The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Great stuff there but whilst it seems to make sense at first, it will be different after the fourth day. In fact as the days progress there will be a difference. The easiest analogy to imagine is this: imagine me and you having each a store that sells apples. You start off with 850 apples that you sell at $21 per apple and I start with 1,250,000 apples that I sell at $0.014 per apple. Each day, the price doubles for 30 days. What will happen to the profit margins in comparison on the 30th day? What I'm saying is that the doubling effect makes more sense with a balancing effect in place. If we go to day four of your calculation and assume the same doubling then yours should be $168 X 850 units which equals $142,800 and mine on the fourth day should be $0.112 X 1,250,000 = 140,000 which is still $2800 less than the post reverse split. This difference makes them not the same because one may have more than the other. Its one of those conundrums, great to discuss. Over time there may be a difference reflected. I don't know if I even make sense anymore I'm high most times lol
Hahahaha I missed you Beep Boop 143, my favourite Tesla Bot that always malfunctions when introduced to common sense. Trust me, the time has come for the bears to leave hibernation and eat fresh salmon this season. It will be grizzly for the Tesla cult followers because we will eat them like salmon.
Tesla is finished for now, the bag holders are still hoping papa Elon has a new trick up his sleeve.
Reverse split comparison
1,275,000 units | Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3
Before split | $0.014 | $0.028 | $0.056
Value | $17,850 | $35,700 | $71,400
--------------------------------------------------------------------
850 units Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3
After split | $10 | $20 | $40
Value | $8,500 | $17,000 | $34,000
Here is a simpler break down of the above below:
If you start off on day 1 with 1,250,000 shares valued at $0.014 then the value is actually $17,850. This is derived from multiplying the value of shares by the number of shares like this : 1,250,000 X $0.014 = $17,850
Now on day two when the price doubles you have a new value of $0.028 because $0.014 multiplied by two is equals $0.028. you then take this second day figure and multiply it by your holding of 1,250,000 shares and multiply this by the second day figure of $0.028 and this gives you $35,700.
Day 3 as per the example where I started that the price rises 100% per day for three days, the price once again doubles, meaning that we multiply $0.028 by two which equals $0.056. we then multiply $0.056 by your holdings of 1,250,000 shares giving us a total of $71,400. Now this calculation example is the scenario pre- reverse split. Now the example calculation below is the scenario post revert split, maning that the 1,250,000 shares are now 850 shares after consolidation. Here is the post reverse split example below breakdown:
Day 1, 850 units at $10 each equals $8,500. This is derived from multiplying it this way: 850 X $10= $8,500
On day two assuming the doubling of the value, the new share price should be $20 per unit because $10 multiplied by two is equals $20. So we multiply the new value of $20 by the consolidated holding of 850 units which equals $17,000.
On day 3 when the price doubles again, we then have a new value derived from doubling $20 by two which equals $40 per unit. We then multiply $40 by the consolidated holding of 850 units which equals $34,000
This as a results means that under the consolidated holding, the security holders gain less than they would before the reverse split. Get it??? Or should I simplify it even more??
Those were just example numbers not actual values. It was to show that the reverse split has a disadvantage in terms of gains accumulated over time. There is a bigger financial gain advantage for someone holding 1 million shares over someone holding 800 shares. The doubling effect is more effective when compounded with a larger holding. My point is that holding 800 consolidated shared that have a higher value per unit is still technically a disadvantage compared to holding a larger volume of shares at a lower value of there is a market crash or correction scenario because any compounding effect is reflected better with larger volume holdings.
This comparison is based on a 33.33% daily drop in Tesla which equates to a 100% rise in 3sts. It's a what if there was a 100% gain for 3 days scenario and what are the implications of a reverse split?
The recent 3STS split may be a halving of potential gains when looked at from a market crash perspective. Consider the example below where I have compared a pre-reverse split price and post reverse split price based on 1,275,000 units consolidated into 850 units post reverse split. It appears that the holder may be at a disadvantage after the reverse split should market conditions be adverse under the leveraged 3STS security. The gains are lower in terms of value after consolidation and much higher at pre- reverse split.
Reverse split comparison
1,275,000 units | Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3
Before split | $0.014 | $0.028 | $0.056
Value | $17,850 | $35,700 | $71,400
--------------------------------------------------------------------
850 units Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3
After split | $10 | $20 | $40
Value | $8,500 | $17,000 | $34,000
There is a reverse split consolidation coming on 17th May. It's a ratio of 1500 : 1 which seems major and kind of ridiculous but from the guidance it seems to be a reaction to the recent sudden downward trend in Tech sector plus there could be a market correction due or Tesla may just suddenly rise to more than 33% in a day meaning a wipe out for holders but either way we will need to observe the changes coming.
https://graniteshares.com/institutional/uk/en-uk/research/3sts-reverse-split-effective-17-may-2021
If you've ever played Limbo then you will know how low Short people can go. To the ground.
