The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Thanks for your replies, Chesh.
Current reported volume today is 11.5 million, or 0.32% of shares in issue. That is low. Again
This needs circa 50m daily volume (ideally 100m) for it to be considered 'lots of trades', imo.
These large trades you talk of for 1m shares - these are roughly £12,000 in value, sorry but not large trades by any stretch.
There is a big difference between what is a large trade for a PI, and a large trade as far as the market is concerned.
I just do not see "loads of buys" when there is a total of 68 reported trades in a day with a combined value of £133k (buys and sells).
Hoping for an improvement, but it will need news, imo
gla
Agree, NoOneKnows.
I have said this a few times.
The UK is a mess in regards of getting anything done and for funding, so I have written off anything here. Any progress will be a bonus for me.
Europe seems more flexible in terms of government support and access to funding (via EU too), but projects seem to be smaller and perhaps more scaleable as a result.
The U.S. could be a big source of income, so it is imperative to have progress on Nortfork.
It is all about delivery though. Much will be out of the company's control, but what is has not been handled too well.
They need to restore some credibility, and quick. 2023 will soon be gone and tangible progress is needed by year end,
Still optimistic (I need to be with my average), just disappointed that the risk to add at these prices is too great for me given my current exposure, or I could seriously reduce my average. If I see signs of life, I may change this view.
gla
We will see go_ly_dow.
As I said, logic does not always come into play, and simple comparisons vs other shares falls into that category for me.
They are worth 'X' so we must be worth 'X plus' is too simplistic.
A useful indication to possibilities and potential, nothing more for me.
I will stick with my conservative estimate based on nothing scientific or logical, and hope to be wrong.
I am well aware that mcap is not the same as SP, just using SP targets as my estimate - any rerate to the SP (mcap) will not be the equivalent of the incoming cash being added to the current mcap. Thinking it is that simple will catch many out, imo.
To be clear, my comments relate to confirmation of funding only, nothing more. Production is a whole different kettle of fish.
Anyway, had my say. Off out for the day
gla
I still feel that many will be disappointed on funding confirmation, but I do have a more conservative outlook than many on these boards.
Assuming funding is confirmed this month (let's hope so) logic and simple valuation metrics would suggest a strong rise, but for me, much is already in the SP. Yes, I know it has been higher than currently, but that does not mean it will be multiples again with a cash injection.
A 100% rise is fanciful, imo, My expectation is around 0.90 - 1.00 on news which from here is still a good move.
Not meant a deramp, just feel this is realistic and have seen similar before elsewhere (reality not tying in to the expectation of the majority).
Hope to be wrong, of course and will hold my hands up if this is the case.
A further extension should not be discounted either. Feet firmly on the ground for me with this one.
gla
Look at the daily volume.
This has only broken 1% of shares in issue around 9 times in the last 3 months. That is very low.
Yesterday's volume was less than 0.1% of shares in issue and most days volume is not great, especially for a share with so many shares in issue..
There is no real indication that anyone is stockpiling shares, just like there is no real indication that anyone is offloading. This may change in due course, but it will need something to trigger a change.
Also, imo, there are no 'games' going on as many like to suggest.
The majority seem to be sitting tight, most unable to believe that this is getting close to 1p again when 2p plus and considerably higher was predicted after the 2nd side track.
I was conservatively hoping for 1.90 to 2p for a modest profit on a successful side track, but feel it could be 3 months plus (into Q4) now before getting back to my break-even with the permanent connection hopefully leading to a further rise in production, coupled with an increase in gas prices. Unless something major happens before then, of course.
I would certainly take a buy out at this stage and look to reinvest elsewhere
gla
Dear god, this board has turned to carp again.
Always the same suspects, always my dad is bigger than your dad carp and egos with their pathetic trolling and deliberate wind ups. Greed is good, yeah?
The so-called 'respected' posters here are now just as bad as the infrequent posters, maybe more so.
