Member Info for CHEQUEMATE

So is the rise in the FTSE today the start of a sustained recovery or just another rally in a general downward moving market?. On the basis of my previous post, I decided to sell my remaining holding here this morning. I will sit on the side lines and see what happens. INL will remain on my watch list to re-enter at the appropriate time. I made a reasonable profit here and wasn't prepared to see the rest of it being whittled away. It makes up for some of the small losses made elsewhere. Regards and good luck. CM

Agree BJ, but I don't think we are at the bottom yet. . May be a further 10%. REDD is still on my watchlist and if it falls to around 150p then I will probably be back in. Of course, it may well not fall that far. Regards CM

Thanks for post Bazz. I believe the market is probably way over reacting to world affairs. There is a real danger that we can talk ourselves into a recession or whatever when there is truly no need. However, the market is the market. I have been wondering how much lower stocks will go and of course have really little no more idea than anyone else. However, I believe there may be another 10% with brief rallies. On that basis, am I happy/prepared to watch this and other shares fall further before the true value is recognised?. For me to hold is all very well, and may be the right descision, but the share price may fall back closer to 70p first. Difficult descision, but unfortunately I see more downside risk in the immediate future. If I do exit the market then I fully expect to re-enter at some time; it is just too hard to stay out for long. BOL to you and all holders. CM

Hello there BT, hope all is well down there in Newmarket. thanks for your post. I agreed with your comments but would like to add one or two of my own. Re oil. Yes, I can't understand why the positives are not sung to the roof rather than the negatives. There is massive over supply as we know which is pushing down the price. I think this is deliberate by the Saudis. I believe they got seriously worried by the Americans producing their own oil cheaply by fracking. So, by openng the taps more and driving the oil price lower, it made it less economical and viable for the Americans to produce their own oil. Keep it up long enough and companies will experience serious financial pain and many will go out of business. I know a lot of jobs are being lost or are in danger of being lost here in the UK which is a worry for the local economy if not more generally. I have another theory, which may appear a bit off the wall. But, it is the US presidential year. How much clout does that nutter Trump hold?. Is it possible he can affect the markets to drive them down and then turn round and blame the fall on Barrack Obama and the Democrats?. Wouldn't surprise me. I am sure he has influence in high places!. Conspiracy theory and I am quite serious. No, no share is immune from the carnage going on. It is so hard to see profit built up over such a long time, wiped out over a week!. There is so much going for GBG and many other shares yet they have got thumped on nothing more than sentiment. It does and will throw up excellent buying opportunities in due course. I have reviewed my portfolio and have sold out of 2 holdings over the last couple of days and reducing my holdings elsewhere. With the market likely to fall further yet and maybe by a good deal, possibly to close to 5000 FTSE, then I may cut further and sit on the sidelines with a warchest. What I fear (?) is that the market, commentators, banks etc. may talk us into a situation which could be avoided totally. Perhaps that is the market looking to make the best for themselves. Cynical, oh yes. China - growth of 6.9%?, bet it isn't. I wouldn't be surprised if it is closer to 4% in reality. Hope you have plenty of Jura BT. May as well enjoy something. My Mum is in pretty good form thanks for asking. The canary seems to be ruling the house, or should that be roost. None stop singing. He has given my Mum a new lease of life and is great company for her. I can rest a lot easier these days, and certainly from a year ago when the picture was pretty gloomy. Best wishes to you and Mrs BT CM

Very true. Difficult to believe just how quickly shares can fall back purely due to market sentiment "sell everything". If our share hasn't got hit yesterday or today, then it probably will be tomorrow. This is a good company, well run and paying a healthy dividend with rising profits etc. That is not enough at such times as this though, as I have found out with my holdings. Most are down over 10% over the last week and there is likely to be more downwards movement before the market settles. That in time will lead to some excellent buying opportunities. I have sold 2 of my holdings over the last couple of days and have reduced holdings in 2 others. The way the market is heading I may well sell out completely to await better times. There will be rallies which I think investors will use to sell out at a better price, before the market heads down again. At some time the bottom will be hit, but I for one have little if any idea where that will be. If this falls as much as it has done from its 52 week high, then it will give me the opportunity to buy back in at what I sold out at. For those of you invested here, I hope that doesn't happen. gla CM

With Wall Street unable to hold onto its early gains yesterday and just stay positive, the markets took that as a bad sign over night in Asia and throughout Europe today. Minds concentrated on the negatives yet again, the huge oil surplus, falliing oil prices, the fear of global slowdown in growth etc, etc. and fear has driven the market way lower again today. Despite all the positives that INL has to offer, its' fundamentals, results, potential etc., the share price fell badly again today. I don't see anything positive within the market right now with only brief rallies in an otherwise downward spiral at least in the short term. It was with that mindset that I decided to sell 1/2 of my holdings in INL today, along with 1/2 of my holdings in another company and sell out completely of another. I am seriously considering selling out totally tomorrow to preserve capital and put it in a warchest for better times. There will be some real bargains when the markets finally settle down. gla CM

