Member Info for cjgoldsmith

Morning everyone. Apologies haven't posted but things have been a bit busy in hospital. However, we are coming out of the first wave and so spirits are good. Then there is welcome news from SAVE. I had a brief look at yesterdays RNS and was so pleased with what I saw. Astonished to see SP this am so have added another 20% to my holding (av 13 now) . Valuation is totally irrational. I guess people are discounting on Nigeria's issues with low oil price and concerns of economic viability. Sentiment is on the floor. This price is a gift IMHO look at the cash received.

Hi all

Response from Lincoln below:

Guitry Question

The board is working with the following framework:

We would are looking to increase the scale of the group. This can be done a few ways:
trying to help farmers increase volumes on our first project and protect and grow market share – there is a lot involved in explaining this which I would happy to share a separate note.
executing new projects: cashews, clean energy, a third commodity and Guitry
Each project is continually assessed to prioritise available resources to get the maximum return on investment
At this stage we believe the priority is cashews which is in construction and will be a production asset early next year
Now we are in the middle of Covid-19 we are progressing pipeline projects but will not commit to capex to these projects at least until we get some clarity
We described Guitry as a ‘long term project in our 2019 interims released in September 19. Guitry we currently see as falling down the pecking order behind cashew, clean energy and a third commodity at this point for the following reasons:
It needs potentially 60m plus of capex
It will be a long time to first revenue (5-6 years if we plant oil palm)
We have seen many others go down this path of a large scale plant out and have very poor outcomes without an absolute guarantee of the full funding from a partner
We still value the Guitry project so we have committed to the small nursery in the region to continue local engagement and we are working on ESG aspects

Hi. Most of those posting on that forum will be speculating for a lift in price of oil. Personally I don't care too much. Oil will not stay at its level for very long. The cure for low prices is low prices it's just how long? Saudi Arabia/Russia will be hurting just not as much as US shale or higher cost producers. 10m cut that Trump is proposing won't touch the sides from short term demand destruction and I can never see a situation when US will restrict oil supply it's against their very principle of free markets. My personal view is that there might be a cut but the market would be disappointed. However I wouldn't be surprised to see significant improvement in oil price when things settle down in H2 and demand rises when shale producers have curtailed production due to the economics as they need >50$ oil. I like SAVP gas business which is why I am here with Niger upside (latter will have to wait)

I totally get that. I think I bought in 20s firstly current average 14. It's my largest holding % terms. It's the only meaningful share I've topped up on from oil and gas sector in AIM added a bit PPC. I've added a lot of bigger dividend companies, met coal, shipping, agriculture, base metaland gas (Canada) but all NYSE TSX companies with bigger MC. I'm not expecting anything from OPEC + so we might see some weakness and have a bit of cash to add if we see a drop. Good luck with all your investments - better times will come

Hi. That's right. Finally heard back from IR on 31st (after chasing up). Mainly my query about the article (in Dec) that had some people, including myself worried and concerned about payments that many of us had. Her response wa the article was "unfounded". Comment regarding payment guarantees exact wording "have never had to call on it". My assumption therefore is we are being paid. Of course does it mean we are being paid in full? Well the answer wasn't specific nor did I ask are we being paid in full. Many posters clearly have doubts and given selling pressure I'm not surprised. I would assume that if there were issues than they are duty bound to release this material information. I would agree that a RNS would help allay fears. I guess if it's business as usual no RNS is needed. I'm justifying the drop as bond holders selling, sentiment and being punished for debt. If it turns out there are issues with payment I'll be extremely angry.

