The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Yawn
GLA
The quote states simulations of 'at least' 600 billion CFA, and as per Harry's conversion 'at least' a billion $
GLA
FYI:
https://www.dakaractu.com/Petrofac-prestataire-de-Service-de-BP-C-est-l-expertise-locale-qui-est-sacrifiee-Moustapha-Diakhate_a243023.html
The provision of operational services for the GTA project entrusted to Petrofac, an English company, is the talk of the town. Indeed, Moustapha Diakhaté reveals: “BP has just awarded Petrofac, an English company specializing in oilfield services, with a super four-year contract for the provision of operational services – offshore and onshore – linked to the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim natural gas project. (GTA), located between Mauritania and Senegal. A hard blow, very hard for local operators and of course our local content."
According to the ex-Cons Spec PM-Expert and Infras Consultant, "With this contract, 60% of the services within the scope of local content are unduly entrusted to PETROFAC. Valued at least at 600 billion CFA francs according to the simulations, this leonine contract between English companies on our soil and our resources covers a wide range of services", he explains in a note used by Dakaractu.
The latter emphasizes that "it is local expertise that is sacrificed", because "among these services, we find the management and supervision of operations both on land (onshore) and at sea (offshore), the provision of qualified personnel, as well as the maintenance of equipment etc...."
GLA
Are we all assuming Schroders shares ended up with?
1) solely in retail PI's hands
2) a combination of retail PI's hands + shorters hedging both ways
3) part snapped up by existing cornerstone investor, with TR's still not disclosed
4) part snapped up by new cornerstone investor, with TR's still not disclosed
5) some of the above
6) all of the above
GLA
A bit fed up of the price manipulation and posted this on WG, coincidently under a subject matter of "Free Float". At least this first crappy week of 2024 is out of the way, couldn't really have gone much worse for PI's:
Hopefully in the not too distant future the market will realise and stop beating down important companies (like WG & PFC) because they can with any quasi semi-justified narrative they wish to run with. The market has to acknowledge that during the current and future renewable energy transition that these companies are intrinsically linked to a better future and the maintaining of our current standing of living alongside the expectations of us Humans.
This is not overegging or being melodramatic in the least. Who does the market actually expect to perform the requisite transition to a cleaner safer future, are we suddenly going to have a new breed of EPC experts, the answer is no. Companies like WG & PFC, et al will continue to be the go to guys to maintain our future standard of living.
Therefore, the market should place a higher value on these companies, thus attracting more investment, highlighting who is actually driving and going to perform future engineering challenges and change for ultimately the advancement as a species, and to push back on the old fossil fuel dogma surrounding these companies, which in part is still driving the ridiculous ESG investment driven model, as we have more than gone past both tipping points of acceptance and adoption of cleaner renewable technology and peak oil.
It's not too much to state that EPC providers are the backbone of the way civilization has advanced in the past and if we all want to continue to advance as a human species then the same EPC companies will be the ones to propel the future, and accordingly should have higher values attributed to them, due to their importance to human society past, present, and future.
GLA
Hopefully in the not too distant future the market will realise and stop beating down important companies (like WG & PFC) because they can with any quasi semi-justified narrative they wish to run with. The market has to acknowledge that during the current and future renewable energy transition that these companies are intrinsically linked to a better future and the maintaining of our current standing of living alongside the expectations of us Humans.
This is not overegging or being melodramatic in the least. Who does the market actually expect to perform the requisite transition to a cleaner safer future, are we suddenly going to have a new breed of EPC experts, the answer is no. Companies like WG & PFC, et al will continue to be the go to guys to maintain our future standard of living.
Therefore, the market should place a higher value on these companies, thus attracting more investment, highlighting who is actually driving and going to perform future engineering challenges and change for ultimately the advancement as a species, and to push back on the old fossil fuel dogma surrounding these companies, which in part is still driving the ridiculous ESG investment driven model, as we have more than gone past both tipping points of acceptance and adoption of cleaner renewable technology and peak oil.
It's not too much to state that EPC providers are the backbone of the way civilization has advanced in the past and if we all want to continue to advance as a human species then the same EPC companies will be the ones to propel the future, and accordingly should have higher values attributed to them, due to their importance to human society past, present, and future.
GLA
The company has to give the market something to think about, similar now at PFC. WG's trading update next week so there is a possibility there may be something in that which the marker is not anticipating, or there may not.
Only super positive news flow will permanently push this (and PFC) to new higher highs, but based on history it actually only be higher lows.
Whatever is to come in 2024, it surely has to be better than the past few years when the SP of companies like WG and PFC behave as AIM stocks on a daily basis.
GLA
Fidelity do seem confident enough for the future though.
GLA
Trading update next week.
&
As per Mary's post, Fidelity have upped their holding dramatically, probably had to push up the Bid to entice some sellers at higher levels to grab the shares to fill the orders for Fidelity? They certainly had some of mine as I trimmed a little at the higher price, but left a few for next week in case we get another rise in to the TU?
