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Yep- basically without itumbula being a success, they will never be able to raise money again
no thoughts on the weather either which gets worse as the month goes on
why the discount - well she couldnt answer that either
she is so far out of her depth, that its clear she isnt the one making the decisions, i think she will be happy when this is all over, just to go back to being a geologist somewhere else
the lack of buyers here is the concern, even i thought a few would pick this up after the risk of no drill, literally everyone is burnt with this stock
problem for them is even on success, they wont have enough to raise and they would need to raise fast it she just admitted it would take months to get all the equipment on site to revisit tai3
this stock is a madness
punt here- lights out of a spike and then lights out it seems but this is not for LTH as dilution will come big time if they ever find any success
Of o drill been taken away- that was the biggest risk for most as that would have meant 6 months of just burning the cash and then dying
this has given the company hope of survival
inbetween the drill starting and ending (30days) NHE are going to ramp something and that will give this a spike
i suspect HE1 know this is the last dice and will throw everything at trying to get any kind of positive result out of this well! they need it to keep their jobs as at the end of this drill they have 2 months of money left
therefore you have to hazard a guess by hook or by crook they will announce something positive here
Is changing what’s going on from within the company
If people was so bothered they would have voted Cope off the BOD but people didn’t do anything
Nobody can be moaning as it’s clear as day these people are robbing shareholders money.
It’s not really about that anymore as nobody is going to take shareholder action
So instead of wasting time telling us all what we already know, and can’t be justified
It’s as simple as this- if they drill and confirm - price goes up, no issues and a strike- the price multiples
It they drill and confirm- price goes up- issues- price goes down - no strike - it’s over
They don’t drill- price goes down and they are pretty much screwed unless they raise 3-5 m in June at under 0.10 for 4-8 bn shares!
All this noise is a waste of time, the small details no longer matter as it’s pointless
The BOD are awful, they are liars and they are crooks and out their depth
The costs are laughable
HOWEVER, there is no enterprise value, no pre spud run, no hot money, just aload of blown out punters that are waiting in hope and a placing that’s been flipped
Therefore, you have a situation with £8m mcap 8m cash and shares trading at current cash pre drill that any positive news sees this trading above 0.30
No point arguing the toss with each other on here anymore- want to shout at the crooks- shout at the BOD and email and ring them.
This is a trading vehicle- long term holding this will see your account lighted in cash
Trade now - you have 15-20 days to de-risk
Then 10-15 days to wait for results then trade them
Then prob 2 days for a placing on any success lol then trade that
If no success- just don’t trade it again
You have investors wanting to de-risk with profits and placing holders from 5 and 6 p all fighting to exit
this time you have most of a dirty 90% discount placing churned and long term punters completely blown out and having to either hold or open a new trade position
as this is also super oversold and the mcap is 8m not 50m like before, you are more likely to see speculative traders as a potential success isnt built in where arguable alot of free will was built into HE1 t 10p on the tai drill
thats why its different imo and you will get more punt money who dont believe the drill is happening come in should the drill be confirmed
its a lights out stock - will be 300% higher by feb or trading below 0.10 but the mcap doenst have much built into it given it has a rusty rig £1-2m value, £8m cash (going into ground) and some licences dotted around in remote places in the world with big numbers of a resource pretending to be in the dirt
whihc indicates the sellers have dried up
no big trades either way as the market is starved of information from the company
if there is positive update from these morons- this should actually spike it as all the loose money has gone, remaining flippers waiting for profits etc etc traded c2 times shares in issue, so one would suggest the larger flippers have gone
looks like its built a base at this level
new year new HE1 or new year same HE1
They have January to prove which one they are
the flippers are definitely done at this level now
i suspect that the ones left want to actually make some money
therefore this theory can only be tested by buy volume
next week the company has to update the market to maintain their "early drill Jan thesis"
lets see if they throw all holders a lifeline
Off the edge of the cliff
no large trades either way today really, so the small money is just slapping bids, i reckon the price needs to be tested with buy side volume to see if placing churned, on lower volume, looks like it has and now wait for some sort of update
Maybe flushed last bit of sellers here
need consistent buyers to test that theory suppose
all the moaning and arguing on here isnt going to change the outcome here
if you have anyone to shout at, shout at the bod and email them
At all time lows
You either buy the bottom with a view of a 0.3 sell as HE1 is in a news window or people can sit and wait and limit the upside
We all know how bad the management has been and the risks here.
Simply trade on a potential drill, drill doesn’t happen likely to loose, drill does happen you have 30 days to exit before results
This isn’t a £30-100m company any more. Its £8m so there is likely more chance of a spike on speculation than before
Even after the drill , they will have a rusty rig worth £1-2m and £1-2m cash, so a third of current mcap is covered by that.
Just have to accept that the BOD are idiots and the PR unlikely
The liquidity has come from the placing shares but as per todays RNS around 14% of the company plus are held by placees (assuming Cantor and Spreadex only cross due to their client taking on placing shares)
So there is still over £1m in from placing and these people want their quick return.
