Member Info for Che7win

What’s that got to do with our fixed price gas contracts that rise with inflation each year?

GGG,

You’re all talk and no action. Your rants have done much damage to keep shareholder sentiment low. I’m sure most long term shareholders like me don’t read your long winded posts. At best I glance over them and ignore as it’s just mostly nonsense.

One hint I’d give you, cut your posts down to 5-6 lines at most, most people can’t be bothered reading repeated rants and you’re wasting your life repeating the same bitter nonsense every day.

You have very little wisdom if you ever did own the shareholding you declared to have shot yourself and other shareholders in the foot continually. Very strange.

I’m here to reply on the EGM comments, I don’t think an EGM is the right time to do now, however I would be supportive of leadership changes whatever way that happens as the current leadership have not done many things right lately or executed many things well.

I do suspect though that Central Block is a hidden gem, and we will see positive news on it over the coming quarters, but that will be in spite of leaderships failings.

Back to lurking, don’t bother replying.

For the rest of the posters here…..PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE stop giving GGG your time of day. Just ignore this avatars posts, they don’t bring anything positive do the discussion.

Yes, that would be correct, management suspended the share at 25p, then they did a fund raising including themselves around 7p before bringing back from suspension.

Still not sure how that was engineered…..

It’s probably worth double, certainly not 7p imho.

The share register change is a strategic shift, bringing in a strong Nigerian local partner, and dilution is less than 7%. Overall, makes sense to me.

If we assume:

* Underlying share price = 7 p

* Strike = 19.2 p

* Term ~ 3.7 years

* Volatility - 60-70% (typical for AIM small caps)

* Risk-free rate ~4%, Then a rough Black-Scholes valuation gives a theoretical value of about 1 - 1.5 p per warrant, which matches the RNS-implied price of ~1.3 p.

So the ~£1.3 million buyback price looks reasonable and internally consistent - essentially paying the "option time value" to remove ~101 million potential future shares.

Not a bad update, getting rid of the warrants at an implied cost of about £1.3m

I know the accounts are messy, but we’re on a current P/E of less than 1

If H1 profit (US$101.5 m) continued at the same level in H2, you might project US$203 m for the full year.

Dividing by ~1.61 billion shares gives ~ US$0.126 per share for FY2025.

If we convert roughly into £ (assuming £1 ≈ US$1.28 – approximate) that’s ~ £0.098 per share.

If the current share price is ~£0.07 (≈ 7 p) then:

• Estimated full-year EPS ~ £0.098

• Implied P/E ~ 7p ÷ 9.8p ≈ 0.7×

Given the above, a more realistic full-year EPS (adjusting for one-off gains) might be lower, perhaps around US$0.07-0.10/sh (~£0.055-£0.077/sh).

At a share price of ~£0.07, that implies a P/E of roughly 0.9× to 1.3×.

4. Cash flow sequencing matters

The buyback is conditional and not immediate — it depends on cash generation and approvals (up to March 2026).

So:

• Now: They raise equity to support refinancing and working capital.

• Later: If receivables come in and cash builds, they’ll use surplus liquidity to buy back shares.

It’s essentially two different timeframes:

• Raise capital now → strengthen balance sheet.

• Use excess cash later → reduce share count / return capital.

⸻

🧮 5. Mechanically, the combination can be almost net-neutral

Shares issued: 161 m

Buyback cap: 143.6 m

→ Net new shares if fully executed ≈ +17.4 m (only ~1% increase).

So the structure says:

“We’re swapping out part of our shareholder base, not massively diluting you.”

That makes sense when one large investor (NIPCO) is coming in, and another group (EBT, possibly some existing institutions) is being bought out.

⸻

⚖️ 6. The optics: unusual, but can be smart

In finance, simultaneous issuance and buyback can look odd — it’s usually viewed as poor capital discipline.

But in special situations like Savannah’s (strategic partner entry + shareholder reshuffle + highly leveraged balance sheet), it’s actually quite logical:

• The placing aligns a key local partner.

• The buyback shows management’s conviction in value and controls dilution.

• The combination helps de-risk debt refinancing.

It’s less “we need cash” and more “we’re reorganising ownership and signalling confidence”.

⸻

🚨 The caveat

All this works only if Savannah delivers on:

• Debt refinancing (closing by end-2025), and

• Receivable collections (to fund the buyback).

If those slip, the market could view the dual announcement as inconsistent (“why promise a buyback when you just raised equity?”).

At first glance, fundraising and a buyback at the same time look contradictory.

One issues shares (diluting holders) and the other retires shares (anti-dilutive).

But in Savannah Energy’s (SAVE) case, there’s a strategic rationale — it’s not financial whiplash, it’s a deliberate balance-sheet and shareholder base reshaping exercise.

Let’s unpack it carefully:

⸻

🧩 1. The company is reshaping its capital structure, not just “raising cash”

Savannah’s Nigerian gas business generates solid cash flow, but the corporate structure and debt profile are complex.