Hi DLUK. I decided to sell out today of CAKE. The market is looking very poor again and I can see nothing obvious to change its' sentinent in the near future, with any rallies likely to be short term and maybe what is called a suckers rally. I think yesterday and Monday was probably so. I have also reduced my holdings in 2 of my remaining 3 shares and may very well sell out totally tomorrow. If I am lucky, I may just be getting out with either a small profit overall or close to breakeven. As far as CAKE is concerned; I do not have a problem with the company, what it does, its' fundamentals and I think longer term or even mid term it will do ok. However, there may well be further downward movement first, so I want to preserve some capital, put it in a warchest and await a better time to re-enter the market. Somehow this retrace, fall back, call it what we like, feels quite different from other market corrections in the last couple of years. I hope to be proved wrong. None of us knows quite where the market will fall fo, but it looks like they could fall a good deal more, taking the good as well as the bad and ugly with it. Most shares have lost in excess of 10% since this time last week. Some have lost considerably more. The way the market is going I feel CAKE may fall closer to 300p before it stabilizes. Should it fall that far (another 12%) then I may have another look. Once the market finally settles, there will be some bargains out there; but for the moment many are thinking, why buy now when stocks are likely to get cheaper yet. I will drop you a line still, despite no longer being a holder here. The very best of luck CM

Good evening DLUK A better day for CAKE. I shouldn't really be here to be honest, didn't expect to be. I set a stop loss for yesterday at 345p. It didn't execute. Reason given was the share had not hit the stop loss despite several tries!. So it was cancelled at 8.20 am. I checked my portfolio during the day only to see CAKE was still hanging in there!. As it happens it looks like I got away with it. I could have easily sold out manually but with the share price seemingly stable in the 330s I held off. Sometimes with shares we just need some good luck!. A far better day pretty much all round. However, the market is very volatile and today may be no more than a relief rally. We need to be careful that we are not caught out in a suckers rally where folk think the worst is now over and go plunging more into shares only to get caught by another leg downwards. Don't be surprised if investors sell into any rally. It takes time for sentiment to change and I don't see a great deal has changed. Not the time to get emotionally attached to any share. Interested to read you are "scaling" into oil, FTSE and S&P500. I have never been close to investing into the S&P. Although I have held foreign shares they have only been ones registered in this country and quoted on our indicies. As far as oil goes; well, I understand why, you have far more nerves and courage than me. I see the sector falling further and would caution against any small oily, especially against any not making a profit. A bargain may well become a better bargain. If I was going to invest in an oily then I would choose a major paying a good dividend. They are unlikely to go bust, indeed if they do then the whole market will be in serious trouble. I see many of the smaller ones hitting the buffers and probably before the year end. I have held shares in oilies in the past, with as far as I can remember only 1, perhaps 2 making me any profit, EME and HAWK. I got my timing right by selling before they went boobies up!. "You know it is time to sell when shoeshine boys give you stock tips"......yes, quite apt. And yes it may be (alost) time to buy when everyone is saying sell. "Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful". Thanks for your link DLUK. I will try and drop you a line sometime soon. It can be useful to have contact off the boards. Easier to ask questions and get views. Good luck (but don't leave everything to luck) and regards CM

A far better day pretty much all round. However, the market is very volatile and today may be no more than a relief rally. We need to be careful that we are not caught out in a suckers rally where folk think the worst is now over and go plunging more into shares only to get caught by another leg downwards. Don't be surprised if investors sell into any rally. It takes time for sentiment to change and I don't see a great deal has changed. Not the time to get emotionally attached to any share. gla CM

Decided to take a small loss at 307.9 this morning. I had considered it yesterday around 325 but gave it a little more time. I don't have an issue with MSLH and more than likely it will move higher again. However, in these difficult times for the market generally I have decided to take some money off the table and await better times. If the share moves up from here, then all well and good, so be it. I wish all invested here the best of luck. MSLH will now go on one of my watchlists. Regards CM

When this downturn is over I believe there will be plenty of buying opportunities in many shares. It may be like being a child in a sweetshop. The sooner the better. CM

Sorry to see it has been GBG s turn to get a kicking today. The only consolation I can get out of that is that it shows even the best and strongest shares are not immune from the market down turn. Seems to me the market has been casting its' eye for those companies that have escaped their mauling and have spotted GBG. When this is over I suppose it will lead to buying opportunities we wouldn't have expected at such levels just at the begining of the year. Difficult to keep ones nerves at such times. As usual, I believe the market has over reacted and over sold much of the market. When the tide goes out it tends to take all boats with it, even the good ones. The good ones tend to stay afloat though and should return when the next tide returns; possibly stronger. Good luck and regards CM

re "not sure what is going on". It is mostly the state of the market at present and is not stock specific. A vast majority, if not all shares, regardless of quality, fundamentals etc. have been badly hit over the last 3 trading days. When the tide goes out it takes all the boats with it. If, when, should the oil price steady and news out of China is more positive or at least less gloomy, then the market may pick up. Quite when that will be is anyones guess. It seems the market is looking for reasons to be gloomy. And no, we can't argue with the market. Well, yes we can, but generally we come out 2nd best. Very difficult keeping our nerves at such times as now. We never know if this downturn is short term or something more. And it does seem at times that whatever I do it is bound to be wrong!. Good luck all CM