GLA
.......and also read this if you haven't already done so:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Flash-Boys-Michael-Lewis/dp/0141981032
GLA
FYI:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61Jw7Pbi2qE
Take a look, a good Ridley Scott film also.
GLA
Does that mean from tomorrow we are in a closed period then?
GLA
Like WG, Once PFC’s restructuring is complete I would have to think they will also move to quarterly updates, just like WG, this should stop future short attacks once the company is on a stronger footing.
We await that major PFC inflection point!
GLA
I am still invested in WG, but trimmed my holding dramatically before Apollo walked away as I’d already made my money on WG, then started to accumulate more in PFC, as per the reasons previously stated. I expect good things from WG in 2024 also, but as a pure binary play PFC offers the chance of a much greater upside in my opinion? However, there is always the unknown, and WG has a trading update in January, so you’ll notice the slight uplift in SP over there, I’m assuming it’s based on that and nothing else?
GLA
Trax, you’re going to have to suck it up like the rest of us.
I was 25k down, now only 10k down, and I’m virtually all in. I was nervy but not overly so as if you know how the game works, things will turn once Company is on a stronger footing, which the Shorts are trying to force in a roundabout way, but taking advantage in the meantime, thus providing liquidity and a chance to not only average down but accumulate, for the anticipated turnaround.
As stated, I work for WG, and PFC is about 1 year to 1.5 years behind where WG where at, exactly same, virtually mirrored in that respect. So I see light at the end of the tunnel, but nothing is a quick fix. Once you accept that things become easier and more forward looking. WG is also recruiting heavily in the ME, the worm is turning, it just takes time.
GLA
The shorters will be increasing to hedge and go long i.e. suppress the share long enough with existing borrowed shares to then buy enough to mitigate and then go long, which would potentially offset any losses incurred due to their poor shorting. This will take a couple of months to work and for the shorts they will try to manage the SP in the meantime, and they will hold sway and power over PI during this time, unless that is some more company statements cause a severe +ve event which the shorts are incapable of holding back, that's the game in town now, who's bluffing the shorts or the Company. The answer is the smaller shorts who are over leveraged and exposed to any positive Company news flow......hopefully there will be many which will then push the SP to a major long term inflection point, which even though recent weeks there has been a SP turnaround, we are still yet to arrive at that inflection point, which will be confirmation of financial restructure and/or non-core sale, and/or part core sale.....it's coming, MW have assumed things will now be progressing based on the December company statements. Question is, will those still holding major shorting positions have enough time to cover and hedge to go long?
GLA
FYI, more press/industry coverage, can only be a good thing:
https://renewablesnow.com/news/petrofac-hitachi-energy-awarded-nederwiek-1-in-tennets-2gw-framework-844488/
GLA
Added more myself on the relative weakness in to the close, it would be rude not to and finally bring the average down below 50p. It should be set up for a good 2024, with the usual games being played. We will just have to sit it out as unfortunately us mere PI's will not drive the next major gear change, we can only hope to keep the Shorts honest in that respect. It all comes down to what the business say next and hopefully they have been working hard over the holiday season and like the 20th trading announcement stated they will only make statements at the appropriate time. I think this was a nod to market fluctuations over the past few months, this confirms that the market has no special inside information and has now twice been majorly caught off guard this past year, lets hope for similar in the New Year!
We should already expect the bones of the re-structure of the financials to be somewhat restructured within a plan, how much of that is made public and when will be the key. Personally, I would like to see this announced alongside or after a further large contract win, thus further underpinning the re-structure with the outstanding backlog of work and aim for the milestone statement of a backlog $10 billion, well they have been hiring like crazy. Also, I’ve not yet mentioned asset sales, as we all know this will greatly help, and after the announcement of the hiring of Moelis and Teneo we should also expect progress has been made in these arears to either fully dispose of certain assets and/or have a strategic non-controlling (at this point) investment to a ‘component’ of the business (hopefully O&M), Moelis and Teneo certainly have form for this in the MENA region and are trusted by ADNOC among others, go figure.
Everyone have a great New Year, stay safe, stay well, and look forward to a great 2024 and beyond, and that’s assuming a bid for the whole company doesn’t land after the strategic and financial review has been completed?
GLA
FYI: Additional articles you've probably already seen, no doubt off the back of the stalled Santa rally:
https://www.ogv.energy/news-item/petrofac-hitachi-bag-another-contract-for-tennet-s-dutch-offshore-converter-stations
https://www.rigzone.com/news/hitachi_petrofac_get_2nd_contract_under_14b_tennet_power_agreement-28-dec-2023-175189-article/
GLA
FYI, something to ponder over Xmas:
https://news.uk.cityam.com/story/2094614/content.html
GLA