Member Info for Chrishar

After yesterday's rns my thinking now is Graham is deliberately keeping the sales figures under wraps. His comments have kept expectations in check but there is every chance sales are through the roof and the moment he releases an update this moves through the gears. We might land a major contract before that but besides this is a waiting game for sales figures. It might come at the end of this month, October (you'd assume by then because of his bonus), November, December. All I know is when it comes this could move 100% in a day. And for that reason this is not to be traded...

It is going to be interesting for a number of reasons. A full lockdown is off the table no matter what any minister says publicly. Even if they attempt to enforce it it won't be followed.

The big question is what is going to happen this winter now public trust in the government and its measures is at an all time low? Will cases and hospitalisations/deaths get so high that the public are spooked into an almost self-imposed lockdown or will it turn out to have been overblown somewhat and be containable without strict measures? No country yet has faced a winter of covid so we simply don't know what we're in for...

All the while the talk of a second lockdown gathers pace this isn't going to rise. That much is obvious.

What is meant to be happening about the home trial? Surely we aren't going to have to see it through its completion AND gather and interpret the results before any emergency approvals are possible? That would take til Christmas.

It's free to read online.

Congrats Ghia!

p.s don't call her Synthia please! Call her something normal, like X Æ A-Xii

Think of it like this. In what is really four months of trading Novacyt cleared all debts, ramped up production a hundred fold, brought a number of new products to market, employed large numbers of news staff and even after all that came out with €19.7m cash!

The next six months with no debt to clear in the first place, the products already brought to market, the production already ramped up, the distribution networks already in place, the staff already trained... I think we're talking €100m+ cash by year end. Could be as much as €150m!

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/sep/17/more-than-60-back-in-their-workplace-uk-traffic-figures-suggest-ons-covid-19

You'll be surprised how quickly things get back to normal...

The announcement of the new US partnership came later in the year so any substantial revenue from the states will be almost exclusively in H2 - it's an unknown of course but the potential when dealing with America is enormous.

As a french/anglo company obviously other than the UK, France was likely to be our second most important client. Now with the two-gene test that might just turn out to be the case.

If the worst case scenario played out from here I'd lose a bit of money but nothing too painful. The best-case scenario would be life-changing...

Oh god we're not going to be embroiled in painful legal disputes are we like that damn macaque monkey and that selfie?!

9InchNail, you have every reason to be sceptical but if you check my posting history I've speculated since about July that the company will take their foot of the gas in terms of boasting about increasing sales. In the middle of a pandemic it's the ugly side of capitalism to be putting out celebratory sales updates every month.

Seeing as they continue to ramp up production capacity, continue to widen their distribution networks and cases continue to rise globally, I see it as highly unlikely that sales are anything other than pretty damn amazing.

It's not really a bold claim when he'll already pretty much know how the last two months of trading have been and if they've continued to grow sales month on month they'll have almost matched H1 already...

Just to add to HillSeeker's great post...
Up until the end of June, sales had increased month on month. There is every reason to believe it can continue to increase month on month but let's be conservative and say that July-December matches June's sales. That gives us:
H1 - €72.4m sales, €49.4m EBITDA
H2 - €152.4m sales, €104.88m EBITDA
Full year 2020 - €224.8m sales, €154.28m EBITDA. As a conservative forecast that's amazingly good figures. Personally I'd be surprised if they weren't at least 25% higher.

We were told we had extended some contracts into 2021 as far back as mid July. We also know that the winter (Dec-Feb) is most likely going to be the peak. Therefore I see every chance that 2021 will be on a par with 2020.

We have zero debt and almost certainly will continue to have zero debt for the foreseeable future. Isn't that more or less unheard of at midcap level?! All in all I agree with HillSeeker but by this time next year I believe if all goes to plan we'll be able to look at a P/E >10. I make that a £1.4b company this time next year and a share price of ~£20!

Could someone explain what that rns means in practical terms for cineworld? Pretty please!
I don't usually see such a small drop in shares against such a large increase in financial instruments...

New short shown up on short tracker - AHL Partners 0.51%.

It's obvious that they are trying to take advantage of the precarious external situation with the virus. Sure it might drop a little further but any positive vaccine and treatment news and this is moving quick...

Shorts digging in perhaps?

The under promising, over delivering comment is spot on. Those half year results realistically are only for a quarter as the test wasn't launched until 31st Jan, by the end of Feb sales were less than £1m and we were still ramping up well into May.

If H1 was €72.3 sales, €49.2 EBITDA I think it's conservative to expect H2 sales to be €150 and EBITDA €100.

Don't take out a loan to invest in the stock market!

I mean, do what you want. But it's a slippery slope...

With so much money invested here I'm damn relieved to see the back of some of the derampers this morn. Seeing the portfolio drift down thousands and then the squabbling on this bb is not reassuring in the slightest!

He's excited Hamster and there's not much else to discuss right now.

Good reaction to the rns. I thought it was run-of-the-mill but the gross margin and EBITDA figures are striking.