Or we could even just continue to be delusional and ignore all common sense and go by Cathy Woods' predictions of $3500 per share post split by 2025 and arrive at $3500 X 5 presplit equals $17500 per share presplit by 2025. As if that isn't madness altogether. That would make Tesla more valuable than anything in the energy industry ever! Or even the world. Even if every man and his dog bought 10 Tesla's each plus all it's other services and products it would still be hard to justify that crazy estimate by Quacky Crooks.
What's even worse is these guys want the price to increase post split to over $1250 per share and call it fair pricing hahahaha this is hilarious and greedy beyond rationale. Imagine $1250 X 5 pre split equals $6250 per share pre split! Madness isn't even close to describing this craziness alone. Come on guys this is just unsustainable and you know it.
Good question....let's see what the future holds.
Cathie woods is not staying true to here words after all then at? Scottish mortgages just recently dumped a chunk of Tesla shares and the sentiment is now starting to shift a little over to the cold side. Beware and be prepared......
Pump and dump on Eurasia perhaps?
To the moon they say.....pffft it's running out of steam. The bull trap stage is set and now enjoy the show. The free fall begins.
Koffee, stop twisting my words. Be decent like Dogberry. I never said anything bad about tech. I simply remarked that there seems to be a lot of Elon butt kissing going on and the man and his company are far from perfect. We all love Tesla's ideas but just not the price. You seem to be emotionally attached to Tesla and it's never a good sign for an investor to emotionally invest in a stock. The Accident at hand surely has drawn some wild speculation, some untrue and some trivial but the bottom line is that it was a Tesla and the family/ collegues of the deceased distinctly mentioned that these guys were ranting and raving about putting their Tesla FSD to the test. I know you said Elon said they never subscribed to the FSD but he could easily delete the evidence that FSD subscription was live or ever enabled in the vehicle. Trusting Elon whose very real interest is in protecting his brand is a fallacy. Let's try to be objective and allow the real investigators to gather their findings and put the fanboy mentality to one side. If we keep ignoring the truth because we love Elon, then we stand to lose when the danger comes to us one day. Right now the best thing to do is to short the stock and use it as a method to address our concerns and lower the share price as a response to the need for some redress to the issue of safety. We cannot ignore danger. Shorting is indeed a good thing and we must collectively realign our positions to let Elon know we want action.
Real FSD when it does comes will not feature a steering wheel or driver's side. It will just be a full scale passenger carrying vehicle. Dreams of FSD are too unrealistic and miss out the whole point of progressing towards full automation and eliminating human error altogether. What Tesla is essentially doing is trying to monopolise FSD technology and ignoring the fact that FSD is more effective if it becomes open source just as Elon pretends to provide but really is very protective over the development of his FSd platform. If FSd is jointly developed and worked on with other manufacturers then the trajectory of development will be much better, safer and quicker in transitioning. What is happening is just some greedy guys trying to create a monopoly of FSD cars whilst other manufacturers are left behind which will still present the same problems because if only Tesla's have FSD, what is to stop the cars being driven by humans from crashing into the Tesla cars and just making the progress of Tesla a vanity project? It's like going to the gym and training one arm only over the course of a year, sure one arm is big and toned and developed nicely but the other is significantly impaired. Humans live in a cooperative society and selfishness holds progress to ransom, this is what is essentially wrong with Tesla fan boys. Too silly to see common sense.
Koffee, Tesla has less accidents because there are considerably less Tesla vehicles on the road. The ratio of 4.5 million miles does not compare to the mileage of ICE vehicles. Tesla is relatively new and so are the FSD systems which are still technically in early testing stages with very little real FSD in legal use. Most of what is in application is cruise control with computer software assisting the driver who is still legally required to be present at the wheel hence the disengagement the minute the driver is absent. This latest accident is a signifier for bigger problems at Tesla, no company is perfect and Tesla now needs to show real accountability and stop pandering to the shareholders. A drop is healthy and the company needs a real correction anyway. Sometimes we fall to become greater.
I love the many nicknames Dogberry and his cult have for me.....when I'm winning they never say I'm the Champ, they are so quick to call me a foolish Chimp when I point out inconsistencies. Then they say the share price is down because Chump and his crew are spreading FUD. It doesn't matter Whether I'm a Chump or Chimp, because this Champ will Chomp your share price down :) . Anyways, what's the latest news recently? Ah I see , bitcoin facing further regulatory sanctioning from the central banks and Tesla cars killing more people with incomplete FSD software I see.....enjoy!
I watched Sandy's take on Innovations and he seems like a great guy but I can't help but notice the strange feeling that he is much like most engineers that have spent most of their lives trapped in legacy motor engineering. Now that he is free to see what free reign for engineering feels like, he has unrealistic and untamed ideals like most engineers. I get it when he says we have no idea of what is possible but the limits are still the same in today's world. Tesla motors will have a make it or break it day of Reckoning soon.