focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
No, never been a CEO. However, I hold Project Management qualifications with over 10 years of experience managing U$50M per annum projects introducing new products into production within a time-to-market environment within the electronics industry. So I do know how to carry out project planning, scheduling, and budgeting. North American corporations don't keep a project manager on for 10 years who consistently deliver project 6 months late.
The problem with Kalaba is this"with the expected resources of 150 m tons sulfide copper". After 1 year of drilling and waiting, we should have a JORC Report which provide more certainty than "expected". I wait to see the JORC before I start to feel confident.
What has NvS been doing the past 6 months? He should have reported that the CSD is up and running, and that he has at least 2 offtakers lined up, and provide a forecast when shipment would start. He said post Indaba that he had offtakers who are willing to give some opex. He didn't report that. So the market showed it's disappointment. He didn't help matters by saying that getting the CSD up was for license reasons, when folks wanted to hear that cash will start to be generated. Anyway, I know you think the CSD is a fall back if cheyeza fail to be what we expect. I don't agree. We will be wiped out if cheyeza isn't world class.
I honestly think if he had reported that he had off take agreements, which he previously said he was discussing, the SP would be over 3p by now. Just saying the plant commissioned, and more for licensing obligations, isn't what folks expected.
Sampling was being done at 50m interval before the new drill campaign due to start. We haven't seen those results. Is the SP being hit because news leaked out that those samples results aren't living up to expectations? I don't know. I personally want to see action, not more words which can be easily changed. I am sure other folks will think differently and post their views. But I noticed that they are all suddenly quiet now.
100% agree. No gold asset sale mean that cash will need to be raised to carry out the new drill program, although I don't think he has spent the money from the recent raise. Look like 1.8p will be here sooner than I expected at this rate.
Are we all still happy with ARCM SP, and how the company is being led? The SP value directly depend on stated objectives being met and not on Posters saying the CEO is doing a great job, when the value of the SP doesn't reflect it. Now is the moment for NvS to step up and provide the leadership some here believe he is capable of, or watch our hard earned cash get blown away like chaff in the wind.
A person should never become so obsessed with an investment that they are never able to step back and review their investment objectively. I am 30% down on ARCM because I held on believing that when the Kalaba JORC is published, and the CSD plant is up and going, and Casa is sold, I'll recover my money. The CEO has pivoted away from every objectives which he previously stated in the various conference calls and interviews, and even after mentioning looking to bring majors via JVs, he turned around and scolded us for being in allure with the majors. We are now about to drill 2 new targets when he havent seen the outcome from the 1st drill campaign. I dont care who blocks me, dont want to read my posts. That doesnt change the reality of where we are right now. We are down, and some folks are looking for others to blame, and silly talk of looking for lower entry price is just that, silly. The SP has been moving consistently lower and lower for the past 6 months and that has nothing to do with Posters. Its to do with the market not seeing what was promised. My posts are repetitive, heh, dont read them. Ignore the SP trend, and the change in direction of the CEO, and one morning we might wake up and find that our investment in ARCM is not what it once was. Obviously, folks invest only what they can afford to lose.
Finally, regarding being delusional, I dont have to be. I too also exchange emails with the CEO and know for a fact that he monitors the posts on social media. I am not here to rescue anyone. We are all adults, we take our lumps.
If Cheyeza initial drill results turns out to be poor, and show sign of being relegated to being a non-mother lode deposit, there will be no need to return to CSD production because the company SP would become non-existent at that point. Plus, from my take of the RNS, I do not gain the sense that there is a 100% commitment to producing and expanding production. Like one wise Poster pointed out on his/her piece on Block Modelling, the CSD was more about maintaining the mining license, than making money from production. Recent moves from the CEO have got me worried as to his ultimate objective, and I will decide my next move once I see the 1st assay results from Cheyeza. Live long and prosper.
https://capitalistexploits.at/why-you-had-better-not-lie-to-this-resource-fund-manager/
ARCM not mentioned, but worth a listen:
hTTps://capitalistexploits.at/why-you-had-better-not-lie-to-this-resource-fund-manager/
The SP isn't falling because of Posters. It's falling because the CSD was late, there is no off take agreements, no sale of casa, and no Kalaba JORC. This litany of failures doesn't sit well with the market and sensible, educated people. The SP is now looking for a new low. When the expected placement comes, everyone will have the opportunity to buy at even lower prices just like the buyer who didn't buy at 1.55 on April 1st can now buy cheaper.