What a sad state this board has been for weeks with genuine KOD investors losing out due to the behaviour of outsiders as well as the planks invested here playing into the trolls hands by responding and encouraging the ongoing division.
Time for heavy use of the filter now here for me
Still early doors here really.
Much to do and until such time there is something tangible for the market and investors to really get behind it will likely continue its slumber.
In the last 6 weeks, we have seen the release of FY results and a detailed update on progress.
Dewatering is expected to take 18 months and is due to start 'this summer' (early August per 18/05 RNS)
CUSN need to keep to milestones and regularly update on progress, but personally, I am allowing 2 years for dewatering to be completed once started, because things always seem to take longer than expected, and weather may continue to play a part as it has already. If it is completed sooner, then great.
My average here is sub-25, so over 50% down currently. I would like to add more, but have a decent holding and most of my AIM shares are underperforming vs expectation currently, so wary of increasing within the AIM space until that changes.
More funding will be required at some point too, although likely not until late in 2024 (or maybe 2025 depending on progress). Production is not expected until 2026.
Not expecting much SP movement here for some time other than the odd peak and dip, but happy to hold here in the meantime. Patience definitely needed
Yes, a good update, but not surprised with the SP action
I missed the recent dip due to lack of funds, but have taken a hit elsewhere in order to add some more today.
Sub-60 average, but plenty more news to come here
gla
Yes, happy with the progress of late after initialling buying in at a $275-$300 range in my ISA around 9 months ago.
Will continue to hold these for the long term, but getting close to my Sell target for my non-ISA positions bought around $115-$120 at the turn of the year.
Tesla is currently my largest holding and I wish to reduce this more in line with other positions (and any profit is good being my new mantra from 2023).
I may await the earnings to cement any decision, but will see how this fares over the coming weeks
gla
There are no declared shorts on this stock and the last reported short position was closed in May 2018 (from official LSE daily report).
Despite the constant chatter on these boards it is next to impossible for a PI to short stocks like this. In more than 6 years on these boards only 1 poster has ever been able to provide evidence that they were able to short an AIM stock (UKOG some 4 years ago).
PI's shorting is a myth, a cheap shot to discredit an opinion.
Try contacting your provider and ask if you can open a short position on EQT. DYOR
Good to see this upward trend over the past 2 weeks.
Had been hoping to add some more in the low 40's but expected funds from elsewhere have not materialised, so will hold tight now.
Still down on my investment, but unconcerned and with news expected soon will hopefully this will push on again in due course.. The SP is likely to take a breather at some point before then though, imo
gla
Good to see this has been moving back up of late.
Circa 65% up in a little over 2 months from a low of 40.
Hopefully, this upward trend continues.
Well said Sage.
Push is back and already this board is all about Push.
Push who called everything right. Apart from all those things he got wrong, but they were all the fault of somebody else not doing what he would have done.
Reminds me very much of the other resident expert Alan from the Balcombe/Brockham days who was always right and would never accept an alternative point of view.
I filtered Push long before his apparent melt down (or unwarranted pile on when he was hounded from this board, depending on your view) where he supposedly (ahem) asked LSE to remove his posting history to stop his detractors from benefitting from his knowledge.
I said at the time of filtering that his arrogance and bragging about his trading was getting too much on this board.
New alias already filtered for me
gla
Have you seen the volume today?
Pathetically small at circa 1/3 of a % of shares in issue currently, i.e virtually nothing. The direction of tiny trades is immaterial and there are no games going on here.
Investors have lost interest due to the delay (yes, it is a delay, not an extension) and volume will stay low until there is news and sadly, the SP may drift lower too, despite cries of oversold, bargain, etc
Hold, buy, or sell, make your choice.
I will hold. Not interested in adding, and no need to sell. Will await news and make decisions based on information from KOD, not speculation or theories from those on both sides trying to influence investors.
gla
I like the quote from Jambone to Jez: "you are desperate to get your point across"
Jez - 35 posts on QBT in the last 30 days
Jambone - 379 posts on QBT in the last 30 days
It's quite easy to spot the emotionally invested poster on these boards
It's a common tactic from them (Moley Fool).
