Member Info for char333

Hi, yes a very interesting take on the situation. Firstly , I believe the dividend will be cut within 2/3 years. So what impact will that have on SP. When I 1st bought shares well over 25 years ago this is the exact guff people portrayed. Choose a good dividend, good balance sheet, good cash flow, good yeild etc etc etc. Then take a 3 to 5 years position. I need 8 more dividends to break even on the money I lost on Vodafone. If, and I believe it's a big if the dividend isn't cut in that time period, the share price will be that low , I will be in a worst position than when I started. Imagine someone buying shell , then being in a coma for 5 years. Well I'd hate to see the look on their face when they come to. Wake up & smell the oil & gas. The next update won't offer much, will it. Lower profits garenteed. So if OPEC helps next month where is the share price running up from. I've no doubt she'll will be around in 25 years , but not paying this amount of dividend. Look at the banks, supermarkets. All the restructuring, divis s slashed, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to work things out. Endlessly falling profits there equalled dividend cuts. So that's the scenario here & BP , imo. Let's hope I'm hopelessly wrong. But time will tell.

If this gets to above £24 over the next year or so I will be sorely tempted to cut my losses. My opinions are that , mine. You don't have to read them, agree with them. To me their not negative, but the realist opinion of where we're heading. Give or take a couple of years, I believe in my sentiments.
I incidentally made all the same predictions about Vodafone & told them what was ahead. Only to be derided & abused. I told them Vodafone may never see £2 again & they laughed. Are they laughing now. Errrr, no.
The only way back for people holding at top end, £26 or over is a merger or takeover. That's my honest accessment. People on all websites try to control people's opinions. Especially when they don't agree or precieved then as negative. Well sorry, that's tough. That's the democratic system we live in. You've your opinion & I've mine. I have no wish to change yours, so please have the decency to allow me mine.

I topped up out of desperation. To average down. All I've predicted I fully believe will happen often, but I'm hoping to break even before the dividend cuts etc etc happens. I need to years roughly more divis to break even, but where will share price be. Leaving me & loads of others still hugely out of pocket.

2021 -2025, shell returning £125 billion to shareholders. Yeah right. Get real. Talk is cheap. I'll believe it when I see it. I'd enjoy the next few dividends , because in this oil & gas turn down, when push comes to shove the people who will suffer are the small shareholders. The c e o will walk away with a hefty packet come what may. Will you or I, errrrrr , no. I recall Vodafone spending around 7 billion for a India gamble & it backfired. It's now practically worthless. Shell bought B G group for a hefty price & now doesn't look a good purchase, as gas prices plummet, as well as oil of cause. Some idiot on here saying shell soon be back at £25. Get real. These people hide their head in the sand. If president tramp hadn't had those spats with Iraq around Xmas, I dread to think where this S P would be now. £16 probably. People keep saying shell as seen £15 a few times before. Yes that's true, but not with the oil & gas mess in USA. There's be a revaluation of oil in USA , so these lower prices for shell will be the norm, mark my words. As each day passes my brother's prediction & brokers of £27 this year is complete folly. BP is also sinking , their demise may be a little slower. But in the same boat, no doubt. The more the company as to pay a bigger % dividend, the quicker the dividend cut or rights issue will arise. I'm not talking months in this, but 2 to 3 years time. Within the time frame that shell intended to return capitol to shareholders. Let's see. But I'll put all my money on it, errrrrr no. Feel free to disagree, I'm no expert in stock markets, but I'm very good at seeing the brown stuff before many people even sniff it. Negative, no, realist, yes definitely.

I've topped up around £18.75, so £17 here we come. BP + shell are in the same boat as far as I can see , though BP as less exposure to gas. But either way. Things are not looking good. Maybe in 3 to 5 years this period may be seen as a great buying opportunity. I don't think this is like 5 years ago because oil & gas restructioning like never before. It's a long way back imo.

Well that's £19 gone. Makes you think below £18 sooner rather than later. Sorry to be so negative, but that's the reality. Energy the worse performing sector in USA, so it isn't gonna do out perform here. I said the same about Vodafone 2 years ago & look where that is now. Slashed dividend, share price plummeted. The parellels are obvious.

