Member Info for chester18

SomewhatG

Saw SAHB at the Freetrade Hall, Manchester May 1975......

Absolutely brilliant live, brought back great memories......

Chester.

Mushroom,

I've just Rec your post for the sole reason that I like the fact that a 180% jump in the price, "would be somewhat pleasant".

A most solid reason in my book.

Chester.

Hi Crumbs

A very hypothetical question :

Firstly how much funding do we think would be needed ?

Could they raise those funds in a placing at 10p ?

I know its a premium to yesterdays close but I personally would buy in a placing because you know the money is going straight to the company for its future development.

As I say hypothetical but when needs must....

Chester.

We've spoken before about the amount of coiled up tension in all of Scancells platforms. This current drive towards a vast new platform in the control of human viruses could very well unleash the full technological worth of Scancells patents and approvals.

The poundland biotech may just be waking up. Key to it all is the funding.

Chester.

The great dilemma.

Been here since Newmont deal fell apart and held even though I had an average of 2p and the SP dropped back to 0.6p. When the SP started knocking on the 2.0p door again at the back end of last year I really started to believe, especially when Paddy was able to do CoreBox, that was compelling, real shame it's not available anymore.

It's hard looking at the numbers on a screen and seeing it as real money, also if you take it out, it will be like what have I left behind.

Next weeks news will determine where we are at this point in the journey. Yes the core results and yes any info on the step outs or forward planning, but it will be what words SB chooses to use and how he can let the excitement get the better of him that will be the nuggets of truth.

If the 10% brigade do cause a pull back I'm holding some cash ready to pounce. Saying that, in all honesty I can't see it happening.

Monday to Wednesday trading will be very interesting....

Good luck to all GGP shareholders.

Chester.

This new virus is acutely aggressive once its overpowered the immune system and is highly contagious, without leaving a strong impression on the immune system.

What Scancell are about to try is to build a completely new platform that will cope with future mutations and future possible coronavirus pandemics.

It's a world of science in itself.

There must be some smart people out there with deep pockets that are willing and capable of giving Scancell the backing they require.

Q: Can we not convince Trump that it's a kind of disinfectant..........

Chester.

Cheers C7

I don't have a very large portfolio but the ones I'm in are well researched.
Always been a believer in Scancell.

Plus I've beening adding here quite bit this last two months. So very happy to hear some positive news from Scancell.

Chester.

Hi Donek

Just reading that makes you realise that a fully funded TRX would absolutely fly...
Thank you for posting that, there is much research that can be done on TRX.

Chester.

Potential Partners :

The Dream Team :

Genetech
BioNtech
ISA Pharmacuticals

They already have close links ..... so why not.

Chester.

Should be "in buying CellRight"...

Oops...

Good post B2HS2L

I appreciate that we do need to be sensible with our expectations.

All I keep coming back to is just how much in demand and how great TRX's products are. Plus all the work that has gone in to build this company and as pointed out by someone else in a recent post, the fact that some £80m has been invested in by CellRight, applying for patents and winning approvals in the USA and Europe.

The business is worth alot more than the current Market Cap.

Chester.

Hi Sinden

I was definitely not having a go but just saying that it's alot more positive than it was and yes it is frustrating that they can't just say a deal is done.

Hope springs eternal, just can't see this business not getting the right funding.

Funding in place before this years AGM late June. Now there's a prediction .....

Chester.

I just can't see Scancell jumping into the fray without doing some work in the labs first.
Today's announcement can only come from a place of knowledge. They are probably way further down the line than we are allowed to know, that's the usual 'modus operandi' of Scancell.

Also, just a point on funding, due to the other trails being on temporary hold, I would expect that they will have more cash at this time than they would have had if those trials were running.

I think we all knew if there was a chance of Lindy being able to make a difference, she would.

ATB

Chester.

Hi Sinden888

Don't you get the feeling that the management have done everything they could possibly do to extend the cash runway.
The business side is coping very well in these difficult times, the customers are still there for BioRinse products producing increased turnover in 2020 mainly from those products.

The board now have three more months to continue driving sales and attracting the right kind of investment, not the 'Handcuffs' deal with MidCap.

TRX are probably now in a much better position than they were early in 2019 when that deal was negotiated.

Putting everything together and even considering the practicalities of the business constraints because of CV-19, I think TRX can continue advancing in 2020, realise funding, begin outfitting the new facility, train up new staff, bring DermaPure back up to speed and make 2021 a very exciting year.

Just consider for one minute that these things come to pass, what would the company be worth at the end of 2021 x5, x10 ?

