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Walt / Paddy - are there more relevant factors to dwell on… like almost 50% rise in SP over little more than 1-month (with ONLY c.£500m estimated new contracts disclosed): Asfari stepping down relatively soon (although not known whether his investment in PF will be retained); Medori - a good influence - staying on for 12-months plus; and, the background noise for significant wins over the next 9-24-months etc. Looks good for PFC (if no major surprises)….

Colonel - much as I’d like you to be on the button (on new ADNOC awards upcoming) excerpts from Sami’s 2021 year end presentation below to manage expectations:-
1. 2021-22 : anticipated revenue reduction. New contract awards unlikely to contribute to revenue until 2023 (due to back-weighting of awards);
2. 2022 is the tipping point;
3. Accelerated growth in 2023 anticipated;
4. Oil price now supports client investment;
5. MENA awards are most profitable; least costly in construction; and likely to endure the longest;
6. Maintaining cash and bidding disclipline is fundamental;
7. Recovery wont happen overnight but progress will be made in 2022.

So, burgeoning awards anticipated but only towards Q4 and into 2023.

Hope that resume is unduly pessimistic….

Colonel - do you still see the big seller as (only) Schroders? See 273k traded @ 113.5 just on close?
If so, they are either selling at a loss (on 115) or selling from their other holding acquired around 91.
Seems odd to me that they selling now (with y/e a/cs release less than 1-month away) unless they know something or have been talking to Putin….
Thoughts?

JC - good question : why not send request to PFC investor relations….

Colonel - have they stopped selling at c10.35?

Colonel - cant disagree with your summary and I thought your various emails were on the button and very informative / helpful so, also agree with your put down of the cods from Tony.

I had a reasonable size order on all day @ 114.9 and couldn’t see why it wasn't filled until the RNS…. Still think we might open lower but we’ve all had enough of the snakes and need to see some ladders now.

Keep them coming….

Bought a chunk below 125 yesterday. Mildly surprised that SP didn't sink to 120 and early rally today….

But, ever more reports suggesting Rusky incursion likely - millions of free Rusky passports granted by Putin to Ukraine nationals; local thug preparing the way in various areas of Ukraine…. and despite the arguments for OP and GP uplift if war arrives, my take is that the initial shock on incursion will tank SP again.

So, 115 is my short term target for SP. Funds ready just in case. That said, hope I’m wrong; that Putin pulls back; and PFC contract wins announced pre March statement.

And then there’s Gazprom. Is that just technical assistance or will there be tangible contract benefits in short term for PFC?

(Almost Russian) roulette …..

Colonel - enjoying your reports but fear that Ukraine will rumble on. Putin wants a big concession from US and brinkmanship takes a while.

Unless positive PFC RNS, I expect to be buying at 130 next week. Full results (mid March) will be the big one for SP….

Colonel - I’ll give it more thought but my initial view is that I’d be surprised if Asfari sold for SP 750 - more in old money - but that all depends on the size of contracts / profit margins. Timing will be everything but for 3-years and probably more, I’d be very comfortable that he’d stay put and I totally agree that we’re on the right horse. Thanks a mill for the reply.

Just checked : 520m shares in circulation; Asfari (89m); Asfari & Family (65m); Schroders (57m); Tosca (16m); Other Officers (1m) Total : 227m (43.6%). Haven't seen Articles but company sale will only happen with consent of Asfari and Schroders. And that wont happen at these SP levels or anything close IMO.

But… Colonel… am I not right in saying that the Asfari / Schroders shareholding could (if they so chose) block any PFC sale, which you might presume Asfari (at least) would want to do predicated on potential growth and previous SP levels guidance. If I were Asfari, I wouldn't be considering a sale anywhere near the current SP (and I cant see why Schroders would have increased their holding if they foresaw such a small SP gain as they would see currently). Both must have had a nod on potential contracts when they participated in the open offer.

Am I missing something in what you said?

Yup - habit. Point taken

Colonel - thank you again and hard to disagree. £5.00 (if not £7) target for 2022 or thereabouts is good rationale for a medium term hold.

Colonel - another couple of interesting emails from you. Thanks. Keep them coming.

Do we know what the PFC back-log was just prior to SFO investigation RNS?

Relative to what you say on SP (and what we know now on present back-log i.e. before any new contract press releases), where do you think the SP should be (taking account of the new shares issued) with a similar back log to pre-SFO?

John Burford is suggesting (from charts only) that 1st target before new shares dilution might be £7.00.

Colonel - most grateful for your time and concise thoughts.

I’m a bit of a follower of trend lines and John Burford (my guru on that) and I’d refer to your gap as being above a resistance line with a previous low above that, hence your gap.

But, I now understand what you were saying.

And, actually, once the 130’s are left behind, I suspect that PFC will motor up to the 160s before a short pull back. We’re starting the climb on the stairs now (with no down elevator on the horizon).

Many thanks…

Colonel - for the uninitiated - Me - can you explain the ‘gap’ point that you made, please?

If you haven’t listened to PFC 16th Dec 2021 trading update broadcast, it’s worth 15-mins. In response to Barclays analyst (1st Q), Alfonso v bullish on ADNOC etc bidding restrictions release and anticipated 20-30% win ratio on new contracts predicated on US$40m potential. Surprisingly, no update or Qs on Gasprom significance / contract potential. Maybe in March statement. Fingers crossed…..

Ah, Colonel… it’s the hope that kills…..

Nice little uptick … and then into quiet trading over Xmas / NY break…

Oh well…..

Clowns at the circus….

Sanity returns. Thanks for posting an email that cuts through the noise, Colonel. Much appreciated. Keep them coming….
Contract wins / backlog augmentation and ADNOC reintegration plus market sentiment reversal is required for SP uptick. Patience required.

As someone else said (wisely) ….. elevator down… stairs up (or more like snakes and ladders).