Member Info for Corryvreckan1

Similar picture to last month - EU poor / UK good, but crucially the supply chains look robust I think.

Our fickle SP so far showing no real signs of response either way and I think the market is perhaps just hesitant ahead of the ECB.

This morning sees the release of the latest construction PMI reports, like the one’s I mentioned before that may have triggered some of the volatility last month.

The EU one is released at 9.30 CEST (8.30am BST equivalent), the UK one is 9.30am BST

I think they should appear as pdf links on this page later: https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public

Then eyes on the ECB for an expected rate cut at 1.15pm BST, the press conference afterwards likely more important.

Nope, not happening, as expected:

https://www.lseg.com/en/media-centre/press-releases/ftse-russell/2024/ftse-uk-index-series-june-review

So if all goes to schedule then it could be Christmas week for the 250.

Alas poor 100, we knew you...

Official announcement:

https://www.lseg.com/en/media-centre/press-releases/ftse-russell/2024/ftse-uk-index-series-june-review

I make it being about 15 places / 15% below keeping it's place in the end. Rebalance is not effective until 24 June though, still in the 100 until then.

Maybe not all doom, I saw some stats last year (don't have to hand) that indicated that companies being demoted often out performed those moving up in the few weeks/months after the event. Lot’s of day to day volatility still to come I think and we have still not had a follow through day, either up or down, since last Tuesday.

* may be short. Sorry, 'are short' is too strong a phrase when they're not disclosed.

Looks like an algo driven walk down to me. And I think more than just JP are short.

Go and make another coffee and then re-read my post just two below yours.

On the maths only I think we would have just made it.

If, by some miracle, FTSE Russell have chosen to ignore the domicile issue (and in doing so find a way to breach their own regulations) then it will be announced in the official press release after market close tonight.

I'm not hopeful because we were not included in the indicative list last week when the maths might have supported it then as well :/

"Does Newcastle United Football Club have some visibility in Europe?"

Not in season 24/25 they don't, missed out on European competition when Manchester United won the FA Cup.

Oxford Nano IR is possibly run by Teneo - I think I’ll stick with my own analysis.

Very good Fforest, extra cookie for you :op

Looks firmly in a Stage 2 uptrend to me, so the old adage of letting your winners run does perhaps seem apt (without offering advice). Some also call it 'climbing the wall of worry' so DYOR of course and know where your exit point(s) might be.

NURSE!!! Bring the syringe. No, the other one, the bigger one.

Kitty, step away from the catnip ;o)

Looks like b@xter's cup and handle theory is maybe holding water (or tea if you prefer, we're an inclusive bunch here). Broken through the top of the short-term uptrend and into the stronger currents of the main channel.

I've being trying to guess the airline connection to OCDO but I'm not getting it.

What's your source for JP Morgan closing, as I'm not convinced they have?

Stupmy - read further down (starts top of page 2) as we were discussing the Millennium short exit yesterday. Looks like they got out in the high UT on Friday.

I don't have access to the full report but this is the summary:

https://brc.org.uk/insight/content/retail-sales/retail-sales-monitor/reports/202405_uk_rsm/

A little bit more detail on the % splits here:

https://www.ii.co.uk/news/top-news-uk-retail-sales-rise-in-may-thanks-to-food-and-online-sales-al1717480785912712800

I don't have access to the full report but this is the summary, scroll down for the food & drink comments:

https://brc.org.uk/insight/content/retail-sales/retail-sales-monitor/reports/202405_uk_rsm/

A little bit more detail on the % splits here:

https://www.ii.co.uk/news/top-news-uk-retail-sales-rise-in-may-thanks-to-food-and-online-sales-al1717480785912712800

I like that PL analogy DonBroco, summarises well how the effect on one company is often dependent on other results as well. Looks like OCDO are 0-2 down at half-time :/

In terms of the number of changes likely to happen and the number of possible permutations, it's turned out to be one of the more dynamic rebalances in recent times.

@Boyobach - agree with your first point about increasing again after the event, I noted the same in my first draft but it didn't make the final edit. By the same token there could be any number of other short positions that never crossed above 0.5% to begin with and we would never know. I believe that the official market disclosure level is 0.1% but I think you need a subscription to Euroclear or something like that to get access to that level of detail. Institutional advantage yet again.

I think it's maybe at the point where they cross under the 0.5% reporting threshold that shorttracker appear to show the level they have initially dropped to at that time.

If it's just to, say, 0.49% initially then they would note that, and they could then still drop further anywhere to zero and we would never know. By stating Millennium went to zero at point of crossing under I think indicates it's a full out.

This link to AB Dynamics page is a good example as it lists several short companies dropping under to different levels:

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B9GQVG73/

LO go from 0.53% to 0.33% straight away, JPM to 0.49%, Jupiter to 0.48%, and Millennium going to 0.00% there as well.

Unless my logic is out on that thinking in which case it's definitely past bed time and I shall wait to be scolded in the morning :/

I make that 1.4% to be c.11.5m shares, which would be around a third of Friday's UT total volume if that's where they did it all. Looks like a few different organisations taking advantage of whatever created the sell side of that UT, be that shorts, FTSE transfers, or anything else we can't fathom.

Interesting strategy though, and very opportunistic by Millennium. It didn't spike because it was done in the auction - some folks wanting to sell down their holdings and Millennium and others wanted to buy - so it's a net nil sum at whatever price they agree clears the most volume. So that takes 1.4% out of the potential for a short squeeze having to be done on-market during the day, which in turn helps the other shorters as it keeps a lid on the volatility. "Organised shorting" indeed!

Today mostly looked like a continuation of recent intraday activity to me, with no hangover from Friday’s obscure market behaviour. Last chance at holding FTSE100 may now also be gone - close tomorrow is all that matters there now.