Member Info for char333

I have huge respect for those holding shell being so positive about the future. Great company, great divide, great cash flow, great balance sheet,. But there the same quotes I got from posters on the Vodafone sit 3 years ago, where I predicted the share price fall. That's been in the doldrums for nearly 2 years & the parellels to shell problems now, are huge imo. I could be totally wrong. But it doesn't happen often.

While in early January I was really glad was £23 & above I had no doubt it wouldn't reach the £24 50 I need to sell my next tranche of shares. But I at least there was a buffer to the feared results . And knew they would drag down the S P . Compounded by the coronavirus. God know how low it would be if it hadn't been for the Iraq v president tramp spate in December. You can top up to average down, but that as never worked when I owned Tesco, Sainsbury's, Barclays , Vodafone, btr sieve (invesnys). So I have a terrible feeling history will repeat itself.

Yes, I was thinking that they paid the dividend through the 2016 period. But as I see it, the oil industry as never faced so many macro problems as it as to now & beyond. The dividend may last 2 years, maybe, if we're lucky. But beyond that period if things don't pick up & change drastically, I feel a divi cut or rights issue is a good possibility within a timeframe of 2 to 3 years. Sorry, but that's how I see it. Eventually on the stock market the same thing happens to most shares you own long term, unless your exceptionally lucky imo.

Hi, trump45. I admire & like your positive outlook. It's at the total end of the spectrum from my own. Whilst in normal trading conditions for shell, your investment advice is spot on. But I believe that oil & energy companies are now & going forward face much more difficult challenging conditions. So update , upon update profits are falling, due to lots of different reasons. So historically this would be a great topping up opportunity. But buy today & in a few weeks your holding will be in arrears alot more than the dividend you'll receive.. Theirin lies the problem. Will shell pay a divi of 8, 9, 10%, not if these conditions persist. I can only see some big tension in oil regions , or rumours or truth of a merger of companies that can get this share back in the regions of £27 imo . It's only 1 months since this was above £23, so perhaps I'm a little premature in my views. But theirin I feel lies this dilemma. I've held Barclays over £6, where is it now, ££1 40, . I've held Tesco at £3 65, where is it now. £2 50, Sainsbury's at £370, £210ish now. Vodafone at £2 40, now £1 50. And a few others & all the above companies have slashed dividends. The parellels are there now for shell. Falling profits & no end in site. The only good things are shell have never cut the dividend & oil is a very violatile industry, where things change extremely quickly. Time will tell.

Well, today so far as to be a bonus, as many predited a big fall as the China markets open today after their new year. Though the government there pumping in billions of money to prop it up. Below £19 50 by Friday I suggest.
When it goes ex dividend next week, it will fall another 36ish pence, I think, though that's not a certainty. No end in site to this coroonavirus. So it's gonna drag the markets down. It can't go on forever. Sooner or later, coronavirus can't be the driver of the markets. But it's a how longs a piece of string.i think it's looking at £18 60ish after it goes ex dividend. Can't believe the thicko broker's & analysts are still predicting £26 this year. Don't see that at all. My guess for what it's worth is £24 75 ish, this year. As we stand here today. I'll top up if the news picks up, on all oil related news. To most topping up is a no brained, but then they come on here & say their investment keeps selling off, that's the dilemma.

Indeed, he is. But I seem to remember him buying Tesco shares a while back & taking a huge loss when he sold. I held Tesco too & got stung. No one is immune to stock market meltdown. Oil is in near crisis, if you believe the rhetoric coming out from USA. Stock markets hate fear. Maybe you will make a quick buck over the coming months if you get in at the lows. But long term, people waiting for £24 & above will realise it's a long long long way back from here. I remember saying when Vodafone was £1 87 it may never get back to £2 only to be derided. They are not laughing now are they. The parellels are huge. Once a sector is poor in USA the writing is on the wall. 1 by 1 most will come around to my way of thinking, me thinks.
I feel we've got 2 years to go before the brown stuff hits the fan & van burden will get in the real world, instead of giving corporate answers to dividend questions. some may be able to cut their losses to a minimum. Doubt I'll be that lucky. As I always say time will tell, but they don't call me mystic don for no reason.

Warren buffet. He always says you can't buy a share just for the dividend. It becomes a value trap. So many people buying in here for 7/% Divi. It don't work. Buffets right. As the share price continues to fall Divi % rises. As I said on Vodafone no footsie company with falling profits will pay 8 to 9% dividend for to long. Did Vodafone , error , NO.
Buffets says the longer you hold a share the stronger your holding. Well anyone holding here will soon see that is folly as share price continues to fall. Buffet like most people is 50% right & 50% wrong, like most of us.

