Member Info for copperman

Good stuff Lowrisktrader. When the good news comes and the share price re-rate kicks off, the best thing everyone can do on the LSE board is go on a ‘sellers strike’ until the share price is driven up to a sensible price. We want the price to be driven up on minimum liquidity.

.... are coming next week. GLA

Very obvious why the share price has been declining over the last couple of weeks. We've had this large seller to get rid of. The market makers should now be in a position to move the share price back to sensible levels again and no doubt have loaded up on a few shares!

It looks like they are clearing this large sell order today at 3.8p. Typically sellers/buyers get this done in one trading day.

A big block trade of 3.6m shares this morning. There has probably been a large seller in the market over the last few days and this block trade I expect has cleared them out. With no stock overhang the shares should trade higher.

I think a share price of 10p on the back of good drilling results over the next 2-4 weeks is very achievable. 20p+ for M&A takeout price. I'm not selling below 10p. GLA

The other point worth mentioning is that First Quantum bought out Kalumbila BEFORE they had defined a JORC resource. With sufficient drilling results strategic investors are happy to buy a company WITHOUT needing a resource announced as they are smart enough to work out what is there based on early drill results. We could be taken out in November / December. In terms of contained Cu valuation ie. US$300/tonne, I think you are in the right ballpark for M&A

The best measure of the potential value of Zamsort is the First Quantum / Kalumbila deal were the property was sold for US$260m. Given we have double the grade in Cu eq, and assuming a similar sized deposit or even a half size deposit, we should achieve a similar price. We are all in agreement that the share price of ARCM does not yet reflect this realistic prospect... I wouldn't want to be short this stock - a recipe to lose a lot of money very quickly given a new discovery and M&A

I used to be an investment banker a long time ago. Had a look at the July 11 presentation on the ARCM website and it clearly says that the company had entered into an exclusivity arrangement with a potential buyer for Sturec. Generally speaking companies give exclusivity periods of 3 months, so by my maths October 11 (or perhaps a bit sooner) is when they will need to consummate a deal. Of course, it could be a longer exclusivity period. We might get hit with 2 pieces of good news at the same time ie. drilling results and Sturec sale. Wouldn't that be nice?

Good buy Westie. Looks like the market makers are loading up in advance of news which is no surprise!

Fulmar, what news are you expecting before drill results? Agreement to sell Sturec?

Barrick Gold merging with Randgold proves that there is still serious appetite to invest in Africa. A good read across for ARCM. The Chinese continue to put money into Africa and I expect they ultimately will buy or JV with ARCM.

Now we are all on the same page ie the lab is painfully slow, moving on to the important question of what can we expect to see when the lab finally sends the results back... I think we will see 3 things - higher Cu and Co grades than the last set of results which were drilled at the thin edge of the deposit (not the best place to start!), a good chance of a surprise to the upside on the cobalt grades (rock chip samples of 3-5% Co have been reported in the past), and better grades near surface with less exciting (but still economic) grades deeper which is often the case. Copperman’s best educated guest.

Trust in Copperman. I am exactly right. Call NvS and ask him yourself...

I think a move up to 7p on the day of announcement as the shorts close out their positions when they realise there is nothing wrong (apart from very slow lab) and no fundraising on the way anytime soon, then 10p as we discover more copper further North and the strike length increases. Every time ARCM still a hole and find copper, Zamsort increases in value.

I’m pretty sure the delay in drill results is down to the lab being very slow. A few other mining companies have had similar problems recently, There is a backlog. Annoying, but the results will come eventually.

I did a bit of reading on Zambia sovereign risk. The Finance Minister on Sept 19 made it clear that the country had not defaulted on any debt and will shortly announce a refinancing plan. Also, the USD750m Eurobond is only due in 2022, so there is plenty of time to sort it out. Frankly I don’t see what all the fuss is about. Hardly Greece. I expect they will sort it out.

I think ARCM is waiting for more drilling results, especially from the North, before announcing to the market. That way they can use a ‘shock and awe’ technique to get the share price up and squeeze out the shorts. Then we will get the share price re-rating we all deserve. Feeling bullish today. GLA. :)

Suggest we all calm down and wait for drilling results. ARCM share price will be driven by exploration success. Zambia will be bailed out by the Chinese who have plenty of cash so I’m not worried.

The market is expecting news and nothing announced today. That’s why the share price is off. I’m sure we will see some news shortly. Labs are very slow to process drill core. It takes time. NvS will probably wait until he has enough drill results to make the press release interesting.