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pretty much in a row here now it seems to me. The macro for Lithium could hardly be better and a very clear path to delivery of Sonora with the Ganfeng partnership. Sooner or later the market will wake up to this - perhaps at the time of formal sign-off. BCN was at 3x market cap when unfunded and risk heavy. When finally de-risked, as seems very likely in the coming weeks, it will once again look like the prospect it always did. dyor

except if you look at ganfeng's recent history they obviously work almost entirely in partnership arrangements like this one.

with the Canadian Lithium Americas in Argentina for example, in a deal quite similar to Sonora: https://www.bestmag.co.uk/content/china’s-ganfeng-lithium-splashes-cash-argentina-partnership

Give it half a glance and their MO seems entirely based on stakeholding and partnership in fact, despite your narrow stereotypes of Chinese business

Agreement by Ganfeng will not take ‘months’. It will be done in six weeks, the statutory period for Chinese FDI.
This is not a question of due diligence, but of standard procedure. Ganfeng are already describing Bacanora as a ‘cornerstone’ of their lithium production, to fulfil contracts with VW, Tesla and others. I’m not sure how you derive your £150m shortfall, but that is not my reading of the figures, or the company’s. It seems bizarre to suggest that Ganfeng buying at 25p should be the benchmark for other buyers. They are not going to sell their holding. They are also offering world class expertise, a full order book for the next decades, and the capital that will guarantee that what was an uncertain project will go ahead. The market has taken a little while to process this, but it won’t be long - perhaps it will take the publicity of Zinnwald - before it does. The market cap does not begin to reflect value. Over the summer, that fact will change in my view. But of course do your own research.

Are pretty formidable, as this suggests: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-04-05/china-moves-closer-to-battery-domination-with-vw-lithium-deal

VW are investing $6bn in EVs as we know, a lot of that cash will be heading Ganfeng’s - and now BCN’s - way. There are long term deals with Tesla and BMW too. These are clearly major league players. Sonora’s cost efficiencies make it a “cornerstone” of that supply in the Ganfang dep CEOs words. This may well prove to be a deal for the ages.

It's not giving it away though, is it - as has been pointed out - Ganfeng would be footing half of the set-up costs; they are not some half-baked financing house- they sell to Tesla and VW and no doubt see Mexico as a a nice fit with that - as does anyone who has bought in here over the years. The stuff is no use in the ground, financing has to be accessed. Now BCN has a clear pathway ahead, which yesterday it did not have. Zinn still to come remember. dyor

It is worth remembering that in that Reuters interview with the CEO of Southern Copper he mentioned that the Mexican project SC was looking at seemed likely to bought by the Chinese. At the time that did not seem to square with Hanwa etc, but now of course with Gafeng it does. I wonder if other potential investors, like SC, are eyeing this proposal and wondering if they can do better - and dent Chinese efforts to corner the lithium market. I sense that this proposal - a good one in my view - is a stake in the ground to see who else is serious. Let the bidding commence... dyor

obviously hoovered up the new issue of 3p shares on the 18th by prior arrangement, which is certainly a positive statement of intent on their part, and a vote of confidence in the current strategy. I hesitate to predict a climb in SP but if there is positive news at the AGM AFC are certainly well placed to catch some publicity for it. More broadly, I think a tipping point around the green economy has ben reached in the last few months, and oil and gas conglomerates will be scrabbling for assets and revolutionary tech to keep their shareholders happy. AFC could and should be well placed to benefit from such an environment imho.

Secure and viable for what still promises to be a critical year in the life of this technology...

Bloomberg on lithium dominance: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-04-03/battery-reality-there-s-nothing-better-than-lithium-ion-coming-soon

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-merkel-autos-idUSKCN1RE0SR

I don't think anyone suggested that Harvey was critical to IOG's viability workover. I was among those who pointed out that the board would have a clearer hand to deal with once the harvey appraisal was complete; and that perhaps provided some rationale for their buying time before confirming funding arrangements. It's true (as you exclaim) that some of these assets have waited a long time to be developed - that is the key element of the hub strategy of collecting a group of previously stranded but potentially highly profitable fields. Good luck with your other investments.

Alligator all of that seems true on the face of it, but there remains the question of the administrator who had clear sight of the RRE offer and felt able to simply dismiss it out of hand along with the board. I just don't see how they could do that - given the high profile newsworthiness of the LCF situation - without some clear funding proposals or alternative JV. I agree there are question s to answer on 23rd, but still have a sense that there must be more going on than currently meets the eye, dyor

From the administrators' point of view I don't see how they actually could be progressing without a clear FID plan; the RRE offers weren't just rejected twice, that apparently happened without even a meeting between RRE and the administrator. Seems next to impossible that could occur without a clear set of steps to finance and production. I think the placing is all about Harvey. The Harvey appraisal could not happen before the payment to LOG fell due, so the BoD has bought itself some time to put it in a stronger deal-making position post-appraisal. Can't see any other reason that the RRE bid could be dismissed out of hand with headlines around LCF. Time will tell. dyor

I think they are basing their strategy on a revaluation post-Harvey appraisal. That the administrator is onside with that is extremely encouraging, and still suggests that those JV and farm-out proposals are an observable reality. The short-term dip is frustrating, but continued independence until after the drill is clearly the imperative. Time frames have changed, assets have not. dyor

on Today programme just stated that Administrators had informed the mini-bond holders in LCF that they would not see any money returned to them "for at least two years". Given that, as far as I know, the only potential source of recovered funds is IOG, that sounds like an indication of the time frame to which they have agreed and are working. DYOR

Jimmy you need to ask yourself why the LCF administrators are refusing even to meet with RRE. It would, as you say, likely be criminal negligence for them to not to talk about the £40m on offer for the debt. The only explanation can be that they have far better financing offers in progress front of them. The next few days will tell, but the contrived note of desperation in RRE's complaint clearly suggests that they know that too. gla

ravenous, exactly. And, consequently, there can be no other explanation for the administrators refusal to meet them to pocket the £40m for the bondholders than a genuine certainty that (much) better is on offer. We'lll see pretty soon.

the administrators' refusal to engage would indicate the latter. Can't see any other explanation for it. But I don't think they would risk that outcome without proper certainty that an alternative financing package is available in the very near term. It is clear from RRE's note that they have been banging this drum for a while. The administrators' first duty is obviously to LCF bondholders; they could not jeopardise that £40m unless they knew exactly what was around the corner for IOG imho. The next few days will be v interesting.

Again, the unwillingness to engage on the part of the administrators clearly reveals that there are alternatives to RRE's hostile manoeuvrings. RRE have a week to come up with a bid. I would expect other financing packages to emerge in the short term. There is, as their note of desperation reveals, obviously far more going on behind the scenes than meets RRE's eyes. DYOR

Would they continue to sell BCN just now? Beggars belief.