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Any thoughts on what total volume for today might be? I suspect not nearly as high as earlier this month as we have even more sticky hands thank before. The volume from now until the New Year should be interesting and at best healthy.
GLA
Was able to add a few, happy to now wait and choose my moments over the next few days.
GLA
Time for some fuel...Petroflakes or Petrobix
GLA
Looks like they've gone fishing for a few prior to the call, the MM's and hedge funds will be running every play in the book today and for the next few days. If you still intend to buy, try and find the dips, and hold well in to 2024.
GLA
Currently at the same uplift (69%) after the 1st TenneT announcement, although we are still 137% off those 83p highs from earlier in the year.
GLA
Nice little uplift in WG also, off the back of some new leadership announcements, seems the sector is back in vogue understanding that PFC & WG are so intrinsic to the energy transition, dare I say more important than than the banks and cannot be allowed to just disappear.
GLA
I'm going to add another 10% to my holding during the day, cannot buy at the moment but happy to wait.
GLA
Well well, congratulations to all that kept the faith and will continue to do so. This will rise at a steady pace as the shorts continue to manipulate and suppress. However, rest assured and with mental strength we should all feel lower anxiety levels over the Xmas period, as the CEO and board have shown true gumption in light of opportunistic chancers. A very good update and looking forward to watching the price action today knowing that the future looks bright as move forward in to 2024 and beyond. I still stand by my thought that a takeover is on the cards by the end of 2024, if that transpires, then whoever will have to pay much more, albeit with, I anticipate, a smaller agile Petrofac when that occurs.
GLA and don't set any stops for the foreseeable future.
Now that the NED (ADB) should've done his work, I'm expecting a short-term bridging loan arrangement to run for 6 months, this may be in conjunction and repackaged with current revolving credit facilities with the can kicked down the road on the main revolving credit facility, because of the recent body of future work that has been won, a nice easy rate of return for the lenders. It's not ideal as a higher rates will no doubt be agreed than would've been next year if the restructure of debt wasn't required until then, all pretty standard stuff, albeit some would have you believe a renegotiation of debt and revolving credit facilities never happens.
The upside being we will have assurances and bond provisions guaranteed. The bridging loan will be paid back in full, with receipts from closing out existing legacy work, no doubt some business unit/division sales, and receipt of further payments from the recently won and pending contacts. There should be NO requirement for dilution or D4E under any of these avenues or combination of both to correct the balance sheet.
The above does not require any ii or cornerstone investors making a surety payment, and of course that is also option, as is the announcement of a part/full takeover offer, however, as stated recently I expect this to happen in time once the balances sheet has been corrected, possibly after the bridging loan is fully repaid and non-core or core unit sales have been completed, clearing the decks for accurate offers based on enterprise value at that relevant time, timescales, possibly at the latest this time next year.
Will we see any large late trades?
GLA see you all bright and early tomorrow....that will be roughly around 02:00 am EST for some of you that are short, remember to cover up tonight if you've not already done so, tick tock
Go fishing or start to cover....
tick tock
GLA
FOMO?
Over at WG new contract announced supporting Germany's offshore wind development. Berenberg downgraded WG but stated hold, they obviously have no more information than anyone else, therefore the lesson is here, is to ignore them.
GLA for tomorrow, I will add whatever the news tomorrow
FYI: Berenberg obviously didn't get the memo
https://www.woodplc.com/news/latest-press-releases/2023/wood-to-support-one-of-the-worlds-largest-offshore-wind-to-grid-connection-projects
GLA
I agree, they should be jailed or held to account, but nothing rarely happens. What I mentioned last night should be elaborated on in so much if, like myself, you are involved in financial aspects of a business, even relatively low down in the corporate structure, when you are dealing with multiple functions (tax, accounts, finance, treasury, pensions, HR) you are so interconnected that word gets around like wildfire, so no doubt leaks to external parties are bound to happen, however, you are never in receipt of the full facts, and they can be misinterpreted. Contrast this with the TenneT contract coming out of the blue, why, the same functions and everyday staff would not generally know or be involved with the operational/projects tendering process, only the highest level of senior financial management would liaise with such bidding teams on a need to know basis, hence there was, if you believe, no leaks regarding TenneT, although the SP did misbehave for the month preceding the Tennet announcement.
GLA
PaddiG, if a deal is to be or needs to done, any regulatory/monopoly concerns can be overcome. You don't have to sell all the division to one other company, parts can be sold to different groups, or if whole to a new player?
