Member Info for ChartaRex

Cheers Bob,

Personally, I think we'll 5 bag by 2pm on our first day, but what do I know! :)

Agree about management. I believe they're currently looking at other deals as we speak.

Rex

Des,
If he's honestly as successful as you say, then he should just put it all in the Vanguard 100% equity ETF for his kids. You can thank me in 10 years time. Maybe a small allocation here as well :)

Rex

CORRECTION:

"For those wanting to use the current oil price, then just add 20.4p to the £1.80 for each year you think oil will be at current levels".

*I forgot to add back in the $80million + $50million deductions from my original calcs. All other numbers stand.

Rex

Reading all the posts about our potential MCap made me get my calculator out. Now, I'm no oil expert so please don't shoot me down for having a basic stab at valuing this, but here goes.......

We have 220m shares in issue.
We have $58m of cash/equity.
This equates to a current sp of 21p.

Block 3/5 will give us 4,000bpd and 20 million barrels of P2 reserves.
If we assume a very conservative $75 per barrel and an AISC of $35, then we get $40 per barrel of profit.
If we assume production of 350 days per year then that gives us 4000barrels x $40 x 350 days = $56million FCF per year.
(I don't know what kind of downtime could be involved in maintenance etc, so I've gone for 1.25 days per month as a pure guess).
Now, if you extrapolate that across the next 10 years (see the latest presentation), we get $560 million FCF. We then deduct the upfront $80million payment and the $50m payment that's spread over 10 years, then we get a figure of $430 million. In addition to this we can add the P2 reserves. After 10 years of production these would be reduced to 6 million barrels (having produced 1.4 million barrels annually for 10 years). I believe OIP is valued at between $1-2 per barrel. Taking the mid figure of $1.50 per barrel, that would give us another $9 million. This gives us a total of $439 million over 10 years.
Therefore with a P/E of 10, and a $/£ exchange rate of 1.25, I calculate a share price of £1.59 plus our current assets of 21p. Giving a grand total of £1.80 per share.
For those wanting to use the current oil price, then just add 15.9p to the £1.80 for each year you think oil will be at current levels.
Of course, this all depends on how the market values our P/E. If they decide to give up a P/E of 2, then our sp will be 36 pence! :(

The above doesn't take account of the current high oil price (I've only used $75), Odewayne, Block 23, any increase in production at Block3/5 or any other deals that P McD may possibly have in the pipeline.

Grateful for any constructive thoughts, but please no abuse! As I said at the biginning of my post, I'm no oiler :)

Regards
Rex

For Older and wiser.
I don't need "kudos", I'm my own man.
Rex

Excellent numbers this morning.
Unfortunately I'll not be investing just yet - I'm waiting for Afentra to come out of suspension at the end of the month, with a significant re-rating, then I'll sell the lot and pump it in here to add to my golden ticket collection! Happy days :)
And no, that's not a ramp for Afentra, cos the share are currently suspended, so you can't buy them.

As for Bamps, he's a grown man and can make his own decisions. No-one should be bullied off a discussion board by strangers - I should know cos I've been on the receiving end from some here. Obviously, they'd never do it face to face, that would take real courage.

Rex

Excellent news. Looks like the start of the journey to growth.
Happy days :)
Rex

Thanks for that. I expect the sp may double from here on re-listing, with other deals in the pipline (possibly). Like you, I'm here for P McD and his Africa knowledge/experience. I have a feeling that within 5-10 years AET will be big.
Good luck :)
Rex

Maxwell, where did you see that?
Rex

Resubmission in & accepted by the FDA. I expect we'll rise today.
Rex

I've just read the RNS & see nothing of major concern. The drop this morning just reflects the non-payment of Divi. I think this will settle around the £2 area for now.
Just my opinion
Rex

Maybe Sandeep has calculated the 5% and baulked at the staggeringly high price he'd have to pay! :)
We know he's under pressure from NCM to rein in his expenditure across the board.
Just a thought :)
Rex

SAS, Even I couldn't afford that! Lol! :)
Rex

SAS, if a buyout happens this year I'll probably dump the lot into NCM because it means we've been "had" - follow the money :)
Rex

Xavido, why would you cash in at such a low valuation? Personally this is a "forever" share in my ISA. GGP could be mining in the Patterson for the next 50+ years.
On a separate note, if you're thinking of selling your house at less than 50% of it's true value, call me :)
Rex

Hydrogen, frankly I really don't care. If GGP is being artifically held down then use it to your advantage - load up with as many shares as possible, thank the shorters for this amazing opportunity, and move on! There's no need to go on and on and on about "shorters" on this board. You should be grateful to them!
Frankly I think you're a bit obsessed with it. Maybe you should take some time away from the board & get a bit of perspective?
Rex

DS,
If I say yes, does that mean I can have his shares? Lol!
Rex

Spudderman,
Shorting goes on across the stock market, including shares you have in your workplace pension fund, but I don't see anyone else obsessing about it? If you really want to hurt them keep buying the shares - quietly!
Rex

An excellent, thoughtful and balance post BabyInvestor. Thank you.

Maybe a few more like this would improve this board exponentially.
Rex

I've just trawled through pages and pages of utter garbage about JP Morgan "shorting" and Hydrogen's obsession about shorters, WTF is going on here????????????

Who cares iabout shorters, seriously!! Just keep BUYING whilst the price is low and forget the noise.
You lot are completely ruining a perfectly good board with this stupidity - stop it - PLEASE stop it!
Rex