As I predicted in my last post, if share price declined at open, the slide would continue when
Dow opens.going.. I believe going forward the bad news will escalate. My brother's prediction of £27 by mid summer months now looks a forn lorn hope. No chance imo. Van burden was totally unconvincing in his interview on CNBC. Total political spin. His answers to dividend going forward reminded me of comical ally. He was the perverbioul rabbit in the headlights..the parellels with Vodafone shares are huge. There bad update after update, bad news after bad news, with no one arresting the slide, echos here imo. For 2 years telecommunications were the worst performaning on the dow. . Now it's the energy sector that's the worst. I predict a rights issue within 2 to 3 years. Dividend cut around the same time period. Maybe a big escalation of middle East or other oil areas can spike oil prices to high 80s , 90s dollars & my productions will look very stupid. I've held shell shares for over 20 years off & on , but can't recall a time where sentiment was this low. During that time a merger of emails with BP was muted at various stages & that now could provide some staving off my predictions. Sorry if find my views negative. I don't, I find them realistic. Ask holders of Vodafone my predictions over the last 3 years & that will confirm my record. Let's hope I'm 100% wrong, for all our sakes. 2 reasons there's no £27 this year, 1 I own shell, 2 it won't. I expect brokers to lower their forecasts now, which can only add to the near term share price fall. The small shareholders will always be the 1st to suffer. Van burden will have a mountain of money from shell whatever the share price performance.. that's the real world. Time will tell, if I'm talking crap.

This is only my opinion, though as usual it's a fairly cynical 1. Shell could report really good or really bad update on Thursday , but the markets will decide how they wish to see it. How many times have companies updated the market with bad news, yet share price as risen sharply. If I had a £ for everyone company's have provided good updates & S P as plummeted on some other issue, sometimes , forward guidelines, buybacks, cash flow etc etc, I'd be a rich man. Shell as gone down on last 3 updates, though on 2 occasios results were decent. One thing I'll say if it goes down at the open it will plummet when Dow opens. But I'll say this to every shareholder of every share on the plannet. Don't be spooked by people on message boards, who seek to spread fear at times like this. Do one thing & make your own mind up on how you go forward, buy or sell or hold. Only problem is & I see parallels with Vodafone from 2 years ago. When shell updates & it perceived poorly we say get to the next update asap only for it to go down again. That's the big problem as I see it. January in oil is usually a buying opportunity as it's normal that oil shares are at their lows at this time of year. Most shares have fell sharply the last few days & intruth alot worst than oil shares. I believe imo that if this goes down alot on Thursday it could be a long way back. While dividend is maintained many will top up at lower levels, but as I & millions of Vodafone holders found, you top up & share
keeps going down much more than the dividend amount. so it don't work. Hope Im wrong, but whatever the long term value of this company , Thursday is pivotal.

Well I did predict the stock markets would sell off around 5 to 7 %. Now we know the reasons, which I didn't at the time.
If this goes down on Thursday , I believe £19 75 could be tested. Alot of negative news regarding oil & shell in general. Looks like a long long long way now for my brother's prediction of £27 come the summer. While I hold shell , it won't. Of course with oil something always comes out the blue from the middle East to spike oil prices, but where will shell SP be rising from. That's the problem.

Well my hope of seeing £24. Plus have disappeared into dust. Denfinetly going below £22 now imo. I will top up, but if it goes down on results a week on Thursday may go below £21 imo. My brother is adamant this will be £27 come June. Can't see it, but what do I know. But the trend is down ATM.

Share price stuck I'm limbo ATM. No direction one way or other, now the latest Iran spat has ceased.
Looks like results on 30th January will give direction , up or down. A few analysts on CNBC the last few days been saying could be 7 to 10 % sell on US indices if earnings don't beat estimated levels, though the big banks in U S have reported good figures & been well received.

Yes, not sure which share marverick is referring to. If you believe the rhetoric, 2021 is the year shell is set to reward the shareholders. Time will tell. S P as stalled ATM. Results 3 weeks today .

I don't recall any profit warning. They drip feed snippets of their results to stop any big shocks on results on results announcement. As happened 3 results days back. If if does slide on results should provide a buying opportunity imo.

I don't see £30 or anywhere near this year imo. Feel free to disagree. If this spat did escalate to a war shell would plummet , as it did in the Iraq war. I recall it being around £17 or a bit lower. I say somewhere around £27 or slightly higher this year , tops. But at today's £23 that would be a good investment. I still feel the big play is the results on the 30th Jan. Depending on the share price reaction will shape S P going forward. Shell as gone down on the last 3 results, so by law of averages it should rise. Shell was above these levels before Xmas, so in truth as recovered lost ground.

Where's do you think shell. S P will be in the summer. Difficult, I know. But what's your gut feeling.

S P now falling slightly, though , I expect it to rise slightly when Dow Jones opens. I find that the never ending USA v Iran conflict in the middle East spikes oil & share price, but soon falls back when peace breaks out for a little while. Maybe this spat as run its course, till the next fracas.

While I predicted stock markets would fall 5 to 7 % in January, I didn't forsee the reasons. Bit of a problem , as I was hoping to get back in around £22 20. So missed the boat I feel. My next get out is around £24 50ish, so this may be a possibility after results at end of January. With oil , it's so violatile you just never know how to position yourself. Brokers talking £30 & above. No chance imo , but £27 now this year could well materialize in the summer month if she'll goes up after the results. imo.

Happy new year to everyone . Let's hope the 2 blond baffoons can help stock markets worldwide, as I feel history will mark them down as 2 very nasty men. Not to be trusted under any circumstances. Have a great 2020 to all. Hope you all make big gains. But more importantly good health.

Yes, I may have missed a topping up opportunity over the Xmas rally. The results look patchy with the writedowns eating on the bottom line. If S P goes down on results it will be the 3rd time in a row. But could be a good chance to get back in.
Happy Christmas to everyone on the LSE message board. Good luck for 2020. Hope you make alot of big penny's.