Member Info for cjgoldsmith

Steady progress but nothing much new. Patience required

Worrying if this is the case. To me the volume suggest a seller moving on - reasons known to them. A planned 50% production growth annually would suggest that unsuccessful work overs should not be too bigger issue. This is an ambitious plan and I like the diversification into gas. The low amount of capital raised recently suggests that the market fails to see much meaningful change til H2 and beyond. We're also into slow news period, general market jitters and end of tax year. Let's see what happens.

Good post. Trying to time the market is impossible. Always good to hear negative postings to challenge ones analysis. If people trying to bash a stock it's pretty easy to spot. Harder to spot those ramping sometimes. At 25p it's a good price providing the deal comes together. My perspective on oil is that it's unlikely to drop as OPEC will intervene and shale from US will drop much quicker ..main risk is massive slow down in economy. For me it's a 3-5year hold unless a big spike post announcement. I'm keeping a bit in reserve just in case deal is delayed further. Some have moved on, got bored or dislike uncertainty, my view is such opportunities can be pretty rewarding providing fundamentals are strong. Geopolitical risks is there but am prepared to accept this.

The issue of equity to increase liquidity is nonsense. It's an insult to our intelligence. This chestnut was quoted before - it made no difference. It is purely to bring forward development at a more appealing price. President is at a point of trying to make the transition from small cap to midtier. A bit like SDX. A bopd >7k will help as will diversification to gas and power generation. ARG listing will help. Dividend perhaps but I'd prefer at this growth stage to plough back into business. Buyback not yet. Paraguay drilling should bring speculative buyers in and if unsuccessful then an opportunity to buy more might present. Perhaps hopeful thinking but I think PL is trying to diversify, strengthen its core base (quickly) enlarge shareholder register and seek to add through acquisition H2 a bigger prize. I see PPC as a growth story and not a takeout target at least at this stage.

I was a keen listener. It's to bring forward gas production. An exit rate 10k bopd in 2021 before acquisitions. Increasing reserves and resources. Growth in scale means more options to raise finance without dilution was an interesting comment from PL. The admission that message of growth not perceived by market. If I hear the excuse of increase liquidity to the market (this chestnut was used last time) again total rubbish.As Nice says let these non current shareholders buy in the open market. Usual powderpuff questions from analysts .... when is a dividend coming? Buyback? We're throwing of cash for heaven's sake. Small amount of debt being paid off by PL. Mixed bag. I'll probably buy more at 8p that being said it's still v cheap.

Don't worry all. Value always out eventually. I hope that Peter doesnt take this company private. They're just getting on with business. Once we start drilling on Paraguay or there's another acquisition then it'll be a catalyst for a rerate. In meantime build position slowly.

SAVP. It's where the 50% left of my money went

He does. Nice to see

Making very solid progress.

Director buying r u still in closed period? – I can confirm now we have been inside throughout 2018. It is inevitable this will be the case quite a lot as we are actively looking at ways to grow DKL. The transaction on 21 December is effectively a DKL director share buy so it is clear we were not in a closed period at this point in time. Whilst I appreciate it is frustrating as I understand the importance of this question for investors I am not allowed to confirm either way whether we are in a closed period as at today or Director intention regarding future buying. Linking to the question earlier, I would take the 4.5p shares accepted as a positive sign that we believe there is of course material potential upside from there and any further director trades will be announced.

Why the drop in valuation from €18m to €6m euros on the cashew deal – the €18m minimum valuation was set in the future post commencing production where as the €6m valuation reflects the valuation now at the pre production stage. The last equity investment into cashews was undertaken nearly 12 months ago at a €6m valuation which is why this valuation was chosen. Clearly as you have seen there have been positive developments since then and the independent valuation suggests a valuation materially higher. Like all construction projects this phase has its challengers. DKL shareholders should take it as a positive we have now brought in people who delivered our Palm Oil mill really well and we hope construction runs smoothly so we are producing and selling cashews in 2020.

The statement that the board has been ‘awarded share’s’ is simply incorrect. I refer you to the announcement on 26 June and in particular the related party section which hopefully makes things clear. In summary, Cashews has been in progress for a long time independent of Dekeloil between 3 DKL board members and led by unrelated and non dekeloil asia based investors who have all invested over a number of years. Dekeloil has bought a stake of 43.8% at a price substantially cheaper price than the independent valuation of the cashew project. And on the other side we have paid over 45% more than the market price for dekeloil shares. So we have given away considerable value on both sides as it stands. If you want some indication as to what this can be worth there are nearly 40% of shareholders of cashews who at this point in time have flatly refused to give DKL an option to acquire the shares even at a minimum valuation of €18m. Norpalm you should consider on hold.

