RE: Vox on Orior24 Oct 2025 12:56
Re-rating in KEFI shares finally underway
Over the past few weeks, KEFI shares have risen sharply from very low levels. This initial re-rating has
been driven by a combination of the market’s anticipation that financing for Tulu Kapi will be finalised
imminently, and higher gold prices. Despite this move in the shares, KEFI remains significantly
undervalued compared to peers. Assuming the market ascribes no value to the 15% stake in GMCO,
KEFI is being valued at an estimated EV/oz planned production of US$1,100. This is based on average
annual production of 180,433 oz gold from Tulu Kapi in the first three years of the project, KEFI’s
expected 85% stake, and current shares outstanding and exchange rates. This represents a discount
of 76% to peers.
KEFI shares seem unjustifiably cheap, especially given Tulu Kapi is on the verge of being launched.
Finalising the financing package seems likely to further propel the shares
Start of construction valuation of 3.3 p/share
Assuming Tulu Kapi is fully financed (expected imminently) the market might be expected to value
KEFI more in line with peers at around US$4,500/oz planned annual production. KEFI announced, 30
September 2025, that the remaining equity capital of approx. US$60m is currently being finalised. KEFI
said it has received conditional proposals that exceed this amount. Herein, the assumptions are that
US$20m is raised through the non-dilutive Ethiopian preference shares and gold-related products;
that the remaining US$40m is raised at a valuation of US$250m for Tulu Kapi; and that the full Share
Option Plan (10%) is issued post-financing. On this basis there would be 12.6bn shares outstanding.
Based on production of 180,433 oz pa in the first 3 years of the project (KEFI’s Owner’s Business
Plan), assuming KEFI owns 85%, accounting for KEFI’s share of the US$240m funding debt, and
valuing the attributable resources in Saudi Arabia at US$120/oz, (a 25% discount to peers), KEFI
could attract a valuation of 3.3 p/share.