Shorts Undone3 Oct 2021 09:55
Paddy / Mary - thank you both. I bought a few before ADNOC in the 135 range and most in 90s so melded below 100. This could be a game changer for me (but it was a big, calculated risk to go in so big).
I’m a holder - it’s not my day job so can’t stare at the screen all day - so trying to become a day trader and buy the micro-dips etc is not my thing unless predetermined.
Monday feels like a day to keep ‘on it’ as it could be wild and my feeling is that the price will rise as a result of a lower than priced-in fine (say, £100m). Having reached a peak - whether that’s the c.200 - 250 range - the question is : what then? Will that range hold bar minor-ish troughs?
And then move up if traffic lights turn green over time on the other issues.
I see Burford’s 700 as a target not a specific but I can see, moving toward, that price coming into view over time IF a number of profitable contracts are won and soon-ish so that the back-log can be built up and year-on-year significant profitability demonstrated consistently in the full year figures.
But, there are negatives too - we don’t know, for example, whether there will be anything in the H1s that will unsettle and the fine etc could be higher than £100m gross but, I just can’t see that Schroeder's would have added 6% if they hadn't had an inside on SFO action and ongoing contract prospects. And, that’s comforting IMO.
In fact, it makes me confident in taking a medium term hold view.
I’d concur with Mary in thinking that buys at 120 -150 range would pay the piper well. And, at that level I’d add (but I just don’t see that level happening bar major surprises).
I see dips below 200 over time (in the next 6 - 12 months) but a general upward SP profile towards Burford’s target over 3-years (given market conditions turning favourable).
So, as always, the SP is crucial to buying but, although I may kick myself later, I wont be adding if SP gets above 200 but then again I hope it does and expect it to do so.
Appreciate your speedy responses.
Fingers crossed that we get a decision on Monday. It’s been a long ride down for many and for those in above £10, it’s just the start of the long drive back to redemption. And, let’s not forget, there will be quite a few fund managers in there at those prices (with their prayer mats out).
ATB
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