The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Based on the last press release, and assuming ARCM are still to 200m depth, ARCM have completed 46x200m of drilling ie 9,600m of their 11,000m still programme. I’m assuming they will complete the full 11,000m programme sometime this coming week. Perhaps we will see an RNS very soon announcing this with more results, and their new exploration drilling plans / targets?
We have 3m oz of gold and 400kt+ Cu / Co of assets as of today. I am really not worried at all. I once bought into a stock at 2.5p, it traded down to 0.5p, and then 12 months later I sold at 10p. I only regret not topping up at 0.5p!
Jerry, I do not believe NvS is considering a JV on Kabala, but he is considering a JV with a mining company on the other licence areas (non Kabala e.g .Fwiji, Cheyeza, etc) which in my opinion would be a good thing as effectively you get a free carry on exploration at someone else's expense. It would also be third party vindication of the prospectivity of these licences. Share prices always go up on the back of these deals.
All, let's focus on the investment case. Whether the share price is at 3p or 5p frankly doesn't make a huge difference if you believe the share price will be at 10p by end December, and 20p in 2019. All likely scenarios in my opinion. We are in a bad market (see S&P fall yesterday) and with Brexit round the corner everyone is risk off. Suggest we hang tight until markets stabilise and then people will start to invest in mining again. ARCM is cashed up and does not need to fundraise, so I am not worried about this one.
ARahim, I think your estimate is a good ‘upside case’. I’m running a ‘base case’ for now until I see more drilling results to the North. But happy to upgrade my estimates on the back of drilling results over the next week or so.
Assuming ARCM will spend this year £3m or so drilling Kabala, and assuming they come up with a JORC resource of say 750kt Cu eq, valued at USD200/t, they will have created USD150m of value which is a 50x return on investment cost. This will be pretty good in my book for an AIM listed exploration company?
I saw some research today showing that last M&A deals on copper projects were valued at USD400 per tonne of contained copper resource. We are hugely undervalued, even if you only use USD200 per tonne for our current 400kt to 500kt resource that will likely grow.
All. To invest in small cap mining requires balls of steel. It’s often a bumpy road but eventually the economics will win the day, not some irritating seller who desperately needs cash in the short term. It will turn!
There is a seller in the market who has been offloading shares for some time now. Apparently they are almost done. When cleared the share price will bounce back. It’s annoying but the investment case hasn’t changed from my perspective. I’m sure NvS is aware of the share price and will be working hard to correct it. We had demand for £2m worth of shares at 4.5p only recently....