If only investing was that simple we would all be millionaires. Good to see some recovery today on an otherwise red day pretty much across the market regardless of how strong any share is or the companys' fundamentals. That is mightily frustrating when so much time has gone into research and watching profit go within a matter of a few days or a week. Regards CM

Can this/will this keep hold of its gains today by day end?!!!. A rare sight of blue sky amongst todays grey clouds on the market. CM

Sorry, last paragraph should have read 1000 shares, not 100 shares. CM

I wonder what this coming weeks holds for us?. Lets hope for something far better than late last week!. I/we have had the weekend to mull things over as to what to do, if anything. Do we hold, sell, reduce our holdings or be out right brave and buy?. I can argue both to hold and to sell, not so sure as to buy. Experience has told me that to sell at such times can be wrong, as it has been quoted to me before "buy when others are fearful" etc. And that has been proved true on a number of occasions. Take 2 occasions. I sold out of HAYT, twice, only to see the share recover and trade well above where it had been previously. Also GBG, sold out October 2014 at around 140-142 after a fall back from 180. Now it is around 270!!. So is this time any different?. Well, the macro economics do seem more serious in some respects, with the issue being the low oil price as well as Chinese low growth. Previously it has been the Greek crisis, the fiscal cliff, problems in the Eurozone, oh and the Chinese low growth!. On each occasion the market recovered. What has not helped has been the RBS statement saying investors should sell everything mostly due to the market about to crash!. Well, that doesn't 'help anybody and just leads to panic causing the market to fall, which leads to panic etc., vicious circle. We need someone to come out and state the other side of the argument. So frustrating that it takes so long to build up profit and yet just a matter of days to see most of it wiped out. After the RBS article I really should have set some stop losses to help protect some of my profits. Hindsight is a wonderful thing. It isn't possible for me to keep an eye on the market all day due to work. What I found on Friday, (day off) was that when I was doing a dummy sell on my holdings in INL was that I could get a better price to sell 100 shares than I could on anything more - 81p to 79p. Was that a sign of something?. Come day end it was the sudden fall off in share price that took my breath away. Had the day ended with the share price at 80p I would have been disappointed, but at 77p I felt very uneasy as to what could be ahead. Guess we will wait and see. Any views out there?. Regards CM

Hello DLUK. Hmm, interesting and challenging times. Not sure quite what to do here. With the general market in turmoil all shares (just about) are taking a hammering. I think I got complacent with CAKE, taking my eye off the situation. In retrospect I should have sold at over 400p - easy to say in retrospect. The degree of the fall is what has caught me out. Really I should have set a stop loss after seeing the RBS comment about investors should sell everything almost. It seems the market isn't interested in fundamentals and growth right now. I have a feeling that CAKE is heading lower before it moves North again; I just don't see any reason for it bucking the general trend. So, come Monday I may sell all of my 369 shares (£1000 invested first time around), take any profit i can and wait for another time to invest. The alternative is to take a deep breath and try and sit the storm out. When the tide goes out it takes all boats with it. I had hoped that this reversal in the market may be just the same as we saw in October last year and in 2014 when I sold out of everything only to buy back in at a slightly higher price. However, this may be different. There may be a rally but something has to change market sentiment - the Chinese slowdown, the falling oil price (over supply and weakening demand it seems). There is an index called "The Baltic Dry Index", which measures the cost of shipping raw materials and is a bellwether for global activity. It crashed ahead of Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008 and has just dropped below 400 for the first time since records began in 1985. A little known index maybe but important.. Worth Googling it and read comments. As far as the share price being favourable; well, it is more favourable now than just a week ago. Not my only share to have got a kicking this last couple of days. I haven't had much invested here, but the value has fallen by 23% from its high. Better value to come on this one I think. Incidentally, ex divi date was yesterday which wouldn't have helped the share price much, taking it down a tad usually. Good luck CM

You made a good call Herbie. Yes, a big move up can be a selling signal, particularly when the share price rises above the upper Bollinger Band. I saw that and expected a retrace to a degree but not the hit it has taken over the last 2 days. With the share price now being below the lower Bollinger Band, it could at another time indicate a move back up is on the cards. At another time because outside factors are in play all round it seems. Never wrong in taking profits in this market but the sudden fall is what can take the breath away. It feels like coming home to find you have been robbed whilst at work. I am still in profit, but only just - similar story to my other holdings from what was looking quite rosey at the start of the week. Just possibly the market will be better on Monday. The DOW was down by more than what it finished at whilst the London market was open. But perhaps I am just grasping at straws and the best course of action is to sell everything to preserve what I have left. Think you have possibly answered a post of mine on Stockopedia earlier, so thanks for that. Same initials but different user name for me. Regards CM

Gee, that has been some kicking today and yesterday!. Deciding to sell is ALWAYS the difficult decision. It is only on reflection we know if we got it right or not. So well done Herbie. Wednesday it all seemed ok with no or little indication of what the next 2 days would bring. I don't see the fundamentals have changed much for INL. Not top up time yet. Hold our nerve time if we can. Never easy. GLA CM