Member Info for craiga24

I dont actually mind your posts like many here do Touk but it was ALWAYS my understanding that 6000 data would be Q2 (thats until June) and first readout for 6103 would likely be August at the earliest. Those are the assumptions I have been working from so not at all surpirsed there was nothing today there never was a plan to be any data released today so not sure why both sides of the board are all "Uppity" today. Yeah the RNS was nice and it strengthens the case and shows the attractivness of the platform but was nver gone move the SP

Its a science day where they get to use big words that I have to google and still, have no idea wtf they are talking about.

Just my view anyway

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHytjEj7B9g

Ironic given Avactas link up with tempus haha

i read the post, didnt take much from it personally but also did not see anything outlandishly wrong. it seemed broadly accurate overall to me even if it was ai output without the prompt for reference.

seems more people are ****ed he used ai than the content which seems like i say broadly right at this point in time. if you think its wrong maybe counter point where you think it is incorrect as its suppose to be a discussion board isnt it?

Ditto BV. Without even looking on twitter I can name at least 3 people speculating I bet.... same crowd, same nonesense

Yeah a raise seems likely and expected tbh. Just get it out the way so traders can make thier few quid, avacta can be in a more stable position financially hopefully ready for what I hope is finally the turning (making me some money) point in the summer

People still follow what McNulty says? Very little if any of his predictions the last5/6 years have been accurate but as they say a broken clock and all that... sure he will guess something right eventually

Popped your "Case Study" in for $hits and giggles:

I’d treat that piece as a well-written bull case / ramp, not as anything like a neutral valuation.

It has some good ideas (especially around the “pathfinder” effect), but it massively stretches the probabilities and the valuation numbers with some wild valuations.

I’d treat that document as:

A polished bullish case study that’s useful to understand the shape of the upside if everything goes right,

but with probabilities and numbers pushed way beyond what the real-world stats and deal comps support.

Its all about the prompt, AI has a history of confirmation Bias. Its a great tool but its results are only as good/bad as the prompt for example my prompt was for it to look bullish but realistic:

In “bullish but not totally fantasy” land, a 2026 takeout around £1–2bn enterprise value is about as far as I’d stretch it this year – which, on today’s share count, translates very roughly to something like:

£1bn → ~£2.30/share

£1.5bn → ~£3.40/share

£2bn → ~£4.60/share

vs today’s market cap of ~£270m at ~60p.

The £3–4bn+ (£6.8–£9+/share) stuff people talk about is more “later, with much more data / competition for the asset” than “this year”.

Let me explain how I get there in your bull case:

Good AVA6000 breast/TNBC readout + SGC survival still strong

Early AVA6103 human data look in line with / better than the mouse data

Big pharma with exatecan / ADC interests feels “we need this platform”

1. Where Avacta actually is on the food chain

Right now Avacta is:

AVA6000 – Phase 1b:

90% disease control in SGC, encouraging PFS, cardio safety strong, dose limit relaxed, path to dose selection for efficacy studies.

TNBC & other cohorts reading out in H1 2026.

AVA6103 – just cleared IND, Phase 1 starting Q1 2026:

Very nice preclinical pharmacology,

AI analysis vs Enhertu suggesting quicker, higher, more selective tumour delivery in mouse models.

No late-stage trials, no approvals, no human 6103 data yet.

Compare that to:

Seagen, which Pfizer bought for $43bn: fully commercial ADC company with multiple marketed drugs and late-stage pipeline.

Enhertu deal (AZ/Daiichi):

AstraZeneca paid $1.35bn upfront, plus up to $5.55bn in milestones (total up to $6.9bn) for co-dev & commercial rights to a late-stage exatecan ADC.

Other hot oncology buys: Gilead buying Arcellx for up to $7.8bn for a late-stage CAR-T platform.

Those deals are for much later-stage, de-risked assets.

Avacta today is more like:

“Platform with strong early human PoC in one asset (AVA6000) and very promising preclinical + just-starting Phase 1 in a second (AVA6103).”

So any 2026 takeout is early / opportunistic, not “we’re buying a mini-Seagen”.

2. What would have to happen to get a serious bid this year?

In your bullish scenario, this year we’d need something like:

SGC & TNBC look undeniably good

SGC PFS/OS continues to beat historical controls with more follow-up.

TNBC (and maybe breast) data show real, reproducible responses, not just noise.

