Member Info for Chrishar

Come on Dunk, it's pretty obvious why they did that. The company is simply far too small to be taking on both the COPD market and covid at the same time and whilst the COPD market is massive and will be lucrative in the future, time is not of the essence. With the US IIs moving in there really was no choice but to put COPD on hold.

Any share that could potentially ten bag also has risks, otherwise everyone would be invested right now waiting for their fortunes. This will probably slowly trickle down until there is good news but you've got to be in it to win it if you want the big gains.

That was meant to say September, sorry.

They crossed on the 8th August so were probably paying anywhere between 58 and 60 for their shares - if they're happy buying at 60 then so am I.

This might sound a bit ridiculous to some of you but I've been working on the theory that the government are keeping quiet about therapeutic advances to make the reveal that much more dramatic. Boris and Cummings are known for their unconventional and calculated political tactics so it's not out of the equation.

I mean, seven months into the pandemic and with community transmission already deeply embedded, they can't truly believe that testing is the best defence against this virus other than a vaccine.

It won't keep following the same pattern, that would be too easy.

There's other news that must be just down the road other than partnership/takeover, most notably the peer review...

I've got a question for the more experienced investors... if the US IIs are still increasing their stake would they be employing tactics on low volume days like today? I.e buying in smaller chunks so as to keep the share price stabilised? Or would they likely just buy what they want and keep paying higher prices as the share price rises?

It looks like Landsdowne is done selling and the IIs have taken their position then awaiting further news...

The more ground between those allegations and results the better for boohoo, these things fade with time. Obviously the media will attempt to link great results with the slave labour claims but I don't think it will have much of an effect - everyone knows online retail is thriving and so growth is absolutely expected in this climate.

Because they aren't just buys, I'm seeing enormous sells this time. My guess is that Landsdowne finished selling today, are others in agreement? Or do we think there's another seller?

Scrap that let's aim for the stars - £700m contract it is!

Personally I think a £700m contract is pie in the sky and to be honest if we did I'd consider that a big reckless from the government even though I'm holding a substantial amount of shares.

As we already have a six month contract in place I'd imagine it would be extended by six months in the range of 500k tests a week to 1.5m on the other extreme. I make that £58.5m as the lower bound and ~£180m at the upper bound.

To be fair Routy I've been thinking this for a while and so have you most likely, and up until now there's been nothing explosive. The investment case has changed somewhat as there is now less noise and excitement around what's happening in the US (some of us were hoping for tens of millions generated from US OEM) but the limelight is very much on the UK. It is not beyond possibility to get a contract in the region of one million tests a week which would be 40% of our current capacity straight off the bat...

My investment approach has always been to invest when sentiment is down or recovering, which is where I see novacyt right now. If fireworks are ever going to happen here they are going to happen before September is out... and that for me is enough to say I'm topping up and I'm topping up big time! GLA!

RMS stands for the Richard Marsden service.

She's just sour 'cos he never called back.

I'm really starting to believe there's an enormous contract coming our way. They're ramping up the rhetoric now re tests and they must be starting to run low as we move into the six month of our agreement. Add all those new nhs jobs and you've got to think this is almost a dead cert. So what's everyone's best guess contract-wise?

I'm going for a very conservative 750k tests a week for six months, so 19.5 million tests.

I agree with all this but try to think of it from Graham's perspective. We all know CEOs are beholden to their shareholders but their job is to create long term shareholder value, not short term gains. To someone on the inside like Graham he'll be focused on the job in hand with the plan to update the market some time in the future. To him a few extra weeks from now is nothing, to us holding thousands (and in some cases tens of thousands) of shares those extra weeks feel like years!

As long as we get sales news before September is out that will okay by me.

Why does he say 'steroids' like a Kiwi?

He didn't. It would be totally irresponsible to categorically rule out a second lockdown. He talked about enforcing the rules in order to prevent a second lockdown, something they want to avoid at all costs...

I don't think there will be a second lockdown but it can't be ruled out.