Member Info for Croasdalelfc

Wow! The new well declined to 412 boepd in August - a laughable 25% decline in a month.

I doubt they will get back the $2.2m invested to complete the well never mind the $8m - $10m spent drilling it. Gross revenue will take 2 years or more to reach $2.2m . Of course that gross revenue would be subject to tax, royalty, transportation costs, water disposal costs, opex and maintenance capex

The placing wasn't to complete 3 wells and drill another 2.

It wasn't to get to 4000boepd by end year.

It was to line the pockets of directors for another year or two whilst the whole company slowly declines inline with production and then they will try to rinse and repeat

The new well produced 600 boepd average for 5 days of June which then dropped to 550 boepd average for July. So end July it’s probably down to 500 boepd. In Sept … probably close to 400 boepd… but we need to wait until mid Nov to know for sure That is an awful result and blows away the board,s rationale for raising $5m in the placing. $2.2m spent completing the well which will take probably 18months just to pay that back ( not accounting for tax, royalty, transportation and the capex on drilling the well in the first place).

If netback is $6 per boe ($1 per mcf) if will take 4 years to pay back the $2.2m…that’s a joke well

If East Pepper contains NGL, condensate then 'its a whole new ball game' as Marshall Abbott said in an interview in Feb.

Peter Cowling, President of Front Range, stated, "In my experience, it is remarkable for a well to exhibit this kind of productivity from only a 10-stage completion, particularly this early in the delineation of a play. These results confirm our view that the Pepper Montney play compares very favourably with other established fields in terms of reservoir quality, pressure, and productivity. Despite operational challenges encountered during drilling that limited our lateral length and completion program, we are seeing flow rates and pressures that are suggestive of a top-tier Montney resource. Productivity per frac came in at 436 mcf per day (4,360 mcf divided by 10 stages), which stacks up very favourably against established deep basin Montney fields with 60 or more wells. Determining per frac productivity and confirming the presence of oil in the Basal Montney were key deliverables for us in this well. Productivity per frac is an important metric in that it indicates how we would expect total well productivity to scale in future wells with longer laterals and higher stage counts"

https://www.globenewswire.com/fr/news-release/2017/05/08/1268033/0/en/Front-Range-Announces-Montney-Test-Results-at-East-Pepper-Alberta.html

NB West Pepper was a 31stage Frac - East Pepper was just 10 stages

New updated vid https://twitter.com/croasdale01/status/1490753940488691713?s=21

Tapis Premium has extended since November from $4.5 to $6 https://www.aip.com.au/pricing/international-prices/international-market-watch

Not sure if this is allowed but here goes:

https://twitter.com/croasdale01/status/1478692333633818624?s=20
https://twitter.com/croasdale01/status/1478299874936430595?s=20

Ian

The initial opinion was the deal could be completed quickly but the regulator NZPAM are in effect civil servants closed at Xmas for 2 weeks and having to implement new legislation - they always proceed slowly.
JSE/OMV are first movers in the process - at the front of the queue and just have to wait patiently in line .

Check the new provisions: These changes will take time. What is another quarter after 3 years?
https://www.nzpam.govt.nz/about/news/crown-minerals-decommissioning-and-other-matters-amendment-act-passes-what-it-means-for-the-petroleum-industry/

The 3rd and Last Reading of the NZ bill is due next week. It should reach Royal assent by the start of December. Completion of the acquisition should add 10p a share just from the cash alone .Perhaps 15p all told

It had 2nd Reading in the early hours of this morning. The next stage - Committee of the Whole House is tonight -

3rd Reading and royal assent should happen in the next two weeks.

Then is regulator approval - rubber stamp! - and then Minister approval - it’s her new law so should be keen to crack on.

NB ~$70m cheque coming to JSE in Q1 2022 along with 10m 2P reserves and 3000bopd .
Plus plans to expand that to ~5000bopd via cheap coiled tubing drills from well head platform.

23/24kbopd is very possible in 2022. At least 8.5m barrels at ~ $80 - I’ll let you do the math :)

2nd reading yesterday/today :)

https://www.parliament.nz/resource/en-NZ/OrderPaper_20211110/0e4403e275980ee96a5010c62173189f64ed0cd3

Page 7
Remember: once across the line this brings 3000 bopd (with potential to grow to 5k) 10m 2P reserves and a nice FAT cheque of circa$60-$70m

An operational update will follow completion of the workovers - they are a few days overrun - Day 54 (projected schedule was 52 days). Hopefully next week for an update.

Below are links:
1. Tender for Lemang gas processing facilities and gas pipeline -
2. News article about laying pipeline to start May 2022
3. Jadestone issued withdrawal notice to Hexindo (EnecoEnergy) for the remaining 10% of Lemang under Terms of the JOA. Hexindo haven't paid up for works done so JSE claiming the remaining 10% de facto.

headline : New Jadestone Energy Pipeline Installation To Be Carried Out In 2022

https://detail.id/2021/11/pemasangan-pipa-baru-jadestone-energy-akan-dilaksanakan-tahun-2022/
https://www.tender-indonesia.com/Project_room/category_form.php?CAT=CT0006
http://www.enecoenergy.com/investor.ramba.com/newsroom/EEL_Gen%20Annmt_Withdrawal%20Notice%20by%20Jadestone.pdf

Looks like Lemang is going ahead in 2022 with or without Hexindo. 5.5kboepd for a plateau of 6-8 years @ $5.6 per mmbtu

Production from Maari in Q3 was 3243 net to JSE prospective 69% or around 300k barrels to JSE in the Q. I had anticipated 320k barrels but MR8 shut in early August due to ESP failure. Workover started mid October

Been watching the Valaris rig for 120 days as I have a position with Jadestone and a newer one with Advance . 3 vessels moved it from previous drill for OMV . Skandi Atlantic, Go Sirius and Pacific Valour

Everybody knew the H6 well result was due approx 10 days after rig moved . Also oil moved towards and above 80p . With 70+% of shares locked up by institutional investors it doesn’t take a lot of buying to move the share price .
Insider Trading would be minimal

How about investing in a company with:
Record revenue
Record production
Record FCF
Record levels of cash
Record low Opex per barrel
Record 2P reserves
Record 2C reserves
No Debt

They get on average a $2 premium to Brent for every barrel and increasing.

Pays a dividend (which should increase 10% a year)

If Maari acquisition completes they will get a cheque for $60-80m , 4kbopd plus 10m 2P reserves.

They are also in the market for a transformational acquisition.

For end 2021 they should reach 20kbopd which @ $73 oil would give them $45m a month revenue ($540m a year)

NB share price not at a record level !!

Fair value should be £1.20 end of year and £1.50 mid next year.

I hold -

30 not 3

The workovers are scheduled for 3 and 21 days respectively . Which takes us to early November https://www.offshore-energy.biz/jadestone-hands-in-revised-montara-drilling-plan/

The recent webcast Q&A gives clarity to board intentions over Maari. The timetable for legislation is laid out for the next 3 months at least with submissions to select committee - a select committee report due 21 November is the next big date.
Worst case there will be delays due to industry peers dragging feet.
Best case is it goes to Royal assent by Xmas .

After that approval for Maari operator change should take weeks rather than months.

The prize has become an elephant in the room (though hugely discounted in SP), with circa $60-80m cheque due to JSE by Xmas (effectively 4m barrels of production from Jan 19 to Dec 21)

In the meantime Valaris 107 has moved to skua field to begin workovers.
H6 is complete and probably on production so expect an RNS next week. It depends whether they wait a week or two for flush production to settle.

Ian

The webcast