Member Info for Chrishar

Yeah I'm not saying every single poster on here has been wrong but the majority has.

Ignoring the £1.20 valuation pre-results which always seemed pretty ludicrous to me, perhaps £0.50 before results is about right considering the risk here?

It does worry me that posters on here seem unwilling to address this fact. Before IIs were blamed for keeping the price down and then yesterday it was suddenly PIs that had the heeby jeebies.

If this truly has the potential to reach 360p then it amazes me that there isn't more interest.

Can we please please please stop talking incessantly about an imaginary takeover!

Don't you think the fact that other companies like Yourgene are striving to produce a covid test now shows just how lucrative it can be and how much of an advantage we have? Hundreds of millions made already and key relationships established before others have even got started...

'I wouldn't want to be out of this next month'

That's one I haven't heard before!

It looks no more likely than it did before. Could be tomorrow, Wednesday, Thursday or Friday.

We're up because sentiment has shifted and we're undervalued.

One would guess that the person you are obsessed with is yourself ;)

I've gone against my better judgement and topped up again here. I don't like how resistant the share price is right now but it's hard to comprehend terrible results after Richard's interviews.

Grrrrrr!

Deas' post earlier seems to have gone unnoticed and yet I think it's an important one.
I think our government might be running out of testing kits soon...

Such a meaningless throwaway post.

June update within 72 hours if the past four months are anything to go by. No denying the upside from here is huge compared to the downside...

100000 seems like a strange amount to send, do you think this could just be part of the previous 40000 PCR test kits? Or a new ongoing order?

By the way it's good to have you, Ghia and some of the others back posting on here. It sounds silly, but with such a large amount of my portfolio devoted to novacyt now, having your research and enthusiasm calms my nerves somewhat.

No it doesn't mean that gkb47 - this has been addressed by a number of those heading up the vaccine programmes. The vaccine that is being trialled by Oxford at least is expected to initiate a much stronger immune response than contracting the virus naturally.

A workable vaccine a tricky thing to get one's head around and it's difficult to envisage what the future holds. Expediting the process is in many ways playing into the hands of the anti vaxxers. There will likely be vaccines that are initially piloted that turn out to be duds and this will ramp up the fear factor around the safety even more.

In the end if a general vaccine can be produced, it probably will be, due to the amount of money being pumped into it and the sheer number of parties involved. If not something akin to the seasonal flu jab might be the closest match.
I can't personally imagine however a time when this virus will be fully eradicated.

It's reductive to pitch it as economy vs humans. Western civilisation as we know it is built on a system that requires working to earn money to survive and to live. Many people also rely on their work or their businesses to keep their mind occupied and to maintain their mental health.

I agree that the government can't afford to shut things down a second time but I don't think it's simply a money over lives matter.

Surfie, I feel like this thread has been quickly hijacked. Of course £20 valuations are ludicrous but for the sake of the board it would help to ignore those comments rather than give them oxygen.

The point I'm making is six months into this crisis is a good chance to look at the path the share price has taken. We saw a spike mid February to not miles off this level at the mere news that we were launching our own covid test. Five months and millions of pounds later this does not feel like the risky investment it once was...

That's not the point Jinny. On February 17th the sp jumped to £1.66 on nothing more than the possibility of Sars Cov 2 developing into a pandemic and novacyt making considerable money from it. It took nearly another month before the WHO declared it as a pandemic. Since then globally it has grown and grown and novacyt's revenue has jumped from €13m a year to potentially something crazy like €500m.

Yes it took a little time after that date to breach the £2 mark but it's still pretty revealing to me...

The current share price is less than 50% higher than the spike that occurred on February 17th. On that day novacyt announced the launch of their novel coronavirus test. It was a loss making company with a revenue of circa €13m a year. The UK had 8 confirmed covid cases...

Let that sink in for a moment.

'No. I really can't. I understand how the filters work'.

The man's just too damn addicted to the conflict.

Could someone with a greater knowledge than me explain the potential connotations of the global shortage of reagents for the covid diagnostics market? I know we all like to get carried away on here but is there a genuine chance that competition shrinks somewhat because of this and that ncyt monopolises the market in some roundabout way?

I don't mean to sound so bloodthirsty and I disapprove of abusing one's market power. It's just useful to gain an understanding of how big ncyt could potentially be...

A rerate to £8 or £10? That's just not happening let's be honest. I mean it would take the most exceptional RNS you could imagine.

What we need from the next few RNS's is confirmation that a) we can sell 10 million tests a month and b) we are more than just a covid test supplier. The recent research on here over the past 24 hours gives me confidence in that regard. If we receive positive news on that front then a sharp move back up to our sp high of circa £5 is imo possible.

Beyond that sort of sp range would surely take time. We need to keep posting those figures and have sizeable contracts in place and as time goes on be given details of novacyt's plans beyond this pandemic. Maybe then the sort of figures you speak of might not be out of reach.