Member Info for Citizenlane

Reports I hear from a few reliable sources suggest that the Oxford uni vaccine candidate is extremely promising in initial trials, but they are being hindered in proving efficacy by a lack of Covid infection in the wider population as the R-rate falls. Hard to imagine that a challenger study will not be a priority to accelerate it through the phases of testing, and no company to my knowledge has the capacity that OO has in that vital work. Hard to put a price on that capability either from a human or economic perspective at the current time - and of course AZN have very deep pockets, dyor

Cathal Friel has too long a history in M&A not to have a a sale price in mind for the company he is building. As the challenger study models and virology data business start to show their worth no doubt a few deep-pocketed pharma companies will see the competitive value in having Orphan's unique range of expertise for themselves. What might that be worth in the current climate? I have a hunch that CF would find a £250m MCAP valuation about right by year end if all goes to plan, given his original investment - the wild card remains Imutex, it will be interesting to see the Lancet announcement of the phase one mosquito/malaria vaccine, which has been the holy grail for world health. dyor

In the Covid briefing govt chief scientific advisor, mentioned two tests that are now available. Grant Shapps confirms that there will be no exclusive deal with Roche, but they will use all the tests they can.

He actually answered the question about the second broker in great detail, explaining he had historically always preferred to have two - I checked and that's correct - and that FinnCap has greater life sciences pedigree, useful when they come to launching Immuset on Nasdaq.

He also addressed the question of fund raising in detail, saying it would only be for acquisitions - none currently planned - and that PIs would be involved if that were the case.

He also said the clinic would be up and running for testing in a week or two, and that the first Mosaiq machine was being installed today.

Rather than musing maybe you should simply listen to the interview?

and also that revenue itself can easily be boosted 2x or3x from last year simply by utilising capacity at the labs and clinic - a near certainty given the Covid boost - from a lower cost base - not to mention the spin off which may well offer another 2x depending on valuation

On a very basic level, if you asked a hundred people across the world what service does humanity currently require, more than half would say an ability to fast track an effective Covid vaccine; the rest might suggest a reliable antibody test. Is there any micro-cap company available to meet both those needs? Let me think. There is no way on earth that expertise is not worth several multiples of the current mcap. But obv dyor

At what scale are they planning the antibody test?

Yes thanks for the early nudge, North Sea... when you research this it is hard to see how it can’t grow exponentially in the current situation. Virology and the epidemiology of infectious diseases have been woefully neglected by big pharma who have long concentrated on the guaranteed margins on drugs for degenerative illness. That is about to change big time. And Friel is a born deal maker it seems. I was sold on the fact that the takeover of hvivo was the quickest of the year - and the knowledge that the WHO reported huge growth in epidemic events in the last decade. Scarily there is plenty of scope

Cathal Friel insists he is thinking of the Covid opportunities as a bonus on the core business here - not to mention the stage III flu vaccine and the possibilities for the malaria jab - but he is more than savvy enough to realise this is a once in a lifetime opportunity - grim as the virus is. Orph can become a small but key player in the antidotes and vaccines that the whole world wants more than gold just now. Friel has been waiting a while for this opportunity, with his large stake in the company and totally hands on approach he will know not to blow it. Sometimes the planets align. Dyor

also, flu-v could be the kind of innovation that governments are suddenly very interested in seeing through phase III. Public health planning, often neglected, will not be so neglected again.

What’s the pharma stock?

put it this way: they can sell every bottle of Carex they make probably 10 times over.

Time frame looks about perfect here. Ganfeng now have a window to optimise production. The world has a window to shift gears into EV production. One knock on effect of the pandemic will be to focus minds on clean air and environmental protections imho

Mondo it says very clearly in the website that no new slots are available - though I had a note yesterday saying they are now releasing slots in a daily basis. The queue is plainly for people to edit and add to slots they already have

Ocado's website is working

I would guess because people are interpreting volume of traffic as inefficiency. The opposite is true, and the bottom line will quickly start to show that imho. The SP will then start to reflect that also. The govt has told 60 million people to shop online for three or six months. Ocado is the most visible and trusted of brands doing that, with twenty years of deep understanding of how to deliver 95% fulfilment. There is no way they are not going to be a cornerstone in this horrible national tragedy. DYOR

Mondo, do you have any idea of the volume of food they are distributing? Every single slot to every single destination, as far as I can see, and I've tried several is filled, for the next three weeks. Each individual order is no doubt 3x greater than normal. Your difficulties in logging on represent a mind-boggling volume of efficiently handled trade. The bottom line of this company - not least through its ability to sell deep logistics know-how - will emerge from the 4/6/9/12 months of this crisis transformed imho.

A quick website trawl of stockists Superdrug etc suggests Carex supply is very much back on track, though some places are rationing.

except they have ramped up production of course. demand is running at 100 times normal. Carex is being sold as soon as it has any shelf or website.

It is not suspending deliveries nomlungu, it is temporarily suspending its website and app for a short time in order to cope with existing deliveries which reflect vastly unprecedented demand and which stretch into the coming weeks. Accurate fulfilment is Ocado's key metric and it clearly does not want to jeopardise that. No doubt the site will be back up and running long before the current order schedule is fulfilled and there will be no break in deliveries.