Member Info for Che7win

I always thought there were multiple deals for each application, I’d say either 5 deals to be done or one straight takeover.

To be frank, a straight takeover is in the frame as long as the market cap stays low.

Really pleased with this news.

Clearly, Tim had a deal in mind during the initial interviews and was pretty confident with early discussions that a deal would be done.

What’s happened now is that other interested parties have come forwards that weren’t in the frame earlier, so now the talks have had to be extended with multiple parties entering the frame.

I take it that clearly from today’s news, the pricing of the earlier deal will now be meeting competition from other interested parties.

So conclusion, deal will take longer resulting in a higher price:

“ The whole team is dedicated to securing a partnership deal that does justice to the innovation and clinical potential of P140, valuing a more methodical approach over speed, so the best outcome for shareholders can be achieved. We are seeking a partner whose culture and aspirations match those of the Board, prioritising long-term synergy.”

If there are multiple parties interested, then of course it’s going to take time.

Each party has to negotiate, and its will also get into a bidding war to secure the prize.

I had said that the longer it takes the better, we don’t want to close a deal before the best bid has come forwards.

I still think this opwont be one deal, there are multiple deals, unless we move forwards to a straight takeover.

To be frank, as takeover is as likely unless our market cap reflects the asset better. Current price doesn’t.

“Potential partners who have expressed an interest in P140 range in size and scope and include a number of top ten global Pharma companies.“

Maybe there will be 5 deals for each drug application rather than one deal?

So, we are doing deals and they are currently ongoing.

Would be lovely just to get a straight £3 a share takeover.

Smtch,

As per the patent RNS:

“ This combination makes P140 a unique and extremely valuable asset, particularly with the potential for 20 years of commercial exclusivity, and will add enormous traction to our current discussions with potential global partners of P140."

What a silly post from you Onetomany.

Your retort to me on the upside of the drug by asking me how many employees IMM has. That is very misguided and shows the measure of you.

I would rather go by Tim’s comment on the drug I.e. that it’s “Truly groundbreaking” and compares P140 to the Cambridge Antibody Technology drug that went on to have $22.1 billion sales with Humira in 2022.

When there are multiple interested parties, the bidding war can drag on….😀

Thanks J Kemp, explain to me what that means - the Avion deal is limited to US, right?

The obesity market is larger in my opinion. What is your thoughts on low, medium, and realistic high valuation upside potential?

Realistic buyout value today: £0.90 – £2.10 per share

Realistic buyout value after one major deal: £2 – £4 per share

If P140 becomes a validated multi-indication platform (rare but possible):

£5+ per share

(still far below the “50 use case £20–50/share” fantasy, but grounded in real M&A logic)

4. So how do the patent + nondilutive partnerships fit together?

The strategy appears to be:

Step 1 — Strengthen IP (done → recent patent)

Step 2 — Show broad mechanistic relevance to autoimmune disease (done → MOA presentation)

Step 3 — Use this to negotiate new major partnerships

Step 4 — Use Avion for lupus US only

Step 5 — Sign additional deals for other diseases + diagnostics

Step 6 — Optionally raise funds after deals to avoid dilution

This is why the market has reacted strongly recently — the patent significantly increases the value of the platform and makes a big partnership much more realistic.

⸻

🧩 5. The key takeaway

The new patent matters because:

• It extends exclusivity

• It protects the platform, not just lupus

• It supports many indications

• It increases the deal value

• It strengthens IMM’s negotiation position

Avion does NOT block new deals:

• Avion only owns lupus rights in the U.S.

• IMM can license:

• lupus outside the US

• ALL other autoimmune diseases

• diagnostics

• anti-infectives

• peptide platform assets

This is why IMM believes the addressable market is so large.

2. “But Avion already has the deal!” — So how can IMM do another deal?

This is commonly misunderstood.

👉 Avion’s deal only covers LUPUS in the US (and possibly some territories).

Avion does NOT own P140 for:

• non-lupus autoimmune diseases

• global rights

• peptide platform rights

• CIDP

• companion diagnostic

• anti-infectives

• any other indications

Avion is not blocking other deals.

Avion only has one slice of a much bigger pie.

🔥 Meaning: IMM can absolutely sign multiple deals

So yes—Avion does not prevent further deals.

IMM is free to license P140 or related assets to others in many territories and indications.

⸻

✅ 3. So why did IMM say the market potential was $100 billion?

Because:

A) They are now positioning P140 as a platform peptide

B) Targeting many autoimmune markets

C) The autoimmune drug market globally is already $100B+ and growing

For example:

• Lupus market → ~$4–5B

• RA → ~$30B

• MS → ~$25B

• IBD → ~$20B

• CIDP → smaller but high value

• Sjögren’s → large unmet need

• Many others

If P140 is repositioned as:

“a targeted modulator of autophagy for autoimmune diseases”,

→ it becomes a multi-disease platform.

This is where the massive valuation upside models come from.

