Member Info for Couerdelion

Another 0.1-0.2p tomorrow and my prediction is now looking ridiculously prudent - maybe 4.6-5.0p is a realistic range. Buyers are in control here and I don't see why they can't sweep up the profit takers before moving the SP to the next step. Plenty of opportunities along the way to slice off a layer or two of profits.

As regards Archer's article, it looked a little too bullish for my money and in JLP-world that just breeds disappointment. But they could be producing half of the copper he's talking about and JLP would still be cheap at 8-10p.

I'm not sure how useful chart analysis will be as a predictive tool tomorrow. We've got half the NAV due to float tomorrow which could easily see a sharp spike in the SP.

All the interesting commentary today it seems is coming from the share trades screen.

This will be 4.5p before the week is out.

Pedro, if you were to think things through you might be asking yourself why there is a discount. If you can buy SALT or GDNT through TEK at half the price then why isn't everyone doing it. Or put another way, I can get GDNT here at half the price and SALT and the rest are all free!!! So why is that discount there? Even strategic players that might wish to gain control of one or other company might considered buying out TEK for its holdings and then disposing of the other investments. There are plenty of reasons why markets would spot this anomaly and move to correct it.

Putting aside the imperfections of markets, there's a simpler explanation following the principles of Occam's Razor and it is all to do with agency risk. Put simply the holdings of TEK may be worth more to the company than the SP implies, but they are not worth more to the shareholders because of intermediate parties who could extract there profits before anything comes to shareholders. Whatever we might argue about a new history, there can be no denying that, to date, no money has ever been paid to TEK shareholders while there has been plenty of dilution to pay for running costs.

Perhaps not the time, I will grant you as next week we will witness the IPO. But the GDNT v TEK experiment is certainly one to watch.

Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/content/60097b36-b5bf-4368-bc6e-25bfe9e1615d?xnpe_tifc=x.4shkY8x.n8xkodxFzlxypsafeWaeiWhFWAVus.RFbdxIHp4lB9afeWaG8.adJSxIYphfQubdQNOIxlhuYdbnTT&utm_source=exponea&utm_campaign=Fri%20-%20IC%20-%20Investment%20Daily%20-%20Newsletter%20-%2016.01.26&utm_medium=email

Featured in their "Ideas of the Week".

As posted in the RNS section here and at GNIP.

I understood the RNS to mean an INCREASE of 330% from $123k to $530k and similarly an increase in the margin to 30%.

After comparing RNS to my notes, I'm rather underwhelmed with these numbers if we are still sub $1m revenue. We're also lacking much detail in the way of admin costs or cash figures. I'm hoping we might get a better clue soon how long this will take to be cash positive or generating a profit.

But do you also get to recover SA withholding taxes in an ISA?

Is that an in-person event or is there a video link? It says it is almost full but I just noticed another of my companies are presenting there.

Out of interest, has anyone here looked at what the RNS means in terms of numbers?

Is anyone going to the Proactive seminar? Rather too short notice for me.

Top work Mikie. Presumably these breakeven figures are at an operating level so there are still group costs to cover.

If we were to stretch Roan to cover the 350tpm breakeven level (and maybe the increased copper price does that work for us) then anything from the Molefe/Sable process is pure profit. Likewise LWP profits are incremental to the valuation of the business.

I haven't quite figured out the Galileo deal but the 400Ha vs 25000Ha difference looks to me to be critical and I can't understand why this wasn't clearer when that deal was announced. It's reminiscent of when they sold the SA business and forgot to tell us that the buyers took on $60m of debt.

Unless I've misunderstood some of the posts here, there seems to be some sort of belief that the licenses might it some way lapse by August 2026 in the absence of an FDP. This is part of the RNS which I think most people would concede addresses this point.

"an application to extend the Second Term duration of both licences will be made to the North Sea Transition Authority ("NSTA") during the current year. "

No doubt you can spin that into another twist that sits neatly into whatever story you'd like to spin but I'll based my decisions on the information provided by management.

It's a common investment strategy known as loss aversion.

Market seems to be liking the update.

Which bit are you concerned about? The reference I saw to long term investment was where they mentioned the advantages of investing now with a 78% tax offset while generating the income subject to the lower tax rate.

I don't think we know the price of the bonds, only the principal amount and coupon rate, so we can't say for certain how much it costs.

Not that this would not have been anticipated by the markets, the maturing bonds had to be repaid using something and it's better this way that via some form of revolving credit facility.

Any money made on the individual stocks has to date only been made through trading. There's an argument to be made for longer term returns but that's also a waiting game as we are still to see any of the companies generating a profit, let alone a dividend.

As to the deep discount, the argument that this will be more transparent once GDNT is publicly traded is just wishful thinking. At the end of the day, the shares are only worth the discounted value of cashflows returned to shareholders and if those are distant and uncertain, the market discounts them heavily regardless of the value of the underlying holdings.

There's certainly more transparency by investing directly in the investee companies although this too is not free of the governance risk as TEK is the majority shareholder.

Either way, the next few days are ones every shareholder should be watching closely.

Too risky for me. I'll take a slice of profits at various points but this share makes sudden upwards movements and I want to have sufficient skin in the game when that happens.

Agreed. The key take from the 800k trade is probably not that someone is selling but that the market had little trouble in digesting this at prices we didn't even see till yesterday.

There's still plenty of legs in this even before we get to the end of this month.