Member Info for Croasdalelfc

I've set out my thoughts on production and revenue for 2021 post todays update:
9934 bopd core H1 182 days $121.1m
9000 bopd core H2 182 days $116.3m
3000 bopd H6 Barrels 90 days $20.3m
2000 bopd Skua workovers 60 days $9.0m
5400 bopd PM Oil 152 days $61.6m
600 boepd PM gas 152 days $2.7m

Total Barrels = 4.73M (12.9kbopd) $331.0m

Ive added a $2 premium to all barrels.
H1 based on $65 Brent average
H2 based on $69 Brent average

The above is 3.8m Montara and Stag barrels which is at upper end of guidance
The exact amount depends on liftings but they had the scope to delay liftings until a better oil price was reached.

NB record revenue for JSE was in 2019 at 4.5m barrels and ~$337m

They will exit 2021 with :
Record Operating Cash flow ~ $52 a barrel at $70 oil
Record Cash ~ $80/100m
Record Production ~ 20kbopd

The pipeline is run by two companies COTCO and TCHAD or TCOTCOwith stakeholders such as Petronas and Exxon.

The latest tariff at the Cameroon end is $1.32 a barrel . The tariff was raised in 2018 from $1.30. The next review is 2023.

I can’t find any info on the Chad end run by TCHAD - Chad Oil Transportation Company.

The pipeline is mainly on Cameroon territory so would expect lower tariffs at Chad end.

Yearly barrels moved is approx 48/49m barrels. So would expect revenue to SAVE from the pipeline to be North of $30m.

Hibiscus and Ithaca have agreed to work together to include Yeoman field in Marigold/Sunflower/Crown development. https://www.offshore-mag.com/regional-reports/north-sea-europe/article/14203927/ithaca-energy-anasuria-hibiscus-uk-agree-to-joint-north-sea-marigoldyeoman-project

This is a step forward towards FID of Marigold and the final $2.85m payment to UOG for Crown.
NB Maria discovery (100% UOG) could easily be added to the project - either as farm in or sale- after a CPR . Zeta is a prospect though much larger than Maria and potentially could also be sold or farmed down.
Maria would be worth more after FID and CPR say $4 a barrel in the ground @ 6m barrels

I don't post very often on LSE but thought I would share:

H2 2020 EBITDA margin was 36% ....H1 2021 probably over 45% we shall see in late May results.
My projection for 2021 as a whole is over 45% provided PGM prices dont fall off a cliff.

A modest rerate to industry norms sees the share price between £3 and £5 ..Have a nice day :)
https://twitter.com/croasdale01/status/1387332062416343041?s=20

https://quoteddata.com/2019/06/miton-uk-microcap-redemption-delayed-midaugust/

RBD, BLOE, JSE, PTAL, RRE those are the ones I'm in: Others UJO, ECO, VGAS,

3D Seismic
The extra 40km Square is all around the edge of the current license Block. Blocks of interest are the Schlumberger Block to the North West and the immediate Southern Block – I think it is Block 13 .In addition to seismic, they will use VSP – Vertical Siesmic Profile from the Well bore data. The idea is to get a real handle on Proved, Probable and Contingent Reserve, a new CPR and I guess then an RBL comes into play – that’s my assumption
Schlumberger
he is talking to them all the time – good relationship – when I asked why it was taking so long for their gas result he shrugged and said ‘that’s Schlumberger for you’ – I got the feeling he is inl talks with them re cooperation/partnership. Remember Schlumberger are right in the Georgian ‘fairway’.

The Next Two Drils:

Spud Well 38 – I asked ’how soon was Summer’ he laughed and said very soon – drill pipe on its way – he wouldn’t say anymore – as its price sensitive.

Well 38 and Well 30 expected to take 60 days each – back to back drills. Well 38 is an analogue of Well 16aZ and will be drilled exactly the same – though the sidetrack will be 700m – yes 700m !! so expect even better result and its expected to take a few days less. Well 30 is on the edge of permit and though the in the P10 area on the CPR and didn’t produce oil when it was drilled , he feels its no more risk than 16az or 38 and will prove up the full field area. Well 30 - the gas will be fully tested – gas flowrates etc – and then horizontal sidetrack and brought online as an oil producer. They should be drilled and completed by end of year and they are targeting 2500-3000 bopd. Well 30 has narrower casing 5 inch and they would prefer 71/2 inch I think that is what he said.

Well 16aZ – production announcement imminent – when I mentioned that the RNS dated 1st July said 7 days-- he was shocked that a week had gone by and said yes – imminent – so I think this week.
Offtake from storage facility to GoG facility will be by tanker 7 days a week, 3 or 4 in rotation backwards and forwards. They have a gas flare permit for 60 days and are still negotiating gas offtake as they have had more than one offer -the second offer at a better price than Bago – watch this space. Remember the Bago agreement was a MOU.

This is a mixture of notes taken during presentation and a 15 minute conversation afterwards with Paul Haywood.

From a question from audience: How do you know follow on wells will perform the same as 16aZ? Maybe it was the exception?
Answer: we always anticipated it to be 1000-1500 bopd – that was the thinking although publicly we were conservative in line will the CPR P50 case
Question what about decline rates on these Wells?:
Answer: we anticipate producing at 800-1000 for a year or even 18 months before any decline. Decline estimated at 1.5% a month.

I’m at the meeting and will write something up for the morning - all good , in fact great , had a nice chat with Paul

Thanks - I’ve registered

Is anyone going and does anyone have a link so I can register?

Thanks

ridiculously conservative - no accounting for gas and just 1250 bopd - yet target is 35p - lots of upside !!

http://www.blockenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/block_energy_building_blocks_1_jul_19.pdf

Capital Reduction plan, share buybacks and dividends

They would have holding in Terra Energy which is private (not ADX)

Adx announced an SPA to purchase producing assets in Austria - 350 boepd - they need cash from a UK Special Purpose vehicle (like Danube) this is called Terra Energy.
Terra Energy board is the same as Danube except for Stephen Williams.

Who do you think they will ask for some of the cash??

https://twitter.com/croasdale01/status/1145980998670327809

http://adx-energy.com/documents/austrian-oil-gas-production-asset-acquistion.pdf

http://adx-energy.com/documents/investor-presentation-austrian-production-appraisal-assets.pdf

£1.1m investment will get you £900k return a year (post tax cash flow) - nice maths!! - for about 10 years with 20% decline over the ten years

It looks like the EIA Report on Block XIF was approved on 20th June - this has probably delayed Well 38 more than anything.

https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1zhc1uP5WOFvGSn4NMmUyT-7AO8bNtiTY?fbclid=IwAR1cFiTh28zX56Ef4vHS9Ffc7Osu-QNIljtrlp-94-zVrHqFsusa2GZvb5U

Also on Facebook page of State Oil and Gas Georgia

All production, transport and royalty costs