Member Info for chilting

SP is actually holing up very well today - at the moment - all around are falling fast.

More of the same I guess - its all balancing out at the moment - small rises then a knock back - nothing conclusive.

The charts say POO could retest the December 2018 low but that seems extremely pessimistic and with supply falling very unlikely but nothing is impossible.

At the other extreme the Iranians could hit supplies hard with military action but any gain is likely to be short lived because if POO rises too high that will cause a recession and demand will fall.

So I guess we are back to the slow grind with Enquest slowly paying off debts and as usual jam tomorrow - AB needs a new strategy I think - I still have confidence that he will pull it off but the wait could be a very long one.

I haven't totally given up hope on Government Guarantees, I still think that if Johnson gets a Brexit deal that gives us the best chance on the run up to a general election. The promises will be flowing freely then and Northern Powerhouse is sure to be on the agenda.

Also the hunt for an equity stakeholder is still on, maybe the Chinese are looking, but the cost would be high.

Realistically the SP is likely to come under pressure again - shorts are increasing - all the time the SP is under the falling average of 6-7p we are in danger of another step down - certainly not time to average down yet.

Another big notch up.

I have just noticed that this is a revised ETA - a day later than MO originally reported.

So Navion Oceania has an ETA at Kraken on Friday afternoon - thank you MO.

With all the weather action in the Atlantic the North Sea is forecast to be as calm as a mill pond.

The article actually says that yesterdays price action can only partly be explained by shorts closing.

I certainly think that there are grounds to speculate that an institution is either adding to their stake or that we have a new maybe corporate buyer or institution building a stake.

Now 5.09% - only one of these changes was on Friday - so more to come.

SIRIUS MINERALS PLC
Citadel Europe LLP
0.96%
0.17%
26 Sep 2019

SIRIUS MINERALS PLC
Polygon Global Partners LLP
0.57%
-0.15%
26 Sep 2019

SIRIUS MINERALS PLC
Highbridge Capital Management LLC
1.83%
-0.09%
26 Sep 2019

SIRIUS MINERALS PLC
Polygon Global Partners LLP
0.29%
-0.28%
27 Sep 2019

Well it certainly looked like it might be a pump and dump at lunchtime but after some of the day traders took their profits we had a second wind and the buying continued.

The interesting thing is the level of autobuys - maybe someone is building or increasing a stake - if so we will find out soon enough.

On the agenda this afternoon -

14.00
Clean Growth and Protecting our Environment A discussion on how the Conservative party is championing a new economy, focused on technology, education and the environment. Panel Members include:  Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy  Minister of State for Business, Energy and Clean Growth  Minister of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and International Development  Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
Chancellor of the Exchequer
Building the Infrastructure Britain Needs A discussion on Conservative party plans to connect up our nation, ensuring everyone, from businesses to families, benefits from world class infrastructure. Panel Members include:  Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport  Secretary of State for Transport  Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government

It will be interesting to see if SM gets a mention and if it is a positive one.

Digittt
This process has completed and the bureaucrats agreed on guarantees but then SM decided to go on a different funding route.

drax
Its just as much a political decision - Northern Powerhouse credibility - General Election looming - new agenda after Brexit etc.

The chain
It is why I remain optimistic.

drax
We are not talking Government cash here - simply for the Government to act as a guarantor - that would kick things off on the funding.

One thing that is possible - maybe we will get a U tern announcement re the Government Guarantees at the Tory Party conference this week - a long shot , but one to keep an eye on.

SP settling down now with normal spread - a decent reversal of some of Fridays losses.

I am not at all convinced by this takeover talk - although I do think that AB has little regard for the SP and that the companies PR machine has never run at full throttle.

The main factor controlling the SP is as always Brent and the simple inability for anyone to predict where it is going next in the short term or the long term term - set this against Enquest's debt levels and the uncertainty created simply deters investors.

Kraken is of course the the key to the future and as we all know production has been very good since the spring, therefore, with debt reducing there is an end in sight to this deadlock - patience is as always the key.

Final Results for year end 30th June - Due Wednesday 2nd October

Bashers/Trolls call them what you like - but they can be split into three categories

1. Gnats - these are the annoying sods who know nothing - give us a one liner and usually only have one or two posts to their name - then they disappear when the going improves - Just ignore.

2. Blue Bottles - these are the persistent ones who keep coming back with the same old cr*p - the smug individuals who say I told you so. - Never respond to these that's how they get their kicks.

3. Hornets - a rare species - knowledgeable with the power to sound credible and the ability to distort. - Its a always a pleasure to catch them out.

This is an extract from Moody's latest credit review - it refers to the impact of a fairly modest increase of oil prices on the Chinese economy.

"Oil price shock scenario
We used our global macroeconomic model to examine the impact of an oil price shock on China’s GDP growth. Under the baseline, Brent crude oil averages US$66.82 per barrel in the December quarter and US$65.40 per barrel in 2020. In the oil price shock scenario Brent rises to US$68.09 per barrel in the December quarter and US$71.22 per barrel in 2020. The simulation is timely given the recent devastating attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities and is an example of heightened geopolitical tensions in the region, which may keep upward pressure on global oil prices. It could be that the price impact of various tensions is not transient and instead has more medium-term impacts. In the baseline, China’s GDP growth is forecast at 6.1% in 2019 and 5.8% in 2020. In the oil price shock scenario, GDP growth in 2019 is broadly unchanged but by 2020 slows to 5.5%. From a consumption perspective, higher fuel prices will further dent already-weakened discretionary spending. Consumers are grappling with a spike in food prices, which have been rising since February, so higher fuel prices will add to the pain. From a manufacturing perspective, it will likely help bring producer prices out of deflation but will add to input costs in an already-weakened demand environment."

It does beg the question - if the oil price increases as a result of supply shocks and that increase causes economic damage any increase in oil price is likely to be short lived and the resulting damage could push oil prices substantially lower.