Here’s the real explanation of what’s going on with ImmuPharma (IMM.L), the new patent, the “$100 billion market potential” statement, and how they can still do a deal even though Avion already has a deal.

I’ll break it down clearly and simply.

Why the recent patent is so important

The new patent relates to the mechanism of action (MOA) of P140 (Lupuzor™) and provides new IP protection.

This is important because:

A) It extends the patent life

ImmuPharma’s older patents expire much sooner.

A new MOA patent = new 20-year clock for exclusivity.

For a small biotech, patent life = deal value.

Partners will NOT pay big money if IP protection is weak.

B) It applies to multiple autoimmune diseases

This is why the company said the potential autoimmune market is $100 billion+.

P140 is not like a drug for one disease.

Its mechanism targets autophagy, which is implicated across MANY autoimmune diseases such as:

• Lupus

• CIDP

• Sjögren’s

• Rheumatoid arthritis

• Multiple sclerosis

• Crohn’s / colitis

• Others

The new patent strengthens their rights to use P140 in many autoimmune indications, not just lupus.

C) It strengthens licensing leverage

A partner wants:

• Patent protection

• Novel mechanism

• Differentiation

• Broad indication potential

The patent gives IMM a far better negotiating position.

Thanks CauldStream7.

It’s exciting for sure, I added 375k today.

Think the reply was removed, would be interested to know thoughts on upside.

Based in the following, what do we think IMM share price could reach in next year?

P140 already reached Phase 3 — lower risk

That’s a major de-risking milestone.

If ImmuPharma’s P140 (originally Lupuzor™ for lupus) has completed Phase 3 with a good safety profile, that means:

• Toxicology, dosing, and human tolerability are largely validated.

• Regulatory path is shorter if a new trial (e.g. confirmatory Phase 3 or reformulation) is needed.

• Many potential partners value that because it removes the “can we safely dose people?” uncertainty that kills most preclinical assets.

Even though Lupuzor™ didn’t meet its Phase 3 primary endpoint statistically back in 2018, the excellent safety data remains valuable — and with new mechanistic understanding or biomarker refinement, that Phase 3 experience gives them a “second life” for P140 and analogues.

So: it’s not really an “early stage” play anymore — more of a platform with clinical validation.

Profit estimates (accuracy is guesswork)

If Savannah completes the deal and stabilises collections and operations, a reasonable expectation might be €40-60 million EBITDA per annum (after factoring in risk) in the first full year post-close. Over time, if fuel conversion (e.g., Dibamba HFO→gas) and availability improvements happen, perhaps €60-70 million or more is attainable. But if payment issues persist, the business may only deliver €20-30 million EBITDA (or less) in a stressed year.

If Savannah pays ~€100-€120 million, that implies they are expecting a strong recovery / improvement scenario (i.e., mid-to-high end of that range).

Why Savannah might want this (upside)

1. Immediate cashflow and scale in-country. The plants are operational with long-dated PPAs/tolling arrangements, producing predictable revenues when payments flow — strategic for a company that already has oil & gas and logistics presence in Cameroon. 

2. Portfolio synergies. Savannah already has Cameroonian energy assets (ETS, FSO). Owning generation improves vertical integration / negotiating position with ENEO and government. 

3. Operational improvements / fuel optimisation. Kribi is dual-fuel (gas + backup oil). Converting more load to cheaper local gas and improving plant availability could lift margins. Wärtsilä upgrades and long-term services exist which support reliability. 

4. Market demand and strategic position. Cameroon’s power demand is growing; these plants already supply a large share of reliable capacity — opportunity to capture premium peaking/firming revenues and to expand into renewables/batteries later. 

What’s on the table

• Target: Globeleq Cameroun — Globeleq’s national subsidiary that owns and operates the major thermal power assets in Cameroon (principally the Kribi gas-fired plant and the Dibamba heavy-fuel-oil peaking plant). 

• Assets / capacity: Kribi ≈ 216 MW (gas-fired, dual-fuel engines, 20-year PPA with ENEO); Dibamba ≈ ~88 MW (HFO peaking plant, tolling/PPA with ENEO). Together they supply a material share of Cameroon’s grid (Globeleq says ~20% of the country’s power). 

• Deal status / price signal: Africa Intelligence reports Savannah is in exclusive talks to buy Globeleq Cameroun and mentions a headline figure of more than €100m; the report says talks involve the government and that discussions are ongoing. (paywalled original reported 31 Oct 2025).

The consortium / parties (simple map)

• Globeleq — pan-African independent power producer and current operator/owner in Cameroon (via Globeleq Cameroun). Globeleq runs the Kribi and Dibamba plants and holds PPAs/tolling agreements with ENEO, Cameroon’s national utility. 

• ENEO — the national off-taker; PPAs/tolling agreements with Globeleq govern revenues. Historic disputes between ENEO (and government) and Globeleq over payments have disrupted operations in the past.