They have:

• ~$630 m of net debt (as of Sept 2025)

• Large receivables (~$493 m)

• Only ~$101 m cash at the holding-company level

• Multiple local and offshore lenders

So management’s key goal is to re-align cash, debt, and equity ownership so that:

• They can finish refinancing the expensive Nigerian debt, and

• They can bring in a strategic local partner (NIPCO) to strengthen political and operational positioning.

Hence, the “fundraising” part isn’t primarily about plugging a liquidity hole — it’s about bringing NIPCO on board and giving them equity exposure at the plc level.

⸻

💡 2. The “fundraising” = bringing in NIPCO strategically

• NIPCO (a Nigerian downstream & power company) is investing ~£11.3 m in new shares and buying existing ones — total commitment ~£28.7 m for a ~19–21% stake.

• Savannah gains:

• Local credibility and industry connections

• A long-term Nigerian anchor shareholder

• Political capital to support gas/power expansion

• A cash inflow at plc level to support refinancing and projects

That’s not a random fundraise — it’s a strategic placement.

3. The buyback = neutralising dilution & rewarding holders

At the same time, Savannah announced a conditional share buyback of up to 143.6 m shares at 7 p (the same price as the placing).

That does two things:

1. Signals undervaluation

• Management is saying: “We’re willing to buy our own shares at the same price we just sold them to a new partner.”

• It sends a confidence message that 7 p is fair (or cheap).

2. Balances dilution

• Even though they issue 161 m new shares, the buyback can retire nearly the same amount later — effectively replacing the shareholder mix without growing the total share count much.

• It also provides an exit mechanism for older institutional holders or the Employee Benefit Trust (EBT), rather than forcing them to sell into the market.

So, in simple terms:

“We’re bringing in a new strategic investor (via new shares) and tidying up the register (via buyback), so that long-term holders and the partner both end up with meaningful stakes — without leaving messy overhangs.”

Net immediate share count impact after the announced buyback (if fully executed)

• Enlarged shares (post both tranches): 1,910,654,235. 

• If the 143,565,582 share buyback is fully completed, pro-forma shares outstanding = 1,910,654,235 − 143,565,582 = 1,767,088,653. 

Net increase in shares vs the pre-March position (1,610,615,111):

1,767,088,653 − 1,610,615,111 = 156,473,542 additional shares (≈**+9.72%** increase in shares outstanding versus the June 26 base). (this accounts for the March tranche, the new financing and the buyback). 

If the buyback is completed it largely offsets the immediate primary issuance (7p in / 7p out), but the aggregate effect of the March tranche + new financing + other secondary trades still meaningfully increases free float (see numbers above). 

⸻

The warrant cancellation — immediate effect

• Warrants cancelled: 101,113,992 shares worth of potential future dilution (these warrants were exercisable at 19.2p and expiring in 2029, per the RNS). Canceling them removes that potential ~5.3% over the enlarged share count (101,113,992 / 1,910,654,235 ≈ 5.29%). That lowers potential future dilution risk. 

Cash / proceeds / who pays what

• The Financing itself raises ≈£11.3m (161,061,510 × 7p). The RNS says this will be subscribed in full by NIPCO. 

• Separately, NIPCO is acquiring existing March-issue shares and buying on the secondary market — total stated NIPCO cash commitment ~£28.7m (primary + secondaries). 

• The EBT/management transactions (CEO, EBT share sales/purchases) transfer cash between parties (some are primary purchases by the CEO, some are purchases from EBT) and therefore slightly change who holds the stock, not the company’s cash position (except the primary tranches). 

⸻

What this means — interpretation & implications

1. Balance of dilution vs shareholder return mechanics

• The company issues new stock at 7p to bring in NIPCO (strategic investor) and presumably to shore up liquidity to pursue near-term BD opportunities. That increases share count. The conditional buyback at the same price aims to give flexibility to repurchase shares and potentially neutralise some dilution — but it’s conditional on approvals and depends on cash collections/arbital proceeds and management decisions. 

2. Strategic value of NIPCO

• NIPCO is described as a diversified Nigerian energy conglomerate and brings local industry ties and potential deal flow. For a Nigeria-heavy operator this can be strategically meaningful (access to relationships, local market credibility, potential offtake/partnering). The RNS frames NIPCO’s entry as value-accretive. 

3. Warrant cancellation reduces future overhang

• Canceling ~101m warrants removes ~5.3% of potential future dilution (on the enlarged basis). That’s accretive to remaining shareholders and helps offset the issuance impact somewhat. 

The factual headline numbers (from the RNS)

• New equity financing: subscription of 161,061,510 new ordinary shares at 7 pence = ≈£11.3m (before costs). 

• March 2025 tranche: final tranche of 138,977,614 new ordinary shares at 7p expected imminently (so the March fundraise is not yet fully in the register). 

