Member Info for ChameleonMan

The reality may be that capital costs for a greenfield site such as this are still unsupported by the current market price for ilmenite. Listen to what Kenmare’s CEO has to say about their current Minerals sands expansion in Moz.
“ Whether by accident or design, Kenmare has found a sweet spot in the market. The ilmenite price isn’t strong enough to support hundreds of millions and even billions of dollars of capital expenditure that would be required to get major new projects off the ground, but it is strong enough to support the investment in extra supply from existing operations like Moma, which can leverage off existing processing and export infrastructure.

So far that analysis has been borne out by the fundamentals, and the investment in new capacity is nearing completion.

The expectation is that Kenmare will be producing ilmenite at a net cost of between US$50 and US$60 per tonne from 2021, compared to US$78 per tonne in the first half of 2019. Set against the current ilmenite sales price of above US$200 per tonne, the company looks to be in a nice position.” https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/amp/news/911354
This comments may be aimed at making Rio think more closely about Mutamba but it makes you realise how important it is to get the PFS and DFS as complete and accurate as possible before thinking about raising funds?

Oops! RIP Terry Jones

Hardly wavering, just Waiting for the environmental law to be approved ........
“ Portugal is already Europe's biggest lithium producer, but its miners sell almost exclusively to the ceramics industry and are only now gearing up to produce higher-grade metal for batteries.

The minister, Joao Matos Fernandes, told reporters the tender and the concession of nine predetermined lithium mining locations would be held as soon as a new law clarifying "new environmental requirements" was approved.

"The tender can only be launched after the law is approved, promulgated and published," Matos Fernandes said. "I want to believe that by the end of the first quarter of next year we will be able to launch the tender."

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1YW0CB

Muldoon, from everything I’ve read and heard I think we can assume that the Portuguese government is 100% behind Lithium mining. Any comparison with fracking is misleading. Lithium mining is not going to cause earthquakes! Lithium has been mined in Portugal for years. This is just an increase in scale and represents an opportunity for Portugal to balance the books. Their may well be local opposition but this is too big a strategic asset for Portugal’s government to pass on. The EU has demanding CO2 targets and will be supporting this 100%. The environmental lobby will moan at the mining but welcome the cleaner air. Then there are local jobs - the locals may have sent theirs back in a hissy fit but in the long term they can’t have their cake and eat it!

You got cake? You were lucky! We could only dream of cake (and jam tomorrow)!
RIP Terry Gilliam

Must-see news report (play video) on Portugal and lithium mining. Features SAV personnel rarely seen and core sampling. https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.france24.com/en/europe/20200123-focus-portugal-s-lithium-rush-how-to-reconcile-jobs-with-the-environment

BSMA, Rio’s Richards Bay plant outputs Titanium sl@g but needs minerals sands feedstock so an increase in output needs a corresponding increase in feedstock. That’s where Mutamba potentially comes in to fill the shortfall. I can’t say whether that will be in a year, 2 or 5 but the day will come as the market forces are aligned. Depends whether your glass is half-full or half empty and that’s certainly where we differ.

I note that Rio’s quarterly production figures are out today.Reporting a healthy market for mineral sands products-“ Titanium dioxide **** production of 1.2 million tonnes was 8% higher than 2018, reflecting continued operational improvement and the restart of furnaces in line with market conditions. Fourth quarter production was impacted by the curtailment of operations at Richards Bay Minerals (RBM) in South Africa, following an escalation in violence in the surrounding communities. A phased restart commenced at the end of December.”
Also, “ We also boosted our exploration and evaluation expenditure to $624 million in 2019, further strengthening our pipeline of opportunities.” Guidance for 2020 is also up.
Conclusion: we have a well funded partner for co-developing Mutamba with a hunger for mineral sands to keep the furnaces at Richards Bay busy.
https://www.riotinto.com/news/releases/Rio-Tinto-Releases-Fourth-Quarter-Result

I completely agree. This has the potential to become a world-class mining project. I feel we are all a bit jaded by the time it has taken to get to this stage but now it has it presents a great opportunity. The prominence given to it by Rio Tinto confirms that they are highlighting it to shareholders as a significant non-managed operation and it feels to me that it will be progressed quickly now with Rio’s full support.

How do you know I’m not daft? I could be stark raving bonkers! However I am nothing if not hopeful. When this is trading at 15p again I will be laughing manically all the way to the asylum via the bank having deposited my cheque for £1m!

I know it’s not reliable but it appeared blue on here, hence my “?”. Maybe those with access to more accurate trading platforms could confirm? Either way the trend is surely up?

...and 1 million delayed buy to close! The good news regarding Mutamba has now been widely reported in the mining and finance media. Surprised no tick-up in SP as yet but maybe tomorrow?

A bit rude but I’ll let that pass. My question again is why you are still invested in a company that you so obviously have little faith in. I have to assume that you still believe you can recoup your losses which should at least give new investors the confidence that even the most pessimistic holder believes that the SP will increase substantially from here so there is money to be made by buying in now.

It never ceases to amaze me how some people seem to be aggravated by good news. A final full permitting in Moz is almost worth a Big Ben bong in my book!. Asset valuation for Mutamba is increased on de-risking via the permitting ( nominal but based on the scoping study). An SP rise of 9.3% over the day is surely very acceptable ( actual, jam today)? This was a good news day and some of you guys still seem disenchanted. If you can’t enjoy a day like this I would be questioning why you are a) invested and b) spreading gloom on here?

The PFS will come ASAP. Can anyone doubt why this would not be a priority for DA so let him get on with it. No doubt we will get a comment shortly? In the meantime look at the value of what we have, now further derisked with the issue of all permits.
Take a look at the scoping study https://www.savannahresources.com/assets/mutamba-jangamo-project/
Ilmenite is now selling for more than $222 as per the best case scenario so the pre-tax NPV (10%discount rate) can be estimated at $335 million. Presently we own 20% ie $67 million or 5.2p per share. On completion of the PFS we will own 35% valued at 9.1p. On completion of the DFS we will own 51% valued at 13.3p. Not a bad investment given our additional lithium assets and our current valuation?

Are they not the Matthew King option shares being recorded. Listed at 2.7p while his option was at 2.76p so I’m not 100% sure?

Although they currently have a long term supply agreement with Gangfeng, it’s interesting to note their support for the European supply chain. “ Last but not least, Volkswagen has set itself the goal of promoting lithium production in Europe in the medium term - there are relevant deposits in Central and Southern Europe, for example”
https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/stories/2019/04/lithium-the-irreplaceable-element-of-the-electric-era.html#

I have been working on the basis of 15p which was a risk-adjusted figure of 12p for Portugal and 3p for Mozambique. The risk factor was however before we had the Moz licences confirmed so that should be increased now. So we have the opportunity to 6x the current depressed SP which I believe will begin to move forward as the year progresses and project milestones are achieved.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/cleantechnica.com/2020/01/06/volkswagen-id-3-update-more-delays-expected/amp/

Regarding recent suggestions that we were behind the curve in supplying the EV industry, it appears that delays in mainstream producers may play into our hands. Seems like designing and building EVs from scratch is not without its own challenges. No immediate software updates for early IDs, no room for granny in the back seat and I can’t hang my bike on the panoramic roof! I had my name on the pre-order list but the Tesla model 3 is looking so much more appealing now!

It’s the easiest strategy to recommend but often the hardest to follow: Buy only when it’s cheap, not when you think it’s going to get more expensive. Unfortunately fear of missing out tends to undermine resolve. I think your pain will be short lived however.