Hi. Heard back from Sally last week they haven't had call on the guarantees in place for either Calabar or Unichem. Glad to hear work is preceding and staff are healthy. That's most important thing. Hope all of those that post are keeping well. Sad to say we lost one of our nurses on Sunday. ATB cj

Thanks Kalan. No doubt it will be a terrible few months. From colleagues in Italy it's truly terrifying, 14 dead doctors, of those tested positive 8% are healthcare worker. Significant proportion of
hospitilized patients are under 50. I hope government go further with restrictions this week. Dedicated segregated areas in our A and Es and we are planning for mass admissions, mass ventilation 4 fold increase, likely to be 8 fold. Medical students will be drafted in, even vets, refresh training for me in ventilation (and my wife also a medic - different hospital). Likely no leave for half a year. Hope it's not as bad and would pray I'm proven wrong. Losing a bit money not that important, more annoyed no holiday in August most important we are healthy. All the best. cj

We should all be very worried. Panic no. Personally government I think are handing it well except for PPE supply shortages. Hopefully it won't be as bad as Italy. The hospital I work in have actually got good planning in place.

Added more today. Lots of automatic trades. Sure sector sentiment is terrible. However fcf will be predicted to same has market cap. Bargain

Another 30% added today after this week's decimation across the sector. This will either be a master stroke or a big mistake. Let's see.

Making X3 money in 5 years isn't bad investment IMO.

Why can't things progress quickly? Sure the Seven transaction was very long but since then we have made progress. Once the market sees FCF, Niger plans with possible farmout the price will improve at least 50p and have my own target of £1 in 5years. Whilst fears of recession loom large I think might bode well for us as majors will find it cheaper to buy companies than explore, or if not taken out Buybanks and dividends will then prove difficult for fund managers to ignore.

For me SAVP is being viewed through the prism of debt and geopolitical risk. My personal view is that the acquisition of Nigerian business on improved terms will... eventually prove a good bit of business. It will generate cash flow at decent margins with ample spare capacity in a growing country and economy which consume energy. It gives us the potential to develop Niger resources with a export route being built in a country that want to encourage investment. Thesw factors make the investment case compelling. Be patient

Evening all. Always enjoy the posts on this forum. I understand the despondency. However, I feel confident about the future. I've sat on a number of shares where I've seen drops of 50% only to see healthy returns from my original investment. String of news from Shell CEO carbon neutral pledge, UK potentially bringing forward banning fossil fuels cars, Total presentation having solar panels on its front and Tesla stock price reaching all time highs. I was driving back home and after a commute of an hour I saw 1 Tesla which reminded me to look past the noise. The market/investors and fund manager sees no future in fossil fuels at all right now. Some posters have helpfully listed % drops of followed companies. If you want to see decimation look at Alberta O and G industry it's worse. I can find a company with decent resources, a PE ratio 3 pays a monthly dividend amounting to 10%pa and trades significant below Book value and whose shares have lost >90 in 5 years and have multi TCF gas reserves. For those interested it's Peyto. I'm buying because the future is gas at least for next couple of decades. So why SAVP?

Like an episode of Dallas with our very own JR.

In for penny in for a pound. Valuation is even more compelling now. Similar so to when there was uncertainty over Seven completion. Clearly oil E and P companies have been suffering and to me SAVP has become a "show me" story now which is often been a good entry point for me on prior investments. Impatience, has been some willing sellers. Surprised no insider buying but perhaps negotiations regarding partners and future deals maybe ongoing. Good luck all.

Happy 2020. Doubled my holding. Now 5p average. AMER now sold out of. Time for company to deliver!

Well doubled my holding today. Dodged the AAOG bullet but certainly like the asset a lot when I looked at it a while ago. The catalogue of drilling issues and lack of leadership did for AAOG the government IMO saw this and hence payments weren't made. Consider it's previous high MC clearly many investors saw potential. The dilution for ZEN is brutal but TBH I'd like to pick up a Christmas bargain. Frustration about AZER but I suspect seasonal delays. More drama than a Netflix blockbuster as someone elluded to. I'm in the ride and hope for a pleasant exit rather than a crash. Let's see. GL LTH. Happy 2020.

Ditto. The market hasn't favoured EOG.

6. Consider walking away if BoD fail to meet their own set objectives (unless extremely good explanation)