Member Info for contrarian123

Is it me or do I see a slight momentum building up in ITV shares since the 19/07 ? I may be wrong and possibly reading too much into it. Any proper TA's here?

waiting for our Russian friend all day to offer some theory but nothing. Ivanborsky hope I haven't put you off - come out and play please

Indeed I concur that the risk has decreased from an HZM point of view. However JM's dithering and bringing this up to the wire is causing the SP to drop. Down at 8.4p today. News better be coming tomorrow because as I said my belief is if another delay a significant (see I avoid using the the "drop like a log" phrase as it offends the echo chamber) drop will occur

Wasa and others It is so easy to wind you all up as you like to hear the sound of your own voices I presume.

I am totally transparent as at least one of the posters here wasa is.
My post on 17th June was suggesting a strategy which I was pondering. In the end correct I did not sell instead I bought on 29/6 after seeing what I though was an inverted hammer on the preceding Friday and a positive Monday before the 29th. Price was around 6.7p which I bought and resold at the recent highs. Nothing wrong with that although if I had waited a few days in July I would have got in at a better price. And that is one of my points. These companies being in the risky phase still (albeit a bit de-risked with ECA in place) are there for trading. I would not have held the shares since June if I didn't believe the story of HZM.

What is wrong in my view and I have said it many a times is putting all your eggs or at least the best part of your carton into one basket and advertise it to the world so much that naive investors may get incentivised to do the same..

On the contrary djryan I understand completely where the company is at but most investors don't appreciate all the context that yourself and other educated posters here in this echo chamber are aware. You misunderstood me I never said I don't understand where the company is at. Also you think I have missed the boat. As I said I sold a tranche of shares at the recent high. I still maintain a position.

All I am saying is that based on past performance any delay again by management in fulfilling what they keep on promising will cause a 20% drop to 7p. That's when I re-enter with the profits I made from the last sell. Simples

All I am a pessimist by nature so always look at the negatives first so apologies in advance if I spoil the party here. I said drop like a log as I looked at the 2yr chart quickly and saw that when HZM drops it is by an order of 20-25%. See below

15-Feb-21 — 26-Feb-21 - 9.9p —> 7.6p approx 25% drop - Fundraise and placing
13-Jan-21 — 29-Jan-21 - 9.8p —> 7.8p approx 20% drop - unsure of what caused the drop
01-Sep-20 — 04-Sep-20 8.76p —> 7.0p approx. 20% drop - unsure of what caused the drop (profit taking after August 2020 rise?)

So I expect that if there is another delay in the many delays we have had from JM and management, it is reasonable to assume a 20% drop even with the ECA funding in place. Is this enough on its own I wonder? Will HZM commit resources even if the ECA funding is in place for further work?

A 20% drop based on today's closing is just below 7p. That is what I have earmarked as a potential re-entry point, as I have to admit I sold a tranche of shares at the recent high.

This will drop like a log. Market and traders patience has been wearing thin. It is inevitable. Not too many people these days are in for the long haul believing a story. So many things can change in between. We live in a world where the attention span of the average person is so small why would investors be any different.

I was taken aback when the CFO was asked a question about cash flow (cannot remember if it was projections) and he referred the shareholder to the broker. Bad form for me he should know

Everyone is waiting for the useless Marketing executive turned CEO to go. My hopes are with Elliot Mgt. Talk about establishment jobs. She's paid millions on both salary and options and she has destroyed shareholder value

GaryNtrader on twitter (for those that know and follow) and the Naked Trader have all bought into CMC a few days ago. If that aint proof that this company isn't oversold I don't know what is. 350p is for me the next stop to evaluate top chopping

Let's have some more conspiracy theories Ivanborsky it's Friday we need some intrigue

and here is another example of how Scottish gas put in a claim for being supplier of last resort
https://www.energylivenews.com/2020/12/08/ofgem-minded-to-allow-scottishpower-to-claim-10-6m/

By my back of a fagpacket calculations Centrica should easily be able to put in at least a 30M claim for the 350000 customers it will on-board from whatever energy co failed a few days ago. Not to mention the additional revenue from these customers and the opportunity to upsell services to them. Let them fail I say

Here is an example of the process that goes on by OFGEM to determine who should be appointed as a SoLR (supplier of last resort). The example is from January's collapse of Green Network Energy and the appointment of EDF. If you read through the letter, back then only a minority of suppliers waived their right to claim additional costs incurred by on boarding customers of the failed co.. EDF was in the minority. I suspect none of the big boys would be willing to do that now and the government will have to pay for their decades long wrong policies on energy sufficiency in the UK. So many years Centrica and other big companies have been subject to political interference now is the time to reap some long overdue payback from the successive idiots running the country.

Example here: https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/sites/default/files/docs/2021/05/decision_letter_green_network_energy.pdf

Right - but stranger things have happened. But not to take the shine of it yes it is as clear a signal as you're going to get

Lets get to 90p first from memory is what it was just prior to COVID

Bring it on. Time for the small operators to be cleansed from this distorted market by years of regulation and politics. Free market or nationalise the lot. No middle way

They'll stay because there will be virtually nowhere to switch to. Even the ones that survive will be forced by the regulator to some form of stress testing as the government will not want more bailouts to suppliers of last resort which the taxpayer ends up subsidising when they fail. All will be forced to have reasonable tariffs and since they cannot achieve the economies of scale that Centrica and other big suppliers can, they will not bother. The days of carpet bagging are over. Centrica is the main beneficiary. Wake me up at 90p which is my first target from a lowly average of 50p

Porsche again he is going around all big share forums spouting the same nonsense like a broken record

Like I said. Steady rise from now on as opportunist fail. Days of cheap energy are over

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-14/two-u-k-energy-suppliers-go-out-of-business-amid-price-surge?srnd=premium-europe

Can't help than think this is good news for Centrica. Time for all the small outfits to clear the space for the big boys that can introduce proper product bundling instead of just cheap energy to the "carpet baggers"