Member Info for chilting

I think they are billed on the understanding that the Government will pick up the bill if they don't pay.

I think that's a little optimistic Dumbly - the main thing is that the SP increases with Brent as the year goes on and AB holds back on the open offer for as long as possible - if the open offer seems to be a good deal with Brent going strong the offer price will be higher.

BTFATH
You may be being too pessimistic - a lot depends on the timing of the open offer - if AB delays it until the SP improves - it will if Brent continues to rise - then the outlook for long term holders is much better than you prediction.
Otherwise wait until after the open offer and buy in then if Brent remains high.

I just did a booking check for later in the month - there is no availability for the three hotels closest to Gatwick.
A good indication I think, that these hotels will be used for Covid quarantine.

Kraken
The problem is that AB has little choice but to go back to the shareholders for equity if he wants to grow the company and he has to replace producing assets as they go past the peak of production.
Its a catch 22 - sting the shareholders for more cash or fade away.
What will it be like when he wants to fund Bressay?

I can see £35-40 by the summer but beyond that could take a while - more of a plod than a leap up.

I wonder if Premier Inn will benefit from the Government's Covid hotel quarantine scheme - it would be a good way of filling the airport hotels.

This is my quiet time of the year Romaron and Covid has made it even quieter - I have to do something - even if its only commenting on here - or I would go nuts - not long till the Spring and 12 hour days lubricated by lots of cash.

We have seen fairly steady growth here since the summer with the general acceptance that M&S is getting on track for better things in the years to come. The older High Street stores are being replaced with modern out of town stores with a focus on food. The convenience store network is thriving. Management are making decisive decisions pushed by Covid.

The Ocado tie up is going very well and even the M&S website is improving but needs to do better.

Also with the completion falling by the wayside M&S is well placed to grab market share.

Next Tuesday Ocado will publish their end of year results - this should give M&S a boost as well.

The point is that most of us have a good idea what sort of return we will get from an investment - if the sums don't add up we think of something else or another way of doing it.
But companies that trade in commodities where the price is constantly changing don't have that luxury and with forward planning a necessity the chances of stuffing things up are high.

Yes, but an oil executive probably only has to make a really big decision every few years totally blindfolded because he doesn't know how much oil will be worth next week let alone in five years time when the chicken lays the golden eggs.

The trouble with the oil industry from a chief executives point of view is that as soon as a new project is started they have to start thinking about the next one.

Because if they don't company production will start to fall at the blink of an eye.

If they get it wrong they are stuffed - off course they are stuffed anyway if Brent falls off a cliff.

I will leave it to other to decide if AB has got it wrong - but personally I think its all down to Brent - AB would have been a bloody hero if Brent had topped $70 for the last couple of years and the SP would probably be in pounds rather than pence - even Squiff would have been worshiping him!

Sticking to the facts - during the summer of 2018 the SP hit the low 40s - the rights issue for Magnus came on 7th September - by the late Autumn the SP had fallen below 20p.
Apart from a brief rally in January 2020 when the SP almost reached 30p investors have seen the SP below 15P for most of the time.

The main reason for this is the price of oil.

The judgement call on investing in Enquest will depend on how quickly the oil price recovers and how long we have to wait for the open offer.

I think that tomorrow the SP recover some of its losses - as long as Brent stays high - after that we just have to hope that the SP recovers ahead of the open offer and that AB delays the open offer for as long as possible.

If the open offer is announced with the SP at current levels then we can expect the SP to be depressed for the long term.

But if AB delays the open offer until the SP recovers to above 25p - later in the year - then Enquest will be a good investment and reward long term holders.

mrc
The point with carbon capture is that it a bolt on - the tanker arrives and instead of loading it you unload it and pump the carbon back underground - the other advantage is that the more carbon that is pumped underground the build up in pressure makes more oil and gas extractable - for the marginal fields it could make all the difference between decommissioning and continued revenue from two sources.

mrc
That's why I don't want to make the same mistake again.

As for renewables - renewables are sexy - they make the SP grow - just look at the M cap of companies like ITM and compare it to ENQ. - the thing is the investment doesn't even need to to be massively profitable to attract investors.

Take a look at the 5 year chart for ENQ - last equity issue was 7th September 2018.

https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChart.asp?sharechart=ENQ&share=Enquest

Not sure about recent investors - that will depend on the issue price - hopefully not to bad.
New investors after the open offer should do well as long as Brent behaves.
I guess the big winners are the bond holders - they just need financial stability and with news of new equity investment and debt restructuring they have that it bucket loads.

Not sure about recent investors - that will depend on the issue price - hopefully not to bad.
New investors after the bond issue should do well as long as Brent behaves.
I guess the big winners are the bond holders - they just need financial stability and with news of new equity investment and debt restructuring they have that it bucket loads.

Yes, true - Magnus was £107 million - this time its around £37 million.

mrc
Yes, that's good news for the company and the bondholders but not for the existing shareholders.
Its probably shareholders who buy in after the open offer has completed that have most to gain.

The fact is that the capital spend on Kraken so far hasn't realised the revenue needed to yield a substantial profit on the enterprise simply because Brent has been so low.
Now that Kraken is starting to show signs of slowing production is has become necessary to make new investment to maintain production levels. The first of these was Magnus.
The cash for this investment has to come from somewhere and like the investment for Magnus, the only source - with company debts being so high - is the shareholders.
Personally, I would say that a better option at this stage would be a merger with another oil company.