Member Info for ChrisToffer

And what is NCYTs share price today?

That's actually irrelevant if it becomes apparent that a takeover is coming.

2 ways that can happen. The company would recieve an outright offer in line with its sector peers ( ev/EBIDTA ratios being 10-20x minimum) or an offerer buys the shares on open market. Dyou really think the SP around £6 if TR1s keep landing?

"I'll be happy with a cash or share offer at ~£6"

£6(£420m) for a company delivering £20-40m EBIDTA and has £100m+ in cash. Give your head a wobble.

Thanks Sword, its a bit difficult for me to understand the accounts due to the language but I also believe the €130m+ cash balance thats been mentioned a few times is inclusive of the loan facility.

Again, I'm happy to be proven wrong here but It otherwise doesn't add up to me.

"They then announced that their revenue in 2021 was even higher than 2020 at a whopping €382m. They will announce full results in March where we'll see just how much cash they have access to. I'm guessing despite the previous acquisitions they will have min €170m+ in cash and then have access to the €109m financing facility"

This doesn't add up as their net profits are only around 20%. They actually could be less so cash conversion is less again.

Happy to be proven wrong on this but I haven't seen anything in their accounts to suggest higher cash conversion.

This scenario also assumes that the directors named in the recent LTIP are willing to give up millions by proposing the acceptance of an offer less than £7.77.

Hi Steve, you're correct that the cash position reduces the enterprise value however biosynex would need to have the capital in the first place.

Unless there is another backer, or more finance involved, they simply don't.

Thanks Ad4! I had forgotten about the C.Domicile tweets. I guess it could fit alright.

Completely agree Urraca. At the very least its a huge vote of confidence amd a massive reassurance to long sufferer holders.

Going to court would not change the total amount of revs that are in dispute. £129m. Nor would it change the amount of payment that the DHSC have withheld. Which by the way, was for product thats actually been used.

Anyway we've been around the buoy on this already. I think its more likely we would see a resolution before any M&A from the company however the cash is there regardless of dispute. Its all laid out in the RNS' and accounts.

Not necessarily. Although it may be prudent, to ensure a successful outcome on the DHSC case, to not go flashing the cash, they will know exactly what the cash position would be in the worst case scenario.

Theyve told us via RNS that the dispute is for revenue up to £129m. Theyve also told us in the accounts that there are outstanding invoices of £40.8 (excl VAT) from 2021 and £24m from 2020.

Even if they have to refund the full £129m in revs thatll be offset by the money that is owed (129m - 40.8m - 24 = £65m at risk to the cash position). That leaves over £40m of the cash pile that is not affected by dispute, regardless of outcome (its likely to be much more btw).

No I wouldnt and i don't think NCYT would be interested in taking large positions in companies. However 37% @ $10,500 valued Procisedx at $28.4m.

NCYT could buy that company for less than $40m (30% markup on the mid 2021 valuation is $36m). It would tick a few boxes in my mind.

Not sure gastroenterology is the direction DA wants to go however would like to hear if anyone has any views on their instrument.

"ProciseDx has obtained CE Mark on its instrument and on four gastroenterology (GI) assays which were launched in Q3 2020. Already over 100 instruments have been shipped to EMEA and further growth is expected in the second half of 2021. The company expects revenues of between $2 million and $3 million for 2021."

Thats not nothing. Infact, I would argue its exactly the profile of company NCYT would look to aquire. If they believe the instrument has the potential then NCYTs existing sales network can quickly turn $2/3m in sales into much more.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/procisedx-announces-13-million-convertible-note-financing-and-strong-international-growth-301331850.html

Thank you Sword,

I think its fair to say that Albio do not have the financial clout to takeover NCYT. Additionally, NCYTs balance sheet, profitability and IP are all more lucrative. So what do they know?

Could NCYT be looking at Procisedx? 37% owned by Biosynex and 37% owned by Nestle. American based, they have an instrument that may compliment NCYTs offering and with annual revs of $3/4m could be affordable.

Thanks everyone,

From the 2020 accounts that B2 shared (translated); After deducting the financial result of -€0.3m, the exceptional result of -€1.1m and a tax expense of €12.3 million, the 2020 net profit reached €31.4 million, showing a net margin of 20.4%.

That margin appears to be reducing when compared to their 2022 forecast which, if I ha e this correct, NCYT will eclipse even with 50% drop off in covid revs

Thank you B2. I found the 2021 unaudited statement that sword refers to;

Translated it says
CercleFinance.com) - Biosynex fell by 2% after the presentation by the company of an annual turnover for 2021 of 382.7 million euros, i.e. a multiplication by 2.5 compared to the previous financial year, after an increase of 338% already recorded between 2019 and 2020. The activity continued to benefit in 2021 from sales linked to Covid-19 (89% of turnover), Biosynex having established itself as the French leader in rapid diagnostic tests with its complete range of products meeting the pandemic-related needs. The company anticipates for the 2021 financial year 'sustained growth in its operating profitability indicators driven by the momentum of its sales' and anticipates 'the maintenance of strong Covid-19 activity in the first quarter of 2022

You got a link? Regardless of the amount of material in them, I'd like to have a read.

Hi Sword, have you got a link to Biosynex most recent unaudited accounts?

Its too simplistic to say they're trading at cash because of the €109m finance. That should be added to the mcap to get their EV.

Whereas NCYT cash position comes off the market cap.

Hi Exmex, just my own view but I interpreted this meant that DAs strategic review found something lacking with microgen & lab21 and that the laser focus would be on Primerdesign and IT-IS.

Regardless of their honour or integrity, which is always subjective anyway, we know their minimum expectation of value as its laid out in the LTIP.

Regardless of the public narrative on covid there is a long term market in clinical settings and novacyt now have an extremely competitive test that can service that market.

Coprep about to release and the NHS contract is up for renewal, we could be in for a good month