Member Info for Citizenlane

you lost me at "keep it real" mate :)

Thanks Jimmy for the view from RRE

as I say, research into what new facts? Just one will do. In your own time.

tell me one fact that has changed in the last three days.

BUTD, could I remind you that you yourself posted the exact opposite three days ago:

"the administrators now appear confident that they will get their money back so presumably they know if other deals are likely... things looking brighter for IOG shareholders than they were a week ago...looks like the administrators are confident about getting their money back from IOG. the sp likely to start moving up"

can you explain exactly what has changed since then? atb

BUTD, could I remind you that posted the exact opposite three days ago:

"the administrators now appear confident that they will get their money back so presumably they know if other deals are likely... things looking brighter for IOG shareholders than they were a week ago...looks like the administrators are confident about getting their money back from IOG. the sp likely to start moving up"

can you explain exactly what has changed since then? atb

As you know, Tom, it's somewhat disingenuous to suggest that the bod was in error in borrowing from LOG; plenty of smaller companies borrow from a single lender. Your tedious and transparent drip-feed of the flybe example has little relevance here either. In my view the real risk-reward profile of IOG hasn't changed greatly since last autumn when it was at 34p. Signigficant funding was always required to develop the smartly orchestrated cluster of compelling assets. That funding was never going to come from LOG. The only difference now is a slightly greater urgency - though even that disputable: the first tranche of repayment to LOG was always a cut-off point for alternative funding and farm out. You may want to create an atmosphere of desperation around the company, but the assets and the board ( and the directly expressed confidence of the administrator) tell a completely different story. atb

Or see this from 4 Jan RNS which sets it out even more clearly:

Under the total of £38.55m loan facility agreements signed between IOG and LOG between December 2015 and September 2018 (the "LOG Facilities"), sums owed by IOG to LOG are only repayable within 36 months of their drawdown and there is no mechanism under which LOG can demand early repayment save in an event of default by the Company. The Company has to date drawn a total of £30.7m under the LOG Facilities of which £0.7m is held in cash and £3.05m is due to be repaid in the next six months. The Company currently has further availability under the LOG Facilities of £7.85m. LOG has today re-confirmed to IOG that all sums agreed to be lent to IOG remain available to the Company and LOG has not received any call on any of its funds from LCF.

sorry soberman spell check wants to make you a canine ... I don't remember referring to a broker rating in that context, but I guess I may have once had a rush of blood. I know you RRE enthusiasts want to see this as some kind of endgame, but I think that's extremely premature. The board here have serious experience. Time will tell, but I personally think a few too many have been eager to swallowed the scare stories. If I had ready funds I would be buying more - though like all of us I've been wrong plenty of times before atb

I'm not sad doberman! My average is at 9p. But I believe SP will move up form this point over the next few weeks, the RRE statement suggested they have a real strategic need for some assets to develop so I doubt that will be their last offer. Others, I agree with GG about Ineos, may well have thoughts of their own. And the farm out still a likelihood. LOG was never going to be the funder going forward in my view, circs now suggest that their departure will be brought forward. atb

I agree, grim for the poor bondholders, but the two steps removed relationship with LCF does not diminish the assets here. What it does do is add some urgency either to the BOD delivering its farm out solution and proceeding rapidly to first gas, or an eventual sale of this business. The interests of the shareholders are clearly fully aligned with any perceived influence from the LCF administrator: to achieve the very best return on these assets. I would expect both news off farm out options and of other interested parties to be weighing bids at a higher level that RRE to test the board's resolve. It may be that Harvey results will prove a deciding factor in the ultimate deal imo, so perhaps a while to wait. gla

What’s that supposed to mean Tom?

You are ignoring the fact that IOG has no reason to sell

You seriously think you can judge the market of an AIM share on half a days’s trading? A few thousand either way shifts this share by percentage points. The price is 75 per cent up on the contrived fall of a couple of weeks ago which was driven on negligible volume. Let’s see how the next few weeks unfold before we start to talk about the market. Having watched this share closely for several years, I would argue there is only 10-15 per cent liquidity in the shares. Start trying to buy any of the rest and watch the price fly. LTHs know what this is worth - and it ain’t 23p! ATB

As you know Tom, there is zero evidence to suggest that IOG are under any pressure to sell from any administrator. You can go in search of that entry price again but I think you may find events have conspired against you. The derisory RRE offer may prove the starting gun for the eventual sale of IOG but It’s plainly absurd to suggest that will be at anything close to this level. As LTHs have witnessed for the last four years or so these shares are tightly held by those with an understanding of the assets, and some justified faith in the consummately experienced board. Let’s see what the next few weeks bring.atb

what is about 2019 that makes everyone believe they are an instant expert? BRB1 does, what, 2 minutes googling and shazam: he arrives at fair value. Shameless.

"we" ?

lol

Trump, my friend, you seem well named. Is it too much to ask that you do just a bit of research before you pitch up shouting the odds and revealing your ignorance of this company? Most of the shares are tightly held by BOD and a couple of institutional investors. The company is not distressed as you describe it, but quite calmly and efficiently pursuing a transparent strategy. No one in their right mind is going to sell at anywhere near the price offered, but if they were to sell at any point I would imagine Andrew Hockey would be thinking first of his previous successful deal with INEOS at Clipper South. DYOFR

I agree. Given the assets I would imagine there will be plenty of other interest. Would imagine a floor close to 50p, pricing in the uncertainty around LOG and then some serious action above that price. Have to remember that that BOD owns c 30 per cent of shares at more than 25p and the other big Swiss investor bought at around 30p. They will be looking to at least double their returns I would assume, but will have figures in mind in excess of that. It's a very low-ball opener.