They make one article saying a share is a sell then another claiming it is a buy.
They can them claim they were right further down the line by referencing whichever article fits the future actuality.
The only real surprise is how many people actually seem to read their articles and post them on here as a 'factual' source
Lav,
Many (not you, I or a few others) always saw the original long stop date as set in stone guarantee and were posting expecting their big rises on the back of it.
Some still seem to be banking on that happening again, despite a further extension being a distinct possibility at this stage.
In terms of a delay, KOD have I believe said they intend to be in production within 1 year of receipt of funds. In that regard, surely this means this is a delay as they will not have moved this intention to 11 months on the last extension, and will not still look to achieve this in 10 months if there is a further 1 month extension?
Technically, the extension is a delay as receipt of cash has not happened which means work cannot be stepped up, but it is any delay to potential production on the back of the agreement/cash that will be more concerning with further extensions as far as the market is concerned.
The SP help up well on the last extension, perhaps it was expected given the ambitious timeline. With the current malaise seen elsewhere seemingly impacting the SP here though, we could perhaps see this drop further if we get another one. Just a consequence of market irrationality, even if the final outcome is still no different
We will see in the next week. Still holding. No plans to add and will await news to reassess the situation, but no change to the fundamentals as things stand other than 'time'.
gla
Just to add, MiFid II was implemented back in Jan 2018 with the aim to make markets more transparent.
Sadly, because of the ability to delay report trades and the various powers the MM's have within their remit, etc there is maybe as much opaque-ness as far as the PI is concerned within the markets as before, especially when you consider that the direction of any trade is never reported, hence the very clear confusion at times as to whether any trade is actually a buy or a sell due to the ineffectual methods sites like this use to try and guess the direction.
It certainly does not help when trying to apply logic to explain what might be going on
Seeing as they never replied to, or acknowledged my polite email asking several non price sensitive questions, I will not bother.
They will just handpick questions to answer what they want in a way that is positive and promotes EQT as an attractive and exciting investment.
I am only interest in delivery, closing funding deals and getting cash back into the company to further growth as many have been expecting from the beginning of 2022 (probably even longer for some too).
Not interested in cheap talk and sound bytes
Everyone can speculate as to what might be happening, but the truth is that no one will know for certain.
Any theory can sound plausible with the right spin based on fact, or an interpretation of fact, and while there may be documented evidence as to what could explain it, or what could be going on, absolutely no one can actually prove that their theory is true so there will always be doubt and counter opinion.
As I post many times on these boards, there are always exceptions to the rule. The problem with these boards is that the exception is often promoted as being the rule as it is not possible to disapprove it. Hence constant reference to MM games, manipulation, fishing for stop losses, stock being oversold, etc.
When the SP goes down for no apparent reason, there is always something dodgy going on in the background as it is easier to cry foul to try to explain something that does not appear rational, but when the SP rises for no apparent reason we are too busy slapping each other on the back, congratulating ourselves for our savvy investment decisions. No one seems to question unexplained rises. Why is that?
For my money, it is not down to manipulation, but it is easy to see why many will think that with delayed trades (prior approval is needed to delay report). large spreads, etc.
Just look how many different exchanges there are and how many stocks on each index. Then look at the same in Europe, Asia, USA, etc. There will not be some MM employee sitting looking at the ANGS share and making decisions to drop the SP to get some volume, or for fun. Trading is mostly negotiated, or Algo driven in the main and will be driven mostly by supply and demand in order to try and create volume at the right level/spread.
And yes, there will always be exceptions as no system is perfect, and there will always be people looking to make a few quid for themselves on the back of others (just look at the 2-faced traders on here).
The real reason is likely something far more simple, or a combination of several things. Maybe the market has just lost interest in ANGS after the side track, flow rates are around what is expected, the real cash position is still a question mark, etc.
Markets are not rational, hence AIM is high risk
Just my thoughts. We all have our own view.
gla