GLA
As we move into next week the anticipation will build, but I would add a note of caution regarding anything concreate regarding all the short-term liquidity issues being fully resolved. Will the 20th be a pivotal step change in the direction of PFC or because it’s so close to Christmas, simply a good day to bury bad news, who knows.
What is for sure, we will have a clearer picture of the intentions regarding the future direction of travel, although I anticipate not everything will be black or white, hence my posts today relating to future possibilities, which there are plenty of good options to protect stakeholder’s interests. My posts today have been more than usual as I now have time as I’m finished with work until the New Year and hypothesising regarding the future for PFC. My own thoughts are based on purely past experiences and should not be taken as advice, please do your own research and feel comfortable with any exposure you have with PFC, and any share for that matter. I’m well under with my PFC investment, and far more exposure than I would like, trying to catch that knife.
My own experiences relate to work involved in financial aspects of Amec, Amec Foster Wheeler, and now Wood, so if anyone knows the history, quite a lot has transpired over the years, so you get used to the financial apparatus of a business and the sectors they operate in. The financial apparatus is the living breathing part of a business, but rarely ever seen, until either good or bad news lands. Over time you get to know the indicators and tools at a companies disposal to correct, mitigate, and move forward with the company health, and as you can appreciate there have been many of these capital events in the companies I’ve been involved with, not so much the buyouts, mergers or take overs, but the smaller business units or divisions that periodically, and in fact very frequently get bought and sold at the whim of the CEO, board, and market forces. I’ve had to sign many confidentiality agreements over the years, I’ve myself been in closed periods of share trading activity on multiple occasions, and even had to sign the official secrets act, and I’ve never held any senior management positions, I’m just a cog in the financial conduits and workings of an O&G/EPC service sector company.
Therefore, I look forward to next week, and whatever transpires, and due to past experiences, I’ve got grounds for optimism in the future how this can play out for PFC.
GLA
If remember from others comments the value was a bit suspect due to short to medium timeframe limitations of the asset, but I suppose it's horses for courses if someone else believes the asset is worth buying? At the moment, I have everything crossed for a O&M sale and I admit we may not see any indication at all of steps being taken to sell O&M next week, that might actually be sometime in the early part of next year, if at all, and that is if O&M is genuinely available, like recent articles suggest? There may be a bidding war, hence the possibility for being made public, let’s throw out a line (for sale sign) and see what bites?
GLA
O&M has huge costs and the problems associated with staff etc, even though the margins are greater, is it worth it, especially if there is a different strategic vision to embrace the future. There is no need to dilute under this scenario. However, if the update appears to convey no solid determining vision with some, but not catastrophic dilution, I have powder dry to throw more in the ring for the long road back.
Every time COP comes around we always seems to be at a vital pivot moment. This years it seems greatly amplified by the macro events but also COP itself being held in the UAE and lobbying for vital word changes, and a push back, with doing away with fossil fuels all together and now a more balanced view acceptable transition was of achieving global emission and pollution goals, instead of the myopic mass hysteria of the push to net zero, without doing the necessary due diligence first of the impact of moving too fast, too soon. Common sense appears to finally prevailing. However, PFC are now, due to the balance sheet concerns at a potential major pivot point in their history, and it would seem to embrace the future and the way the industry is moving, is the correct time to fully pivot and reinvent itself. What better way could a CEO actually make his mark, albeit it will be the II and major private shareholders that will ultimately decide PFC's fate, not the little PI's or even schoolground bullies, who are all short by the way. I don't see any of the major II or cornerstone investors taking any ultra large reduction in holdings, and they will also not want their own holdings to be diluted rendering their investments worthless. The only acceptable way out, and protection, for all stakeholders is to correct the balance sheet with undue or as little, or even no dilution, by selling O&M and then go again, but under a different vision & strategy. A major dilution event only needs to happen if there are no other choices, of which there are fair few alternatives before arriving at the worst case scenario, I just don't see it, I don't believe any shorts believe that, they have taken their chance at the opportune time in the financial calendar and have ran with it. The music stops for the shorts next week, not the business.
GLA
SS2020, not necessarily a long road but once the decks are cleared and as Onwards alludes to a new vision, strategy, one with less costs, and more agile. I would then foresee the road being one determined by Enterprise Value, and get it cheap while you can?
GLA
But let's at least put to bed, PFC ain't going bust, don't let the shorts play of human emotions.
GLA