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No-one that subscribed to the RI (115p) will sell at these prices (unless they have averaged down sufficiently). I haven’t (and I’m holding a lot) and Asfari won’t - his paper loss is huge - and althiugh he’s picked up a few on remuneration distributions, so far as I can see nothing to pull back the dial significantly.

I won’t be selling and I cant see a company in real trouble hiring on such a scale as PFC. Medori and co are not idiots and have some skin i the game themselves.

20th fast approaching but, whilst interesting, it will leave many inanswered questions (with long period before next TU unless quarterly reporting introduced).

Confident of a big uptick )if TU sufficient to make shorts unwind).

GLALTH

Poker - totally fair point. Don’t think that I’m not aware of your common sense response.

PFC not my only asset but I do have a big holding.

Why? Because there is the another side to the dichotomy (to the one that you propound) which is that PFC has such substantial growth potential in a hugely burgeoning potential contracts environment. You’ve only got to look at ADNOC claiming upto $150bn potential contact awards over next few years - that by no means the only pie into which PFC are able potentially to stick their fingers - to see big stakes for PFC to play for.

Also, ownership is comforting as are some of the management figures.

In the alternative, significant improvements to fundamentals are required. Management will be tested.

I overall, I’m a risk taker. The potential for multiple SP increases over time is there / alluring. In 3- years, PFC may look a very different animal. I won’t be selling in that time frame.

I understand the alternative….. custard …. but, on balance, presently, I see phoenix more than pancake (to mix metaphors).

I enjoy / respect your feedback.

Poker may be right on negative shareholder value currently but that should change if there is competent management. So, agree (risk / reward) - gambling - plus buy now for right to receive future uptick.

Just bought 50000. Too cheap if fundamentals not changed. Got to be in it to win it…

So, the dichotomy… buy shares now, gain if SP rises in line with previous guidance of break even by Y/E 2023 with potential for signifiant gain if profits result from increased backlog; or, possible wipe out if all goes to custard.

Poker - by the same logic, is is overpriced at 23p?

Assuming solvency - that’s a judgment - isn't PFC the opportunity to buy into forward profits from current and future backlog i.e. growth potential (possibly larger than most places I can see).

Just added 50000 at 45p but pure punt from reading tealeaves.

Positive : Management have put out statements that suggest confidence in current backlog and possible future contracts.

Uncertainty: h1 outlook was breakeven cashflow at y/e (with significant debt carry). Will h2 results be better or worse?

Could go either way but I’ve just voted with my feet (despite all the widener markets depressing sentiment).

Might this buck the trend…..

Good point. The dog (Fido) is filtered / muzzled anyway…

JG69

I agree but also financial update on legacy funds and new order cash inflows in Dec will be seminal. Are PFC at ‘broadly cash flow neutral’ at 2023 year end (as Alfonso said in H1 update) or better (or worse).

The risk (that might lead to a rights issue) is delay in legacy close out (with further cost overruns or reduced completion payouts). So, I agree with Poker that any new sizeable orders - Tennet 2 or other - can’t come soon enough but the shorts and general market depression will weight on SP until positive cash flow news is delivered.

That said, the sheer scale of 2023 new order intake is comforting for LT holders (with resulting upfront cash payments ) and unless legacy wounds are still festering, I can’t think that a rights issue is likely (as you say).

There’s a lot of drivel on this board (from those with an agenda or little understanding of running a company). PFC has taken a (part self inflicted) battering and SP is suffering opportunism / manipulation but Dec financial update should show the phoenix rising….

In the lead-up, another big contract win announcement could be around the corner and would assist (along with Tennet 2). Evidence of substantial PFC hiring might give a clue…

JXP - would this make them preferred bidder?

15.09.2020 - not new but worth recall - Petrofac’s Engineering and Production Services (EPS) business today announces the award of a multi-million dollar Integrated Services Contract with Ithaca Energy (Ithaca).

In a new five-year deal, Petrofac will integrate operations, maintenance, engineering, construction, and onshore and offshore technical support across Ithaca’s North Sea operated asset base.

The contract extends Petrofac’s existing working relationship with Ithaca, as well as the duration and breadth of services it provides for the Alba, Captain, Erskine and FPF-1 assets, building on the operations, engineering and support services it has been providing since 2011.

OnU - lots of good points there.

I’m an ‘unprofessional’ investor with a lot of skin in the PFC LTH game. And… I’m persuaded / fascinated (as well as invested) in the PFC phoenix story.