My confidence would be up if I was given a chance to read the Kalaba JORC which is what he promised and which we haven't seen, and now we are like magpies chasing the next shiny bauble. I am worried that he could lose interest in cheyeza just like he did with kalaba if the next thing comes along. He has shaken confidence by not publishing the kalaba JORC. All that he said in the various interviews and conference call before he pivoted to cheyeza now have no credibility in my eyes. This is not consistent with what is expected from a seasoned mining exec. Cheyeza better come up with something otherwise the SP will be wiped out totally.
@Peggy, I think folks are coming around to the disappointment. I saw so many predictions, and guesses regarding how the SP would rise when the CSD is commissioned, yet it goes the other way. On twitter 1 punter had predicted a 1p rise with news of the CSD up and running, and a further 1p when cashflow data become known. Not seeing that. Even the NvS rampers on here have gone quiet. It's clear now that what NvS say and what he does are not always in alignment. Those folks are happy to see the SP go down because they have absolute faith in NvS and the SP doesn't matter. I think we will now see a rethink. No one invest to lose money.
A near term event is required to shore up the SP: -Sale of gold assets. -Bringing on a JV partner. -Cashflow from CSD. If none of the above doesn't happen, and a placement become necessary, it will be hard for NvS to command a premium.
The RNS communicated that the priority now is "our next phase of exploration and our newly identified targets", and not publishing the Kalaba JORC. Unfortunately, for bigger longer term investors start to sit up and take notice, they need to see either a Kalaba JORC, or drill/assay results from Cheyeza/Lumbeta which will make the investment case that ARCM is worth the risk. Hence, we will be waiting a few more months.
I dont have a degree in Mining/Geology, but my understanding from the RNS is that an assessment will now be carried out using computer modelling, using data from various sources to arrive at the conclusion whether the ore boundary, % values of the grades encountered (I assume from the Kalaba drill campaign), and the density of the ore encountered still represents a viable business case for continued mining? We haven't seen the last set of assays, and we have seen a sudden pivot away from Kalaba to the new targets which I think is designed to keep PI interested and to overlook the no show of the Kalaba JORC. It is logical to deduce that we might see the company arrive at the conclusion that as well as Kalaba not being the mother lode, it might also not be worth spending further money on by continued mining. Why else have we been waiting for 6 months already? I truly hope that I am wrong and that the unseen data/assay reports will indeed be positive and will make the economic case to continue with the CSD operation. Otherwise, I can the locals in Chief Silunga's Chiefdom being very unhappy that the level of employment they were expecting wont be coming. So, I hope for the best, but the SP will be under severe pressure if the CSD turn out to be uneconomic, although I can see in that event that Cheyeza data will be used to provide reassurance and to support the SP.
The next 3 months will be interesting and telling. PI must also remember that if the gold assets arent sold, or a JV signed, or loans taken out against the CSD if it is economic, then more money will need to be raised by way of placements to fund drilling of the new targets. Good luck to longer suffering PIs.
@Peggy, I feel the the same disappointment as you regarding this SP. I am expecting the SP to hit 1.80p by end of Q3/19 if the gold assets arent sold by then. With the new drill campaign in full swing, and if no JV by then, a placement would by then become necessary in order to carry on. My biggest fear now for my 1M+ shares is that the 2 new targets results will turn out to be the same as Kalaba, and that there will be no JORC at the end of Q1/20. I also feel it for the workers in the local area who have been waiting for the promised jobs.