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I'm more curious where the lithium price is headed, because I don't think the current rise is anywhere close to over yet. Lithium is actually pretty cheap after accounting for the huge amount of inflation and money printing over the last few years.

Saying there has been register is tight and there has been very little dilution questionable, considering literally half the project was sold off to CEZ, which means the effective market cap and share register is really double. Now I'm not saying that's a bad thing, it could end up being very beneficial and perhaps we wouldn't have gotten the grants without CEZ.

On top of that some of that, a number of these other companies have other projects or assets besides their main project, in some case significant ones. EMH does not.

So the number of shares on the register aren't directly comparable.

At the end of the day small shareholders like us do not control if/when dilution happens, nor do we have the power to prevent a takeover at a bad price.

Some things we do have going for us is that management have large personal investments in the company, and are not being paid milions a year in cash and options like many other pre-production mining companies.

@Jemesa you can see today's volume here https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EMH.L/

What I would like to see in the coming months is some revisions to the DFS, with some possible ways to reduce capital and/or operating costs

@Whompywheels just remember if you are overweight on a stock with low liquidity you may not be able to sell when you want to. But if you're in it for the long run, it is looking more compelling by the day.

Is it better to back the project that has already "faced the music" or the one still selling the vision? Both share the same deposit, but Cinovec is already post-DFS, meaning its numbers have been hardened for bankability with much more conservative assumptions on costs and mine life. Meanwhile, Zinnwald is still at the PFS stage, which allows for more optimistic projections that haven't yet faced that final engineering reality check. Does the de-risked nature of a DFS and state backing make the Czech side the smarter play, or is there more upside in the German side's preliminary projections before they inevitably get a "haircut" in their own final study?

I don't know what our floor price for offtakes is, but you would need the other party to agree as well. It's a negotiation process, not take it or leave it.

They really had to leave it for the last day. I'm almost surprised they didn't somehow forget.

On the other hand EMH has its own problem of the grants it has received not being fully acknowleged by the market. I don't have an opinion on which one is better value.

EUR does not only have Wolfsberg project. European Lithium also holds 10s of millions of shares in CRML - currently valued higher than EUR's own market cap, which actually makes things very interesting, because they can sell CRML shares to fund the Wolfsberg project. In fact a big reason for their recent rise was because they sold a bunch of stock, but they still a huge stake.

The fact AI act completely ignorant of this shows why you should not rely on AI alone for investment advice.

DYOR.

Lithium price is still in the discovery phase, so I expect continued volatility for a number of years, including potentially multiple boom and bust cycles. No idea where it will end up, but almost certainly will end up higher than the cost of production from hard rock sources, as supply from other sources will not be sufficient to keep up with the demand.

China has been cracking down hard on fraudalent and misclassified mines. It's also in China's interest that lithium prices go up, and they don't overmine. True that China will sometimes overproduce just to drive competitors out of business, but that's more of a short term thing.

While I would never advocate for it, if EMH added lithium to its name, it would probably re-rate overnight

While I don't like the delays, if it leads to better financing and better profits, the wait can definitely be worth it.

Not all solid state batteries will be lithium based, but many will, and the technology is still advancing. I don't see lithium losing its importance even if there are alternatives, which will in many cases be less efficient.

Sorry, never mind, I see where where you got it from.

But if we're adding in inferred resources as the original DFS did, you could add in a lot more than 4 years worth.

@LuckyLaurie Where did you get the figure US$1.7bn NPV from?

I'll be honest. I'm not fully convinced they didn't just choose a lithium price that would give a reasonable NPV, but even if they did, most lithium forecasts do predict a shortage and price increase in coming years.

Both for those who know and those who don't, Cinovec has enough lithium (and other valubale resources) to mine for at least 100 years for both resource security and generational wealth

The one thing I do agree with @Skelly85 on is that the DFS which was released is not complete, and there likely are various ways to reduce capex and opex to significantly improve the economics