I just can’t see - all things being equal - that SP will not rise meteorically over the next 2-3 years. They are so well positioned for burgeoning back-log and hopefully significant EBIT. The doom-mongers and shorters will be taking fright soon-ish.

ADNOC and Saudi are key but as you say decomm may become an integral element (that few others can match).

Fingers crossed for significant SP uptick over 2023 / 2024.

Mav - nice climb to over 78.. thoughts?

OnU - agree with your points. ADNOC contract re-builds (lost) confidence.

But, although a decent size (and very welcome), on its own, not enough to change SP dial sufficient to break hold of bots.

I fear SP may return to low 70s by close.

Now (presumably) 2023 backlog over $6bln (with Tenet H2 (2nd) wind station to come (so $7bln +) by H2 end.

To make (another) statement to significantly influence SP (and put shorts on the run) a c.$3bln contract - ideally, a headline grabber - required, IMO.

Without that SP may remain stuck in the clutches of the bots in the low to mid 70s.

H1 TU in c.6-weeks will be interesting.. 2023 Y/E EBIT is key to SP uptick.

I get your point… back log almost doubled in H1 (with anticipated 2nd wind station contract execution in H2 with PFC share flagged at $1Bln; plus $14Bln other bids due for award in 2013 (including 5 or 6 ADNOC contracts where PFC ‘hopeful’) so backlog could be c.$7Bln plus by 2013 year end.

Were it not for loss guidance at H1 and only break even by 2023 year end the SP should have flown (on recent back log news).

Closing-out dying contracts (and procuring funds); and turning backlog into revenue to result in EBIT profitability (and flagging path to future divis) is key to SP uptick.

Analysts are usually way off the curve and lazy reporting (often with Agenda).

Not at all concerned in short term (but 2023 year end reporting will be seminal).

SP £2.40 nowhere near enough. Wouldn’t get my vote (and major contracts anticipated).

Another couple do Bn in Back log by end of Q2 i.e. another Tenet wind station (1Bn) plus an ADNOC contract (TBC) and looking at c.7.5Bn backlog at 2023 year end.

When was the order book at that level and what was the SP.

Obviously, dilution, EBITDA and cash flow relevant to SP.

IMO, BetterX has it nailed…

I listened to Q&A with Alfonso today.

For me, the most interesting colour given was that PFC have bid on 5 or 6 contracts of varying sizes with ADNOC and are hopeful of winning some (but all due for award in 2023).

The £50m loss is largely legacy write downs.

Still a waiting game … but there’s good reasons to be hopeful…. with H1 results presentation in c.6-weeks.

Starting the road to recovery.

Backlog over 5.5m - this level not seen for a few years - (significantly reversing downward trend) with 14bn potential scheduled for award before end of 2023 (and currently 57m in 2024).

IMO future is looking brighter / gloom lifting.-

Need that EBIT to be positive by full year release with guiding to 2024 EBIT positive.

New awards now key (as is margin on backlog).

Poised for SP uptick…

I dont agree. AGM is where dividend policy for the year should be confirmed.

Agree that divis wont be paid until cash flow allows. Could he several years sadly.

I couldn't see anything in AGM agenda that referred to dividend policy (although plenty on Directors remuneration). Am I wrong?

Poker…

As you say Operating Profit / net margin is key in 2023 (where another loss is likely) but that OP needs to cover both O/H and interest payments (and ideally depreciation and debt reductions) before, IMO, profit can be contemplated for divi distribution.

I haven't worked out what OP they need to do much or all of that - have you? - but once that figure is established, assuming a 5% margin, the scale of WIP required, year in year, can be identified.

My guess is that PFC need to pull in another $3bn contract in 2023-4 (to add to existing / known back-log) and then year on year at least $6bn WIP.

Poker..

Agree with your general travel… but given the apparent / ongoing manipulation of SP, what interests me (as MTH) is what level of contract awards do PFC need to deliver (predicated on presumption of, say, 5% gross profit margin) to move into profit.

Yes, there been decent contract wins in recent RNS but it’s hard for PIs to pin down net income delivery year on year.

Tennet is probably only 1nr facilty (of 6nr) to be awarded in 2023 and even if PFC share on that is 50% of $2bn that not more than $50m gross income (after project costs) and only a small part payable in 2023.

And, there is other back-log / WIP but dwindling (bar new contracts).

IMO, SP movement is substantially reliant on at least 1nr multi-bn ADNOC-type contract in the short term.

Any thoughts…?