AVA6103 human data don’t break the magic

Phase 1 runs clean:

Safety within expectations, no unexpected dose-limiting toxicity pattern.

PK in humans broadly matches the mouse/AI story (strong tumour exposure, limited plasma).

Maybe even early tumour shrinkage in at least one of the four indications (pancreatic/gastric/SCLC/cervical).

Big pharma really cares about owning this mechanism. Particularly those with exatecan/ADC exposure:

AstraZeneca / Daiichi Sankyo – co-owners of Enhert

2 + 2 together always seems to come to 5 and and a half for avacta.

This is just another conference, just like all the other conferences people were touting a deal would come from like ESMO, JPM, ASCR , Comic con

It is good in as far as it is another place that avacta can tell their story be in the right rooms with the right people and have the right conversations, It at least shows management are not sat doing wordsearches and playing tetris. This deal talk on the run up to EVERY conference is getting boring its like posts are copied and pasted every conference. There will be no deal before or immediately after this conference of that I am 95% sure. A few more months to wait yet I feel

I am really sorry Ice I just realised I am arguing with an idiot. Read what I actually wrote I said "30 patient SGC dataset" which is what most people have been refering to when talking about all these deals that are apparently gettting signed.... I never mentioned the whole program. Context wasnt it?

The RNS literally says "The trial enrolled both a Phase 1a cohort (n=11) and Phase 1b cohort to date (n=19 evaluable for efficacy) for a total of 30 patients with SGC."

But thats ok you crack on with the AI banter and love of an emoji when something is posted that does not tally with your clearly overly optimistic, nothing can go wrong, i am always right view. I will continue to live in reality.

I will leave you to crack on with your 75% AI written thesis or whatever it is, make sure you set it to deep research 😜

Ok that makes sense. I read job done as Avacta, not your resolution my bad.

On the "30 patient SGC dataset" I guess the RNS was wrong then?

"The trial enrolled both a Phase 1a cohort (n=11) and Phase 1b cohort to date (n=19 evaluable for efficacy) for a total of 30 patients with SGC.

Of the 30 patients with SGC treated at the dose of 250 mg/m2 and above and evaluable for efficacy, nine experienced clinically meaningful disease shrinkage, including two confirmed partial responses (PR, >30% tumor shrinkage) and seven minor responses (MR, >10% and

Wow Ice, that post feels a few leaps ahead of reality.

I agree JPM plus the last two RNSs are positive and AVA6103 looks exciting, but “job done” feels a bit premature.

AVA6000 isnt magically derisked to zero on a 30 patient SGC dataset and going to JPM doesnt guarantee a licensing deal, lots of small cap comps go just to reintroduce themselves, pitch, and get in front of some new names. It just means they are in the right rooms.

There plenty to be optimistic about of course but there is still a long and risky road between here and a fully fledged platform company with multiple partnered assets.

Whatever happened to being optimistic and cautious - does every view now have to be either “ramper” or “deramper”?

"They are on here 24/7

No normal person would do that !!!"

As they average 3 posts a day or 100 posts per month.......

I imagine our definitions of fly are very different. We were 79p/80p not long ago you expecting it to 'fly' past that ...... Yes I can see this limping back into the low/mid 60s.Is that your definition of fly?

Wish I had listened to the 'traders' I could have sold at 80p and bought back at 57p. What a moronic comment but not your first

That was the most telling thing for me, the presentation had zero enthusiasm and felt very flat. I am enthusiatic and hopeful of Avactas future (although also realistic) but AS and now CC are slowly chipping away at me now. Said for years science wise amazing business side they still appear to be lacking (IMO)

66p not a merry christmas ;-(

This kind of nonsense annoys me. It is good news for SGC sufferers and patients, of that there is no doubt, but 99% of the people on this board bought this share to MAKE MONEY.

You can lie, dodge, and pretend you are helping to cure/treat cancer (as some of you like to do), but you are not. As investors in an AIM company, we are here to leech off the hard work of others hoping to make a few quid.

If a family member or friend unfortunately got SGC and Avacta’s treatment helped them, they would not be saying 'Massive thanks to cashless for investing money in Avacta'. Pretending you are here for anything other than to make money is just stupid. This type of post is BS and toxic at its finest—using the suffering of patients (SGC/cancer sufferers) as a weapon to silence investment criticism.

Guess the market is wrong then and it's a stunning RNS.....