Member Info for Couerdelion

And barely noticed but we have now reached the pre-div price from June last year. That's a 15% return in less than 7 months!!

Unfortunately "the market" is a fickle beast and made up of a broad mix of investors who will happily collect profits when they can. Here there are a couple of cliff-edges: the results of the government report into the future of NS O&G, and the FIP. Until then we are looking at a bet on the results of both.

I am more on the optimists side of the argument but that won't stop me taking some profits here if the price is right.

Why is the link directing me to an article from early December?

I feel everyone here is a little sour about the price move today but I think you're worrying about the wrong metric. Gilt yields rise so LGEN price falls - no surprise there. But nothing has really changed in the fundamentals of the business: it may even have improved if defined benefit pensions and annuity business see gains.

As a "buyer" of income here, I am perhaps more relaxed than LTHs since this little dip allows me to get in at a good price. But LTHs can still be relaxed that the income flow will continue as before so they are only looking at a paper loss.

Used the drop to top up a little more although I could have saved a bit by waiting. As a long term hold, I'm fairly relaxed even if I am a tad overweight just now. When the price moves up, I'll once again only recover the invested cash and level the profits in shares.

Added a little bit of LGEN myself just now. Overweight in PHNX anyway but they didn't seem to get hit quite so badly.

One more tweet from Donald and we might reach my first price target in little over a week. I may even have to reconsider selling so low.

I'm fairly relaxed about the likely impact of the tax increases on MKS. I think they can protect their margins either through cost savings or price increases and they are less exposed than many other retailers. But I see my holding here as long term investment and less concerned that the SP is currently trapped in the 360-400p range. The PE ratio is not overly demanding and positive results will help nudge the SP beyond the 400p barrier when it is ready to move higher.

If it ends the year over 440p, I'll be happy enough. I think it very unlikely that the SP will grow as much as it did in 2024.

It looks like nearly 2% of the share capital was traded yesterday which could be 8% of the free float - I don't recall if the TEK holdings are tied for some period. If it is 8%, that would explain the price rise and we now have a fair number of investors who I doubt would want to be selling south of 40p+.

Let's just say I'm optimistic right now.

Today the share was up on the day. We can add your predictions to the list of counterfactuals now ;-)

If you're moving cash into UK shares, I'd suggest doing this in smaller tranches although, in the case of LGEN you are probably buying the yield so may not be quite as concerned about price points if the yield is good enough.

I too am buying at the moment but will bide my time waiting for a better entry point which, to be quite frank, is the only price I care about here.

Usually it is the prosecution that has to present the evidence.

In the case of a credit markets, if debt prices fall, that's simply a message that lenders are demanding a higher price to hold the debt. In the case of gilts that's higher interest to compensate foreign investors for the currency risk. The rise in interest rates during the mini-budget was exacerbated by geared gilt investments (repos) using so-called LDI funds which forced pension funds to post liquidity to support their positions which in turn forced them to sell other assets pushing prices down further. The market settled a little when the BoE started buying gilts.

No doubt there will have been smart investors who were ahead of the curve who shorted gilts earlier and made a fortune but they would not have been controlling the market, merely reading it better than others.

Imaginary villains like hedge funds are easy targets because they come in all shapes and sizes. Here they'd be shorting the stock but they'd need wider selling from institutions to make any money here and there don't appear to be any shorts. They had little to do with the mini-budget crash that was all about leveraged owners of gilts - pension schemes invested in LDI funds - having to sell gilts when buyers took fright.

Much more likely is that we have a lack of optimism that is triggering a bout of profit-taking. The positive news is that the buyback program is reducing the share count even more so that, by the time the results are in, EPS will be even higher than it would have been.

ST has written another piece on LDG.

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/content/33c081c0-f36d-5603-aabe-488cd91d21ac

Some of the holdings seem to have changed from my last valuation and I was substantially out on my cash estimate. But it's not a million miles away from my post-tender NAV and unsurprisingly get's a buy recommendation.

Regarding my timing, my most recent buys here were 1235p (twice), 1189p, and 1145p which leaves me overweight and underwater. I will be holding onto the first three tranches until at least 1300p.

Is there a link?

Probably needs to get to 320-325p for me to be comfortable that we've broken the back of the resistance level. Fingers crossed.

Anyone know what has driven all this new demand for the shares? Is there some update coming or perhaps just a few buyers coming back after the Christmas break?

All I was suggesting was that SOME value would have been reflected at the time the options were granted (for all options granted) but I don't think they are revalued annually. So yes, there will be a dilution when issued which will be offset to some extent by the unwinding of the original valuation.

Odd that the share price didn't react to the latest RNS. When they issued a similar announcement in May, it jumped instantly and finished the day up 4%.

I guess we may just have to wait for the results and the biannual drift upwards as the dividend date approaches.