Member Info for CityOfDelight

The lithium price alone could swing the SP by huge amounts. If lithium price is higher, SP price will likely be higher as well, and dilution will be insignificant. Where the lithium price is now, it is not unlikely investors still fear margins could end up low or underwater. Whether this fear is rational or not I don't know. I still don't have any real answer for why this project is priced as if it's going to fail, but this is not the only lithium stock trading at a huge discount to potential future cash flows.

There is a lot more support than opposition for this project. As long as they have their paperwork in order I do see it getting approved sooner rather than later.

Also, the EU actually fully committing to their own resource independence strategy is far from guaranteed. The EU has been wishy washy in the past with their commitments.

At any rate, posts which claim that there is no risk can mislead retail investors, and really don't belong on this forum.

I agree with all of that except the done part.

No it is not yet done and dusted and there are still plenty of things that can go wrong. Some of it depends on management and some depends on luck.

I am optimistic but not naive.

Management still has plenty of time to screw up.

One of the risks I have not seen mentioned yet here is the potential for a badly negotiated offtake agreement. I hope they negotiate well, but they have yet to prove it.

I don't see the urgency.

And yes, EMH is down by 11% today on ASX but so what? Many mining stock of both lithium and other commodities have been hit hard today.

It's almost always better and cheaper if these things can be resolved in a way that all parties are happy.

@Jemesa on what basis do you think there would be an annoucent this week? Is this just a guess or do you have an actual reason to think so?

I wonder what happens after we break 20p

The EU / Czech government seem to have a much bigger sense of urgency than EMH management. I think the EIA will be approved much faster than 6 months

It's because of key factors like this, that I prefer more capital raises, if needed, rather than a buyout, even at a premium. I'm sure I can find other cheap strategic projects to deploy my money if needed, but I would rather not lose this asset.

SP largely holding above the annouced CR price does show the market has not lost confidence, at least for now

I'm also happy the CR wasn't at a steeper discount to the last traded price

I like to be contrarian. What I like about capital raises is they give you a better idea how much institutional investors are willing to pay for a stock and/or how confident they are in the stock. And if the SP drops significantly below the CR price it can sometimes make for a great buying oppurtunity.

And I also got right that the DFS would be delayed to the 2nd half of December but still released before the end of the year, as well as the EIA

And if you read through my chat history you can see that I have predicted a CR multiple times

Skelly, is it BS that you have made multiple wrong predictions within the last 2 months alone?

Skelly, you can laugh as much as you want, but you've been proven wrong more times than you've been proven right.

Even then, couldn't CEZ do this without Geomet?

The Cinovec mine is being designed to process zinnwaldite. I'm not sure how much that would be relevant for processing imported ore.

The reality is you can't win an argument against someone who keeps moving the goalpost.

Skelly's latest disproven claims:

1. DFS won't be submitted in December - disproven

2. EIA won't be submitted in December - disproven

3. Project won't be profitable because opex is above lithium price - this remains to be seen, but for now the lithium price forecast is looking promising

As for the cost blowouts in capex and opex, those same inflationary pressures are also likely (though not guaranteed) to put upwards pressure on the lithium price as they have already done with many commodities, and that's before potential lithium supply shortages.

But really, PFS will always look more profitable than the DFS, because of how the numbers are presented. No one thought capex was actually going to be only 500m for the expanded project.

Skelly will only be right if lithium falls back into/below the low 10k price range, and stays there.

I'm not concerned about the share price at all. As long as they don't do a CR anytime soon, cheap shares just means I can buy more for cheaper.