The current 'below a penny' price is a fantastic discount to their potential, so I'm continuing to invest and holding firm as this story unfolds.

All just my opinion please do you own research and form your own opinions.

Chester.

Morning Inanaco

Do have any upto date info on the Nano-Delivery being developed by CRUK on SCIB 2?

Chester.

Morning Sandhopper / Sonnets

May I add Reneuron and Verona Pharma, just two that I was invested in and both were mercilessly hammered afterwards by the MM's, reducing the worth of the stock by more than half.

Although there can be a positive outcome, Oxford Biomedica and Silence Therapeutics both consolidated and then increased rapidly.

I think its alot to do with why the company consolidated and how healthy the underlying business is at the time that it's done.

Verona Pharma did it to move on to the Nasdaq to bring in US investors only it didn't wash and became a large cost for no gain.

I would be unsure if TRX went down that route until any new investment / funding has created a profitable company, so circa 2023 in my opinion.

Chester.

Morning All and thank you for your comments.

I'm definitely not an accountant and my figures are a mixture of guesswork and general assumptions.

Please just use them as a rough guide with the sole intention of giving us all some general guidance to where TRX are and where they could be given the right investment capital.

To Bozo, I'm presuming that the current running costs are well down because of CV-19. So this years % loss will not be as high as in the past.
The board always said breakeven in 2020 on a turnover of £26m, so my £20m is a very rough ballpark based on all the streamlining they have had to do trying to fulfil the criteria for the MidCap loan.

I set out to document when and how the company had planned to get into profit, which I think I've done, but don't take it as gospel.

I would really appreciate someone with an accountancy background having a dig into the last few years RNS's / Hardman Reports and giving it a more professional eye.

All the very best TRX stalwarts

Chester.

Happy 63rd Birthday C7.

Thank you for all your posts, your updates, your insights and your passion all things Scancell.

If I can wish you one thing it would be to enable you the superpower of being able to judge when a big buy or sell is on the way .......... "oh hang on you already have that"....... you will just have to do with my wish gor you to have a content and happy day.

My best wishes

Chester.

Following on from the post by Chilll I decided to do a bit of digging into the past TRX finance reports and the Hardman reports.
I wanted to document how and when break even was supposed to happen.

In the Interim Financial Report dated 30th June 2018 the then chairman John Samuel said "We remain committed to our objective of break even in 2020".

In the Hardman Report 10th April 2019 they spelt out the projections of future turnover :
2019 = £18.67m and 2020 = £25.73m.

Putting the growth to one side if we look at the Losses it gives a rough idea of the underlying cost to deliver the business.
2017 T/O £ 5.20m Loss £ 9.4m
2018 T/O £ 11.62m Loss £ 8.3m
2019 T/O £ 13.00m Loss £ 7.8m approx ( full accounts not out yet ).

In the past the company was operating on a 60% gross margin so we can only presume that it is still that figure.
By doing a bit of maths I have deduced that there was an underlying annual running cost of approx £14.2m, which due to the current cost cutting measures could now be around £12m, this means we need a turnover of £20m pa to break even.

What turnover figure for 2020 ?

Well 2019 produced £13m and we are being told that there is currently an 18% growth on that figure.
2020 looks likely to be around £15.5m and possibly more as the second shift in San Antonio gets to full capacity.
That would therefore still create a minimum Loss of £6.2m.
(Remember that this years figures are predominately down to BioRinse and that DermaPure was growing at 60% to 70% per year and we will not benefit from those DermaPure sales until the new facility is built and CV-19 is somewhat defeated).

Final Analysis :

Turnover in 2020 £15.5m = Loss of £6.2m
2021 £20.5m = *Break Even*
2022 £30.0m = Profits approx £10m

So we need at least £10m to complete the development of the second facility and provide capacity to increase all the product we produce (growth of DermaPure being potentially huge in gynecology), Plus we need £6m to £7m to cover losses in 2019.

Capital required approx £17m, returns from that investment start end 2022.

Where could the company be by 2025 ? Turnover £ 35m / £ 40m producing potential annual profit of £10 to £15m.

I hope that shows just how close TRX are to breaking free of their financial chains. They have come a long way in a short number of years and I am sure there are funds out there that meet the needs of this company.

Chester.

Hi Chillll

Is there any chance you could do that analysis again but put some figures in.
My lifes work was in the metal engineering / construction / manufacturing so would not know where to start on what you wrote.

Be very interesting to see how that interrogation of TRX's figures come out.

If you can't, no problem, just thought it would be an opportunity to learn.

All the best

Chester.