increase on the usual daily volume, it did not get close to the levels I thought the news would do, I was expecting closer to double tbh.
Still, the news today is a big step forward to getting those combined flows.
Hopefully, the volumes and SP will continue to make a steady rise this week and into next week too
gla
Not really a damp squib, the market is looking for combined flow rates.
And in line with, or above expectations.
It is all about the cash SFB can generate, as it has been since the side-track drilling commenced.
It is easy to come up with a figure based on each individual well as a likely combined amount, but we need actual numbers for all 3 together to get the market and investors excited and push the SP northwards
Yes, well done on a clear and concise RNS.
Will look forward to the change in production over the coming days until the 3 wells are producing in circa 1 week to 10 days.
Personally, I couldn't care less about the last paragraph about how Angus management is now able to deploy time and resources to monetising its other oil assets, developing a long-term transition storage capability at Saltfleetby, progressing its geothermal programme and exploring other strategic opportunities.
They should be concentrating still on SFB from now until all 3 wells are producing together. For the sake of 10 days or so, they should not be taking their eye off the ball with this.
gla
I believe that results are usually released at 7am on the date specified.
Not sure if this is market convention to enable analysts, etc to pore over prior to the market open, but I am not expecting the results to be that good. I am more interested in the operational updates in any case as YE 2022 was a write off here for me.
I see there is an RNS on the official London Stock Exchange website.
No information behind the suspension made at the request of the company
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/market-news/suspension-mode-global-holdings-plc/15938845
Waiting game. The 'suspension' is killing me. I'll get my coat
No ideas.
I only clicked here as I saw there had been a post and only then saw the suspension alert.
Hopefully, this will be pending the end game.
There appears to be an issue with LSE and other sites reporting RNS's this morning too.
The wait has been too long for them to realise any value. I had long ago written off my 4 figure investment here, just wanting to get something back to at least cover my HL fees for a few quarters and move on.
What a sorry saga this has been
Agree RT, any dividend in the near term is likely to be in the form of special dividend, imo.
I do not see ANGS getting to the stage of regular dividends any time soon, but a one-off is possible.
When this might be possible is another story.
It is worth noting that UJO are paying a dividend. Initiated with a special dividend last year, and with an interim dividend recently announced too. Something that was similarly promised, and many believed to be pie in the sky. I am not invested there btw
Personally, I would like to see ANGS start a buy-back program too, but I may not stick around to benefit from that
I checked the site several times over the last week, and could not see any questions submitted.
Is it new that they do not post questions and just add them and answer them at the end of each month so that no one knows what has been asked?
This seems to lack transparency, something which this IQ format was supposed to increase.
I expect the usual to jump on this as nit-picking and defend ANGS, but this method although answering questions that do not need to be RNS'd, is not in line with their published guidelines for submitting IQ's - they should update this page if they are not going to upload IQ's when submitted and just print everything at the end of the month.
Having said all that, there is at least some clarity now. It is just a shame that it has taken almost 2 weeks of silence for them to do this.
Frustrating as ever to be be invested here.
One point, their lovely infographics and past RNS's repeatedly stated that they expected well clean up to take a few days. One IQ states "We know from other Saltfleetby wells that clean up can take a number of months to achieve". And yet, to my knowledge, they have never told us this before. Also, this answer contradicts with another answer from the collated questions on the previous RNS. And many here wonder why many distrust the comms from the company. Over-promising and under-delivering indeed.
Let's see what tomorrows RNS has to say, it should provide additional stability to the SP at the current level at the very minimum. We will see
gla
Nice one smiler :-)
Whilst it would be good to get some additional II investment, much like many thinking the long stop date was set in stone and getting excited for the last few weeks, the £100m does not guarantee that they will come flooding in. It makes it easier for them to do so though.
So many criteria for some Fund Managers and II's when it comes to their investments, especially in the small cap space. Some will see KOD within their scope once funding hits the bank account, but many will still see barriers to investment through other criteria.
We are already over the £100m mcap that will be a barrier to some, a lot will have limits as to companies under £500m mcap though, and it is being on the AIM index itself that will be a barrier to many which will have small allowances for investment across the index as a whole, let alone the sector.
AIM is great at the outset for allowing companies to grow, and for raising funds, but it can become a millstone too - I think we are a long way off moving from the index, but the cash arrival will make this much less of an issue here, imo.
Some specialist small cap funds, or II's who do their own DD rather than be managed by investment houses themselves will be the target, and as Lav has posted the addition of a broker that can access larger investors is a big positive.
The biggest attraction to these investors for me, is the bod themselves, both through their management, and their direct investment into KOD - several small cap funds will only consider an investment when management is personally invested themselves (not options).
As with most things though, we can only speculate as to larger buyers coming on board through the sizes of the trades being seen. Only TR1's will confirm the change to the make-up of investors here.
gla
That price has to be a case of fat fingers, surely?
Price is almost 17% above the Ask.
Maybe someone trying to get out of the door quick before the long weekend :-)
Also, the large trade after reported as a sell is a price higher than the UT trade and at a later time, so potentially a Buy too?
Who knows, maybe see a correction of the 650k trade next week. Odd though