gardengirl - charting23 Jan 2013 20:33
Hello GG. Good for you looking at candlesticks etc. It is always useful to have a look at a way to improve our investment performance.
I have spent many hours and evenings looking into candlesticks, parabolic wotsits, different indicators and averages to the point of brain exhaustion. Having done all my usual evening checks and basic research I would then go deeper and deeper into analysis. All those different candlesticks and their meanings nevermind anything else. It can be a useful and interesting exercise. It may help our buy and sell decisions and timing, providing you are in a position to trade and not being stuck at work.
Studying charts etc. can become adictive. Does it reward the time and effort we put in?, do we need to study the charts so hard?, is our present investment strategy working or not?. Charts can send conflicting signs. An unexpected RNS can/will have far more effect on the share price, confirming or denying a chart pattern. Such a RNS can blow out of the water all the hard work and time we have put in.
Has charting improved my share performance?............(roll of the drums)..................no......no it hasn't. I put so much time in, looked at so many things, stayed up late so many nights. I found it hard going. So.....I largely gave up. The only charts I tend to use now is the main sp chart giving general trend and strength and as you know the 3, 6 and 12 month chart using 9, 20 and 50 day moving averages.
Candlesticks.......are they reliable?. Well, up to a point. But we both know there can be more buyers than sellers yet the sp falls, and vice versa. Looking at the candlestick chart for the day it will suggest that sellers had the upper hand and will support negativity. On the face of it that would appear correct but it contradicts the trades (unless they are wrong).
Bear in mind charts always show what has happened in the past and not the future. They can show a trend though which can be very useful.
Far more important (imo and from my experience) is using the Zulu Principle; yes the PEG, EPS, PE etc, studying the RNS in detail, the outlook and the Chairmans statement. Any charting must be done in conjunction with the above; don't take short cuts thinking charting can replace the above; it mustn't.
Some chartists use charts to identify trading patterns. If it works for them then good. However, I would suggest that if we look hard enough we can probably find patterns most anywhere.
I am reminded of the quote from the Z.P by Gary Player, the golfer. He said "the more I practise, the luckier I get". I have become far "luckier" by studying the fundamentals etc., rather than charting. Don't let me put you off though GG. All I would say, friendly advice intended, is don't overdo the charting. Give it a go by all means; you will probably find it easier than me. If you find charting difficult don't worry, join the club!. Just find the chocolate!.
CM