Normally has to trade 3/4 times to be totally clear of flippers.
In this case, maybe these flippers want more than 1-5% - some sold pre admission on T trades as we’re using leverage, others forward sold short and settled via the placing.
A run of buyers I think will test the last bit of the placees here. As I say I think this will have one last spike and then the curtains will stay open or close forever
RJ- I was cautioning on what was happening and it happened.
So if we are being pedantic, I could say i made the right call, but it’s more now, the market needs something as if they are forced to take a massive loss, there is no way they will take a chance on this mob again.
I’ve never seen Cantor hold a position on behalf of clients at HE1 nor the amount of TR1 on nominee accounts being submitted.
It’s all very odd but the last people HE1 can afford to shaft is the flippers of the stock.
Hence at all time lows, I just think they have one last spike in them before lights are out.
All imo - it’s as risky as it gets here and I think everyone knows it.
But it’s still trading volume and that’s all that really matters on aim
Chesh- not sure what your implying?
i negative overall on HE1- unless they get a new management team- this will never be an investable company
for now trade the proposed spud trade is on. they wouldnt stuff their mates at Cantor with 7% of the company- they will get something going for them to sell at a profit!
Blu- it is dead- none of what they did was independantly verified- they couldnt get to any depth- the geology failed them
this is the second time- they was proud that this rig could go twice the depth that was required and the reality is that it cannot
they dont have the money to re-enter tai- they wont use the same location, if they were to ever drill there again, it will be at a new location, as they will pretend there is new data
the shareprice now is so low that any dilution for a well that costs £15m all in is just too much, they just cannot raise that sort of capital
therefore they need itumbula to come in to give them any chance of surviving- literally forget Tai or any other asset
BUT the mcap is currently cash and the market has alot of stock it wants to make profit on
that why this is a trade from here on that basis only
this share is a insiders dream and they are all laughing at the people that think this is a serious outfit!
sarah cope has made so much money for her mates- they love her!
I dont actually think they have any real data- i think its a complete punt as they know Tai is dead and the other propsects in the portfolio are worthless or need big cash to develop over 2 years before drilling
this is the last throw of the dice, since lorna took over there hasnt been any real meaningful PR, just aload of nonsense about local communities etc
for me they are setting up to take the licences elsewhere if Itumbula is a fail
the company will go under in under 6 months, they will take the licences to the new company they set up and try and reverse that into another BS aim company or another listing somewhere else
for now- this is a total gamble trade- there will be a spike at some stage- whether thats 20 or 50% who knows but they wont let all their city mates get stuck in this, so expect some BS tweet or something just to let their mates out
trade from here untl 0.30 or maybe more and then leave the dreamers to hope they nail itumbula
no point thinking about anything else at this stage- as its a make or break 2 weeks for HE1 and the market wont want to be left behind- esp Cantors who are an MM with 7% on their book!
There was no 2 month rig up
the company has said that it was rigging up 21st so thats 2 weeks - still way too long but they prob repairing everything on the rig
im as negative here as they come but lets not throw silly dates out there
I dont it has anything to do with the rig- as far as we are aware that is fixed, as thats what the company told us! Albeit, the idiots should at least tell the shareholders for confidence
Its more of a case of sending home the entire rig crew (all independant) they need to get everyone back and as they never paid people properly on TAI, they probably need to get some new ones in!
So that probably why the delay in spud is early Jan to get everyone on site post x-mas and get used to the kit and each other etc etc etc
you would expect a tweet this week from the company- then maybe an rns next week
i think this week is probably the trade on week- pre news imo dyor
The thing we all know with this lot is its never as it appears and Lorna is not a CEO
they never promoted TAI-3 and they havent said a word on Itumbula and its prospects
they leave the investors in the dark and hence you get all this bs on a bb as everyone is just guessing!
Terrible PR and management and they all need to walk a plank
HOWEVER, reality is, ITUMBULA is the last plank to walk here, failure and its curtains, delays and its curtains
they raised at such a stupid price that they have actually made it impossible for them to raise again!
they woukd need £10m if any problems with Itumbula and at 0.10p that would be 10billion shares!
given that they couldnt raise above 1p and had a 90% haircut then im being generous
In saying all of this, its at ALL TIME lows, they have told and continue to tell the market that they will be drilling in under two weeks (early jan)
so any type of positive PR and you are likely to see a positive spike from these levels- thats the trade on volume and speculation.
the rest is just all up for debate.
from 0.25p you have to think traders can make some cash before the drill starts or the lights go out! there is nearly always one last spike in every AIM dog and you cannot get much more of a dog than this
you take your chances - success on Itumbula 2 bags and then a raise. no dice- well its under 0.10 and 5 months before they realise they have drained all cash and its over
200-300% upside or a zero
take your bets