Member Info for Citizenlane

no way have we known this for sure - the ethics of it have been widely and vigorously debated, it was never nailed on, but it is now

Not seismic - just announcing a unique new front in the battle agains the biggest threat the world's health and economy has faced in the last decade, to be funded by the govt. Give your head a wobble.

just wait my friend, this will be leading the Covid news all around the world

The go-ahead for challenge trials is huge imho - no other company in the world has OO’s depth of experience and expertise. The jan trial will be the first of many. It was anticipated, but certainly not priced in. The world, and it’s investors, will be watching

As with any share that hovers round the same price awaiting news there is a danger of overthinking this and forgetting the basic proposition: we are about to enter the potentially more catastrophic second phase of a pandemic that has cost hundreds of thousands of lives and many billions of dollars. A company such as this one, which possesses some potentially unique contributions to alleviating that crisis, and future similar ones, will not be a poor investment at these prices. Wait a month or two, and see.

Thing is, Open Orphan remains a world-leading virology company in the midst of a unprecedented global virus pandemic. There is no way, given the current management, that this will not prove a valuable fact. Challenge trial approval is the game-changer for me, and given the state of things it is impossible to imagine that it is far off. (Oh, and immutex, wearables). Bit more flesh on the bones likely this evening. Still cheap as chips imho

Challenge studies are not part of Phase 1 trials , which are to test basic safety and tolerability. But they will no doubt become critical to prove efficacy and response as this race accelerates.

toward the end of the interview CF appears entirely confident that Covid vaccine challenge studies will be underway before Christmas, no ifs or buts. That is very significant news.

The clear read from these recent contracts is: there is one company that major pharma rely on for challenge studies. Once the covid challenge protocol is ready and approved, who they gonna call?

It is clear, for me, that as the full economic effects of the pandemic become apparent, and another budget-wrecking second wave looms, that there will be an ever greater clamour to accelerate vaccine trials. Human challenge studies, given the age/risk profile of the disease, are fast becoming a no-brainer, and the multi-billion dollar race to find a vaccine from so many quarters will mean, imho, that OO can almost name a price to conduct them. No other company, in the world, is better placed to provide that service. Hard to imagine that the contracts will not start to come thick and fast as the autumn progresses. dyor

I don't imagine they are keeping subjects in bed for five months! - the trials will take a week or two, data analysis comes later

News like that at synairgen unsettles conviction in other shares. Two things should be remembered: there was a good deal of waiting and uncertainty at SNG before that rise; if you base investment choices on predicting 5x excitement 99 per cent of the time you will be constantly disappointed. The fundamentals here are undeniably strong - Friel bought the businesses at rock bottom prices and has created obvious synergies; COVID has sharpened appetite and focus. A significant re-rate by the end of the year is ‘overnight’ in most sensible minds. The markets for HVivo and Venn are clear, but deals take time particularly where regulations are concerned. I think we will hear very soon the approval of covid challenge studies - inevitable imho given the risk profile and the likelihood of second spikes. That will be the catalyst here for me. Imutex meanwhile could capture headlines at any point for different reasons. You can’t engineer sentiment, only wait for the jigsaw to take shape. Could be five days, could be five weeks, could be five months, but at these prices there is only upside imho

far from swerving challenge trials, the most advanced vaccines, such as the Oxford candidate, are specifically advocating them: see here: https://theprint.in/health/what-are-human-challenge-trials-the-experiment-oxford-is-considering-for-its-covid-vaccine/463296/

As far as I know, one company has the stand-out track record and expertise to be trusted to deliver these trials

No doubt the UK govt will be doing all it can to approve challenge trials in an effort to redeem its response to the crisis thus far and put a British stamp on the vaccine. Only one company with the experience abd track record to run these trials. No doubt Adrian Wildfire has left his lucrative Swiss billet to make this happen - the three month deadline in purchasing CHIMagents will fit nicely with a big payday for him and his team when (if) the first trials start. And there will be plenty imho, each with big media attention. All pretty extraordinary for an £80m company with multiple other revenue streams and a stage IIb flu vaccine and a holy grail malaria antidote in its back pocket. What will it be worth by Christmas and second waves? Dyor

When you say ‘everyone’ zebbo, you mean it was universal household knowledge? RNS s are there to inform the market, not 12 obsessives on a chat board. I have a feeling one or two new ears might prick up at the symbolism that news represents, But dyor

I think actually the first resistance from before the sell-off is closer to 16, but that is probably artificial given the change of hands of stock following the Acacia dump

got to love the fact that a man at the forefront of controlling the spread of infectious disease is called Wildfire

This is an interesting piece on CHIMagents, including this line:

"In London, infectious disease expert Adrian Wildfire — known among colleagues as the "flying virologist" for motorbiking between various pathogen projects in the city — is drawing up plans to manufacture the coronavirus. He's aiming for a Goldilocks virus — not too strong but not too weak to infect most volunteers. He would have to contract with an outside lab to make it, likely a multimillion-dollar endeavor at Biosafety Level 3, the same as rabies and bird flu."

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/why-have-14-000-people-volunteered-be-infected-coronavirus-n1203931

You don't get much more involved in the pandemic than manufacturing the virus... OO seemingly looking to corner this extraordinary market

We might remember that this was heading northwards from 16p when Acacia started to sell, no reason it will not head back there quite quickly now that they have apparently sold all their stock. Going forward, it is hard to see too many headwinds (though there are always headwinds). The great thing this business -these businesses have in their favour, apart from cash in the bank, and a global pandemic that fuels and highlights all of the unique services that OO offers, is the bargain basement prices that the companies were purchased for. 2019 was a very different place to 2020. Just occasionally the planets align. DYOR

For all those who believe Covid will pass as a clear and present danger, read this. Virology will likely be the biggest growth industry for months and years to come https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/12/immunity-to-covid-19-could-be-lost-in-months-uk-study-suggests