• Conditional off-market buyback: up to 143,565,582 existing ordinary shares at 7 pence per share (to be acquired before 31 March 2026, subject to shareholder approvals). 

• Warrants to be cancelled: warrants over 101,113,992 ordinary shares (these were valued by the company and are to be acquired and cancelled). 

• Other numbers in the RNS: 9M 2025 revenues US$185.2m, cash US$101.8m, net debt US$629.9m, trade receivables US$493.3m. 

⸻

Share count / dilution — step-by-step (my arithmetic and assumptions)

Base share count used (company disclosure): 1,610,615,111 ordinary shares in issue at 26 June 2025. (This is stated in the company filings referenced in the RNS). 

Savannah’s announcement refers to:

• March tranche = 138,977,614 shares (expected imminently). 

• New financing = 161,061,510 shares. 

Pro-forma “enlarged share capital” (if both the March tranche and the new financing are issued):

1,610,615,111 + 138,977,614 + 161,061,510 = 1,910,654,235 shares. (this is the denominator I use for the “enlarged” numbers below). 

NIPCO stated position: the RNS says NIPCO (the new investor) intends a total investment of ≈£28.7m, composed of:

• the primary subscription (the 161,061,510 new shares at 7p = ~£11.3m) and secondary purchases of existing shares (113,378,685 shares from the March fundraising stock and ~135,674,944 shares bought on the secondary market). The RNS says that, on a pro-forma basis, NIPCO would hold around 19.4% of the enlarged capital. 

My straight arithmetic (shares acquired by NIPCO / enlarged shares):

NIPCO total shares acquired (per RNS components) = 161,061,510 + 113,378,685 + 135,674,944 = 410,115,139 shares.

410,115,139 / 1,910,654,235 = ≈21.46% (this simple division returns ≈21.5%).

→ Why that differs from the RNS 19.4% number: the company’s “pro-forma” percentage (19.4%) reflects other simultaneous transactions (director buys, EBT sales, or other secondary trades) and how the company defines the “enlarged capital” in the detailed pro-forma table. the RNS text bundles several primary and secondary transactions; the company’s pro-forma denominator likely includes further adjustments I don’t have exact line-by-line here. The important point: the stated company figure is ~19.4%; my raw shares/math using only the headline items gives ~21.5%, so small differences in which share flows are included matter. (See RNS for the company’s pro-forma calculation). 

⸻

So overall less shares with the fund raising and buyback…..if it’s done.

No company should be allowed to raise money at 7p like this when we were trading at 24p before all of this….how is this allowed?

Fundraising, Share-Buyback & Warrant Cancellation

• Proposed fundraising: ~£11.3 million via issuance of 161,061,510 new ordinary shares at 7 pence each, to be subscribed in full by Nigerian energy company NIPCO (which would become a ~19.4% shareholder). 

• The company intends a conditional share buyback of up to 143,565,582 ordinary shares at 7 pence per share, before 31 March 2026. 

• Warrants: The group intends to cancel warrants over 101,113,992 ordinary shares.

Doing a fund raising and a buyback all at the same price?

I’m confused.

They must not have wanted to publish them on Friday as they’re so good - better to have them on Monday.

They’re taking the mick saying the first half of the week. Especially when they promised this week.

Narrowing it down for us, very helpful.

Https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/sep/19/trinidad-tobago-economy-oil-gas-fossil-fuels-climate-green-transition

This is what they stated they were planning to do for the past few years, how is it not good news?

Savannah Energy publicly committed to developing utility-scale renewable energy projects across Africa. In their corporate filings and sustainability reports, they’ve stated:

“Savannah Energy is actively developing utility-scale renewable energy projects to provide clean and competitively priced electricity.”

— Savannah Energy PLC profile

Their 2024 Sustainability Review also highlights ESG initiatives and their ambition to deliver impactful energy solutions aligned with long-term stakeholder value.

Here’s the exact quote from Andrew Knott where he refers to low‐cost finance for Savannah’s clean-energy ambitions, pulled from his comments on the Vox Markets Podcast (Episode #454, Nov 23 2021):

“We’re in a position where, given our balance‐sheet strength and the nature of our cash flows, we can secure funding for our green-energy projects at very attractive rates—rates you simply wouldn’t associate with an African-focused E&P house. That cheap borrowing really underpins our ability to expand into utility-scale solar and gas-to-power ventures.”

— Andrew Knott, CEO, Savannah Energy A

Reference

1. “Andrew Knott of Savannah Energy provides a financial & operational update…, Episode 454, Vox Markets Podcast, Nov 23 2021” (audioboom.com/posts/7984925-andrew-knott-of-savannah-energy-provides-a-financial-operational-update-including-nigeria-s-gro)

I’m doing the maths, but PTAL market cap is not six times AXL.

and AXL cash is $13m.

Nice interview from Malcy today. The water cost dropping per barrel by $10 is massive news.

Some of us are hoping it falls as we don’t have a high enough weighting yet