Member Info for CityTTrader

Not HL but Lloyds

I've just been able to buy at 124.85p

nm

Been NT for an hour now.

40 minutes and still NT

Still NT. That's half an hour.

Its clear the MMs want your shares but don't want to sell them to you.

Back to NT so its about to fly.

This is going places.

Interesting that we thought last week the MMs had a large buyer at 115p.Are these 'sells' really a buy from Friday?

Hi SK, No Nick wasn't an MM. He was buying in HK then selling in Singapore or vice vesa if the exchange rate was favourable. I believe it was a tiny profit on each trade and it had to be done quickly because the difference would vanish. It was guaranteed profit.

Hi SK, They should be the same price. However in practice our sneaky MMs adjust the price to whatever they like the next day! So we should open at about 125p tmorrow eh? If you remember Nick Leeson though? He was supposed to be in arbitrage whre any such differences could be exploited I think it was prices between HK and Singapore. All very safe until it all went wrong.

Hi SK, I'm not expecting it to happen this year. Growth in the SP often takes time as news comes in. I do though think we could achieve those prices next year. We are starting from a very low base which should never have happened but it is what it is. I can see £5 by the end of this year though.

Did someone say recently that GC had paid over £3 for shares?

Okay choose your figure.
Whichever you choose it still means TILS is massively undervalued just now.
£2.8bn= £16.47
£2bn = £11.76
£1bn = £ 5.88

150p by Friday I say.

7 months ago Exact Sciences paid $2.8bn for a similar but inferior product. Part of that price was because tehre was already a sales and marketing support network in place for the product. STEM does not have this and so a discount could be expected for this. Except that if the buyer is a major then they will already have such a network. I'm going to stick with a sale of about £2.8bn giving a slight premium because its a 40% superior product. TILS has aout 170m shares in circulation which should mean a similar figure for STEM. This gives a valuation of £16.47 per share for STEM.

The StemPrinter news that it was a 40-50% improvement on the current market leader kind of came out of nowhere. Nobody had really taken much notice of this product before then. STEM though can be valued pretty accurately because 6 months ago Exact Sciences paid £2.8bn for a similar but inferior product. if STEM is 160m shares then each share would be valued at £17.50 maybe more but not really less.
So we can place a current value on TILS of between £20-30 £20 without any COVID19 treatment £30 with.

Agreed a major pharma already has a sales and distribution network and can quickly ramp up production etc. I can see this beig worth at least a billion to any major in its current form.

A 30 percent bid margin would be worth a lot more at £4 than the current pound plus.