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Paddy - i like Fres too and will have a good look at Hoc. PFC is my biggest holding and I’m not selling those so will need to consider selling a few banks to fund mining buys. I do like a divi (and we’d all feel better if PFC pulled in the cash to re-start).
Over and out….fingers crossed for another roller coaster tomoz
And, Paddy, it would be no fun if it was too easy. I remember the underwater times when it wasn't clear that 91p was the floor and Jonny 2 Poos was banging on about buy orders at 78. That was a bit itchy.
But, I held… you sold and came back … and, now it’s time to surf the wave.
Don't pull out too soon.
John Burford’s initial target is 700 (based on the charts). Might take a while but still cant see a better growth potential.
JB likes Hochschild BTW. I’m having a look. Got any decent info links?
Paddy - accepting that there is weariness on the relatively recent SP fluctuation - one slap in the chops after another - I’m surprised at how relatively bearish the PIs are on SP short term growth potential on this BB.
The Schroders buy is is very significant. They are no mugs and they’ve gone in big.
Yes, once this malarkey is finally out of the way and the fine is set, the key is securing high profit contracts.
So, I’d be surprised if we don't see over well over 300 in the next few months and significantly more once a few larger contract wins are announced. How long that takes should be the determinant of the length of hold (if PIs finances allow).
But, the key to SP gains is when the big boys start to buy in again (which will be possible once the SFO have flocked off).
I’ve got a significant shareholding in a tax wrapper and, like you, I’m weighing-up selling other investments to add to PFC.
Even if the fine is more than Jeffreys consider (and it may not be), the SP upward wave will start (possibly after a bit of understandable turbulence / profits-taking), which the shorts are banking on.
I cant see a share with bigger upside…. Unburnt fingers crossed.
Perhaps you / others concur?
ATB
Yeah, Paddyboy, good plan. I did the opposite. Bought in under £1 and held. Ready to ride the wave now… once the hearing is out of the way - pray there’s no adjournment / deferral…. And H1 results announced, it’ll be time to assess fair value.
Still in Melrose?
Yup, gloomy SP and contract wins required. Market on down-tick and shorts advancing. But, Schroders are no fools. Half year results not far away - like Poker, I doubt they will add much - but OP advancing and new contract awards may be getting closer as a result. Need to keep the faith and keep the leeches on the back foot.
I’m still holding lots anticipating an announcement / significant SP improvement in the relatively short term.
Exactly that : no significant contract wins. That said, SP drop seems overdone and fair SP might be 120s.
Need SFO to get off their arses and make a decision before the long march back can begin. Oil price rise will continue IMO and that must be good in opening up contract opps for PFC. But June PFC release suggested contracts market was still depressed.
Shorts not increasing so room for gentle uptick……
Cheer yourselves up with this link https://www.tramlinetraders.com/will-oil-hit-150/
Slift - where’s your evidence for “HY21 results not looking so good”? You may be right but I haven’t seen anything (other than an absence of RNS contract wins). If you have anything, please provide the link.
Wig : never mind 70 pb; we’re on the way to well over 100 pb and up towards 150 pb. EVs may be coming to the Occident in time but tell the Afs or Indians that their prized diesel or petrol vehicles are being phased out. It won’t be happening anytime soon.
The demise of petrochemicals is much overdone and largely irrelevant to the investment period of most on this BB.
Keep the faith…..
I’m new to this BB but also a client of this Bank. Really good guys on lending team and this SP keeps going up. I’m holding for 350p minimum. GLA
Yeah - Jonny 2p and his 78p bids seem a way off just now.
BP held up well today and I still see the death of petrochemicals as well overdone.
Fingers crossed for PFC and a few contract RNSs soon. Coming up to year end so need to see some back-log build up soon.
Good moves on Melrose. Well done…
Paddy - I was wondering what you made of the Shell case and Chevron / Exon shareholder outcomes yesterday and how all that might affect PFC in the short to medium term.
I’m pleased that the SP held up today after those releases…..
Thoughts?
Galveston - I have a large holding in PFC too.
Whilst I appreciate that we are all entitled to assess risk in our own way (and acknowledging that none of us know the way the SFO case will pan out and I thought your discussion with Paddy and Poker was a useful trot through the maze), it seems to me that the question - to hold or not to hold - is a bit more binary.
Present macro issues aside (which are markets driven not PFC specific), the real question is whether the full extent of any bad news for the SFO is already written into the SP. At ATL levels a couple of months ago, it might be argued that more or less whatever the SFO said was (written in). Yes, there’s been a 35% rise since and that might be wiped out on seriously bad news but anything else might well be a positive for the SP.
So, IMO, predicated upon the melded SP that each of us are holding, the question is whether we individually consider (based upon our potential hold period) that the upside for the SP has the potential to be satisfactory (and implied in that is whether the SP risk & reward is better than any other known shares).
IMO the risk (SFO and, perhaps more important, the aggregate size & margin on new contracts) is more than balanced by the potential upside (and better than other known alternative share opportunities).
You may say that all this is trite but I put it out there just as a check / balance against SFO fixation.
And, I do agree with Paddy that the shorters reduction lends confidence (but that could turn quickly if SFO, back-log reduction etc does not go the way we all wish).
Anyhow, GL in your stick or twist decision. My intention is certainly to hold medium term (not least because I’m melded under £1).
Poker - I see this as a relatively short term correction. U.K. and US may be coming out of athe virus lockdown and beginning to crack ahead (leading to some resultant supply shortages) but much of the World is not so lucky. Interest rates may rise a bit in the West but not so as to put too much pressure on markets but your point on India is valid - how lucky we are relatively - but aside from skills, PFC need the World to start moving and restrained price inflation may not be a bad thing if contracts start to be awarded for their skill set.
Closing down now…. but am expecting more of the same tomorrow predicated on inflation and interest rates but considering crypto, miners, banks etc all down on inflation fears, PFC didn’t fair too badly. Seems all in line with John Burford’s guidance
All the best