Can you ask LM how long on current projections before we see a profit on this 6m euros? More importantly what does this mean for Norpalm? If Norpalm is dead, then they should announce it. If it is not they should get on with it if they can. Finally as all news is currently out there one assumes, when will directors be joining us by investing in the company rather than being awarded shares? In terms of the independent valuation of the cashew project ( I can’t share this unfortunately as it is prepared for the benefit of the non exec directors in assessing the deal) it is already worth considerably more than €6m on a heavily discounted NPV. Given it has materialised from an option to an investment I would expect the brokers will need to issue new research assessing its value so hopefully there will be some numbers in the market shortly. In terms of proof of the valuation, 2020 is the first production year so we should start to see its impact.

Where does LJM think we will be this time next year? Our new years wish was certainly for more favourable trading conditions. In terms of what we can control we feel everything is in place to capitalise in 2019 on expecred improvements in overall FFB levels and maximise selling prices. Certainly we hope at this time next year cashew will be advanced to ensure we can start buying in the cashew season which starts in February 2020. One good thing about cashews is they can be stored so the time sensitivities on having the Mill ready are not as dramatic as a palm oil mill where you cannot store FFB. We think in time the cashews has the potential to more than double our profit potential. I will ensure I provide more flavour on this question on the next audio as well and I would expect following the cashew investment the market analysts will need to revisit the numbers and we should see some figures on cashews publicly disclosed.

Now that we are a multi sector business, has there been any though on renaming to something like Dekel Group? Whenever I mention Dekeloil to people and the first thing they hear about is Palm Oil, their eyes glaze over and are not interested in investing. The recent bad publicity around Palm Oil isn't helping us, despite us being an ethical company. Interesting question. The same question has crossed our mind although I would say we have had bigger issues to deal with. 1. Being mitigating the tough trading conditions in 2018 and 2. Getting the cashew transaction completed and helping to set up all the pre operations capex, operational and financing. It could make some sense but the Dekeloil brand name in the Ivory Coast is a strong positive one so we would need to weigh that up with any change to reflect our movement into multiple commodities. But Dekeloil shareholders should be proud of the positive contribution we make and some of the commentary on palm oil in general, which mainly relates to Indonesia is rather unbalanced.

know he can't say much on this point, but what is the latest re FFB's returning to 'normal' levels in Q4? Again, we are 3 months in the dark. Q4’s we aim to release on the 10th as promised. What I can say is it has been proven dangerous to assess quarters both positive ones and negatives ones stand alone. We will always see volatility between quarters so it is best to assess over 2-3 quarters. It is also one of the reasons we prefer not to release monthly as it will simply add to the volatility and create confusing guidance. A perfect example is Q4 2017 which was extremely high compared to typical Q4 levels and was followed by a very poor high season when FFB levels matter most. I am slightly contradicting myself but Q1 2019 is of course rather important given the low levels of FFB last year and given it is generally our highest production quarter for the year and therefore has the biggest influence on the years profitability. The prevailing view is that it will be a better high season but there are no gua

I see this as a positive accusation, but the 4.5p debacle leaves a bad taste in the mouth. Can LJM assure us that this is not the new 'normal' and when does he foresee the SP back in the 10p - 20p range? The DKL share price at the time of the transaction was 3.3p. This could have been the price of the transaction however we believe it should be seen as a very strong signal that shares were taken at 4.5p (48% premium). Clearly those who took shares at 4.5p believe that there is much upside from this level in order to accept this price.

Re Norpalm, LJM said no more dilution and any acquisitions would be paid for out of future profits, why has this changed? Clearly 2018 has seen almost unprecedented challenging external conditions. The level of FFB available in the high season was close to 20% lower than last year and the resultant increase in competition for the FFB also led to record premiums paid for the FFB. This was further compounded by a strong euro in the first half (this has now improved) which meant USD international palm oil prices converted into much lower Euro prices. As the year went on we reached 25 year lows in palm oil prices as well. So the both the top line Revenue and Gross Margin havw been much lower than we all saw in 2015-2017 and cashflow growth this year has been stymied by these factors. However, we believe that in this instance that the dilution is far outweighed by the gain. At the prevailing stock price at the time of the transaction DKL has paid £1.6m for 43.6% of the cashew project. Based on the current and future valuation potential being considerably higher (both based on independent valuations) of this project therefore it is the boards opinion that this is a really good deal for DKL shareholders. In terms of no dilution I was actually referring to Norpalm in particular where the plan was to fund internally. Funding internally is always the preference but if we see opportunities like cashews where the gain from the dilution is far greater we will consider proceeding. There is some further commentary below on the cashew valuation and external analysts will need to assess its impact on share price targets which we believe will be positive.

It the nail on the head. Should have bailed when they revealed the deal with True, such an appalling low percentage. Lifestyle company. Sure they might cover their expenses but this low PoO, I wouldn't bet on it. Lucky I didn't average down (28 in my case). It's not even a speculative play now. DTU clearly not what the industry need. Montana - gone quiet. Perhaps the water diversification might work out. West Denver .... Bottom drawer for me. Now where's my hat?

My average.