Member Info for cjgoldsmith

Nice post. I refrained from posting due to the aggressive responses to my valuation in July. I've broken even having been invested for a number of years. I will give it a few weeks for a counterbid but I agree that it is unlikely. The BoD have failed to exploit the most from their acreage. I optimistically hoped for 24p but sadly nearer my valuation reposted below...

Compare SOCO acquisition of Merlon. A 7k BOPD producer, low cost, on shore in a proven basin completed this year. SOCO paid just over 200m USD. Merlon had 22m debt and similar 2p reserves to AMER. Both countries have geopolitical risk which are similar IMO (social issues/government receivables). Oil prices were similar. SOCO valued Merlon about £150m approx at current exchange rates. Of course there is the OBA with its strategic value and 3rd party royalty bit let's remember current PLAT production has struggled to be maintained and this should be thought about. Let's say 50m USD in AMER bank or 40m pounds with current mcap £200 we'd be valued at 16p which is exactly where we ended up on Friday or Merlons value. Of course AMER acreage has greater blue sky potential but these are unproven resources. I put a value of this and OBA of £50-100m so best case 24p. I'd love you to be right at valuing this company at £600m or a .....Genel. Genel has 160m free cash flow, x7 times P2 reserve of AMER, 34k BOPD, cash in bank (similar) and a low cost producer that's why I struggle to see 49p share price.

Bit of a bargain

I'm sure more information will be forthcoming very soon. Best to reserve judgement til we've heard more from AC.

You've got a lot to live up to then!

...where is it! Expecting it to pop up late pm. Either way I'm sure it's coming.

I'd go as far as to say he sounded despondent. It's been a poor few months. Some clarity of issues with decline rates. The market seems to have priced this in hence little pressure on today's share price. Gas price variability was interesting. It's not end of the world. One to keep in the bottom draw. A normalisation of prices and election done and dusted might see us recover to 6-7p.

Disappointing. I've also re-read May's announcement. Clearly work overs haven't had the intended consequence. Can't help but feel Spring forward guidance bopd is pie in the sky. Perhaps post election uplift once froth has settled. President and PL will weather the storm. Expect them to sell American assets soon

Thanks Rift. Always tend to contact IR and preferably management. Nothing....I figure if I'm putting many Ks into company I'd like to speak to someone. Crazy this is worth less than cash. I'll continue to buy as not many investment with this margin of safety.

...I think the train is leaving the station..

Has anyone had a response from this company?

Go on! I purposefully didn't due to abuse I got from my valuation.

GTE
Reasons best strategic fit
26p (love more)

...no hate please

A bit of fun. Lots of views on the final offer.

So you have one guess who will buy us and why?

For me GTE - best strategic fit for them

I'm starting to loose patience. Not farm in deal as these can take year or so but Morocco. It's 9 months now. We've seen no visible progress. How about our new employees in BoD. We could do with a shareholder letter.

I wouldn't be disappointed. He's a paid hack who has consistently pumped stocks many have been disasters. Remember he never invests in companies he covers...how reassuring. No doubt that current events are challenging but would present an opportunity to perhaps acquire assets on the cheap and focus on the gas side. Conserve cash. Forget buyback it's not going to happen. If u look at selling it's relatively small. I'd be more worried if some institutional investors sold up. Despite the geopolitics I like the business and will hold for many years.

I used to have some dialogue with the company. I know that a number of years they have been keen to diversify. I remember talking to Guy S about this and what PMG could do for small PIs like me to improve relationships. It's radio silence now. Shame.

Invested for a couple of years. Average 7.5p or thereabouts. When I'm talking about being LTH is that I'll sit on this share for 5 years or more from now. Time will tell.

If you are a truely LTH (multi-years) then its good opportunity to top up. As a fundamental business PPC is much transformed from a few years ago. Strategically adding gas production was prescient this year. I've seen the posts which IMO have been harsh. See beyond the news of this 90 day ruling. There has been some selling but not huge. If, as looks likely Peronists will be in power there will be some meddling in business, workers rights and perhaps price controls. I dont think they will re-nationalise everything. The IMF bailout will be renegotiated and new incumbent will sooth out business uncertainty. Perhaps there will be some opportunities for acquisition by PPC as bigger companies take a risk off approach. I'm buying another Arg stocks - Central Puerto CEPU trading on NYSE Ive started buying it has PE 4.1 and Price book of only 0.58. Sure its volatile at the moment but IMO solid business like PPC that are more likely to deliver a multi year return x3-5 than zero as part of a diversified portfolio.

Hi Bays. Interested in your thoughts. Strategically GTE would be very interested. They do have undrawn 300m facility perhaps a cash and shares offer. I wondered whether they were one of the other interested parties to farm in but OXY got the nod. GTE share price has taken a pummelling, as others have stated although there has been some insider buying this year. Either way lets see how it plays out.

Sadly I think you are more accurate. Opportunistic bid as I suspected. Let's hope for a bidding war and you never know >30p but 24-25p is where it might get done. Time will tell and we let this play out.

If you're right I'd take u all down the pub for a beer and LC can have seconds!