Does anyone know the exact date the final dividend conversion date is. I know the dividend is o.47 cents, but she'll give the exact amount to be paid, when they take the average over a week. Dollar conversion to sterling of o.47 is nearly 0.36.5 ATM. So hopefully it will be over 36p dividend when the final amount is declared.
Still holding over £19, but as soon as I top up it will plummet down , I'm sure.

Sorry I was calculating before the last 4 month drop. Dividend looks good if it rises. And stays there. But it's a big risk.

Well b p pay a better dividend + up it b4 the last couple e o Dudley left. Their update seems very similar to shell. So other than that , I'm unsure. Shell seems to be holding above £19, but I know the minute I top up it will plummet down .

This is now a definetly going well below £19. With apples warning regards coronavirus, it will fall more when Dow opens. I've been waiting to top up from £21 down. But each time the macro news gets more bleak. Will revise at £18 40 ISH. But that may be high a price going forward. Best hope this year is around £24 50ish & that's a huge rise from here.

I will buy in at the next big fall & hope for the best. That's the reality .

I think the fall will continue when Dow opens at 2 30 pm. Will take a gamble below £19, which now looks a certainty. Oil & gas prices falling most weeks, so will cut in to profits. Gonna take something to get it going back up above £20, it seems.

Will open up down 36p ISH in morning as ex dividend
Be very happy if it doesn't go below £19, but perhaps a forlorn hope imo. Will top up around that mark, but may be throwing good money after bad. Time will tell. OPEC meeting in march may bring some relief, but where will the S P be then I wonder.

Look like below £19 after Thursday. Then who knows how low it will fall. It's how longs a piece of string imo. But i for one will be happy to stay above £18. Time will tell.

Let's hope the oil prices surges. We certainly need something to push this up after going ex dividend on Thursday. I will probably take a gamble when S P hits £18 75, but depends on the macro news doing the rounds then. Someone needs to pull a rabbit out of the hat. Oil is very difficult to predict, so you never know what's around the corner.

Oh well. That rally was short lived . Let's hope it's back above £20. 40ish before going ex dividend next Friday. Will consider topping up around £19, when x dividend.

Nice to see the recent stability. Would be pleased if it held above £20 before going x dividend next Friday.

Nice rise so far today, though edgng down. Nothing worse than when footsie surges, but your share doesn't rise with it. Dow futures up, so hopefully will gain a little when it opens. Any buffer is welcome.
I see BP's earnings were deemed poor. But raised dividend. But c e o is leaving. Probably b4 the real brown stuff hits the fan, I guess.
But a gain is a gain, so let's be pleased at any little gains over the next few weeks for shell.

Hi, well a your half right. I did indeed cut my losses on Vodafone around £1 80 a share & told all on LSE Vodafone board it would plummet, the dividend would be cut & it may never be £2 again. Only to be derided. Their not laughing now, are they. I wish I had plummed for apple, but chose shell
As I've said, Barclays, invesnys, Tesco, Sainsbury's & Vodafone all did really well for a while, then bang, the share price plummeted & all dividend slashed. None are at any where near the high price they once were. The parellels with shell now, make me believe it's a matter of when, not if dividend will be cut& a rights issue for good measure , both within 2 to 3 years. But I could be hopelessly wrong. Time will tell. I wish I had the guts to cut & run here, bit it's very early days, as I say. But if, and I stress if, if shell gets to £25 this year I will cut & run.but when I get this feeling in my gut I fear £25 is a long long long haul from here imo. Feel free to disagree.

I think your missing the point. Yes, my share buying as often been poor, but the salient point is all the things been quoted on here & other shell message boards , are the exact same things that were turfed out on Tesco's, Sainsbury's, Barclays, Vodafone, chat sites & look at them now. I recall apple being $1 75 dollars about 18 months ago & Vodafone being £1 87 a share & people saying it's a once in a lifetime chance to fill your boots. Well Vodafone plummeted to £1 20ish, while apple is now well over $300 a share.. well I knew apple was a screaming buy & Vodafone a screaming sell. But no one on Vodafone sites listened. Time will tell if she'll is a apple or a Vodafone of a share, but I know what I think.