Member Info for chris100

Yes, that true buffet. It aligned with the ebulliant broker notes that also showed great growth for fleet. Which was subsequently flushed down the toilet.

We're still show as a 'sucker stock' on stockopedia algorithims. I guess auto order book doesn't count so we're not going to get on any stock screens anytime soon.

Incidentally, I was looking at microfocus a while back in part because of the divi. I saw the fall the other week and out of interest checked stockopedia which showed it as a 'Super Stock'. Sure, it generates lots of cash but it also has £3.8 billion debt and that's not good in my view. In essence it all seems to be about the cash flow and the rest doesn't matter!

A good broker note could change things - this was the catalyst for the rise last year I think. It seems the brokers have gone in to their shell where SM is concerned after the Fleet **** up and have since lowered the target price.

I'm hoping news in relation to contract wins and also the tech appearing in car next year, in hopefully a significant way (think a large scale Ford model) will help catch the imagination of investors.

Investors (on this BB at least) I think would probably have had a reasonable idea of the ball park figure that SEE would provide for Mondays RNS. The company has been active in 5 RFQs projected at a value of AUD$134 million, we were advised on March 20th. I think we've now had 3 of those RFQs announced and there remains approx AUS $74 (2 RFQs I think) million worth of RFQs up for grabs from that 'active' tranche of 5.

Moving forwards we were advised that SM would be tendering for 8 RFQs in the 2nd half of this year estimated at AUS $245 million. I don't know if there will be more RFQs beyond this but I would be surprised if there weren't.

I think the auto order book could easily be double the $200 million AUD this time next year and a fair bit more. When you look at the calibre of companies that SM has already won contracts with who's to say they won't wipe the floor with the competition.

Terry,
I think FCA launch DMS in 2021. I was uncertain about Ford, but going from mid Jan trading update it's look like they'll lauch early next year. That's great if correct.

'The fourth (North America) and fifth OEM (China) programs are both successfully progressing towards second sample stage of FOVIO chip solution, with first production orders expected within the next 12 months.'

The problem is that each time a contract has been announced lead time for vehicles with DMS is 2/3 years. Byton is the exception to that and I guess Merc have been fairly quick at 2 years if the S6 (?) goes on sale later this year/early next year as expected. That's a positive and hopefully other models follow quickly. I'd like to see VW introduce DMS in 2020 and given that they've used DMS in the past (smarteye in Audi A8) I don't see why it's not feasible. However, unfortunately these OEMs often seen to be ponderous and take an age to get anything done.

I'm just wondering whether 2020 is a bit early for VW with SM but perhaps they've been working in stealth mode.

If hope it's true SAE level 3 with hands free capability at motorway speeds. If it's tech reliant on the driver touching the steering wheel as in the level 2 passat it's pretty naff I think.

https://www.greencarcongress.com/2019/02/20190206-passat.html

DMS will be around for a long time. In nearly all cars for SAE level 1-4 autonomy. Even if level 5 autonomous cars are realised - and that's a big if - you'd probably have DMS for interior sensing of occupants.

Tier 1s aren't expecting level 5 any time soon. See page 13 of the bbelow document for anticipated autonomy trends:

https://vp283.alertir.com/sites/default/files/misc/trends_in_autonomy_and_mobility_-_april_2019.pdf

It's the sum of all the parts you should be concerned with. Contracts worth over Aus $200 million and where will this be in 12 months with say another 11 or 12 RFQs that we're aware of, that are currently pending.

Max speed here only 50mph during this guys journey. I wonder why.

Excellent. Is the new Tier 1 Conti perhaps?

I think there's a fair chance of that and the company clearly do. Since May, all RNS issued have included the following para:-

'DMS is becoming a core safety technology integrated into ADAS offerings for the automotive industry,
particularly with the development of semi-autonomous and self-driving cars. DMS is also increasingly seen
to be an integral safety feature across the Commercial Transport & Logistics industry and is set to be become
a regulatory requirement for all cars, vans, trucks and buses in Europe from 2022, with the rest of the world
expected to follow soon after'

TLS - thanks for that. I didn't receive anything, so have regsitered on the SM website again.

The NTI tie up sounds v promising
'Leads are coming in already, we think this is going to be big'

We know that last year the ORR were looking at our tech for possible use on trains . It seems this is still a possibility, with a particular concern about SPADs (signals passed at danger), but the question remains if or when:-


Page 35
' Train driver management, with
a focus on prevention of SPADs, is a core
inspection item for ORR. Earlier this year ORR
held a cross-industry workshop to consider the
opportunities and challenges associated with
technologies designed to monitor the attention
and alertness of train drivers, including levels
of fatigue. The presentations on the day and
associated discussion created a compelling case
for the GB rail sector to consider further using
such technologies, as related research from
the road transport sector and the falling costs
of technology mean deployment is likely to be
reasonably practicable. '

https://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0019/41419/annual-health-and-safety-report-2018-19.pdf

Yes, it's going to be a problem with the unions. I guess that's why things always take so long to happen.

Ignore that I misread it. Seems they're not so suppoprtive!

It looks like SM might have the unions on side here. Hadn't seen this before:-

http://unitelive.org/bus-driver-fatigue-rowans-law/

Most likely I think. That list of staff members that John C posted a short while ago, of Conti staff now employed at SM in the last 2 years or so, gives an indication of that.

We don't know if the Conti DMS was developed in house or not. Also, whilst I don't have recent broker notes at hand, I thought OEMs were wary to go with Tier 1s for in house devloped DMS, the concern being they may be less inclined to spend on R&D for what is a niche product.